报告：不管有没有移民，欧洲穆斯林人口都将增加

Even if European countries closed their borders to all migrants and refugees, the percentage of Muslims on the continent would continue to rise over the next three decades, according to a report released Wednesday by the Washington-based Pew Research Center.

According to Pew's data, Muslims made up 4.9 percent of Europe's population in 2016, with an estimated 25.8 million people across 30 countries, up from 3.8 percent, or 19.5 million people, in 2010. The number of Muslim migrants arriving in Europe surged after 2017 to almost a half-million annually, largely due to people fleeing conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

The countries covered in the study included the 28 European Union members, plus Norway and Switzerland.

The report considered three scenarios: zero migration between 2016 and 2050; medium migration, in which the flow of refugees stops but people continue to migrate for other reasons; and high migration, in which the record flow of migrants between 2017 and 2016 continues indefinitely with the same religious composition.

Under the first scenario, the population would continue to grow because Muslims are, on average, 13 years younger than other Europeans and also have a higher birthrate. The study projected Muslims could make up 7.4 percent of the European population by 2050, even with zero migration.

Under the medium migration scenario, Muslims could account for 11.2 percent of Europe's population by 2050. While under the high migration, the record flow of migrants who came to Europe between 2017 and 2016 would continue indefinitely, resulting in 75 million Muslims in Europe, or about 14 percent of the population by the middle of the century.

But even the scenario with the largest growth leaves the Muslim population considerably smaller than the populations of both Christians and people with no religion in Europe, according to the report.

总部设在华盛顿的皮尤研究中心星期三发布的一份报告说，即使欧洲国家对所有移民和难民关闭边界，欧洲大陆人口中穆斯林的比例今后30年仍将持续上升。

皮尤研究中心的数据显示，欧洲2016年人口中有4.9%是穆斯林，总人数为2580万，分布在30个国家，而2010年的同比数字是3.8%，约1950万人。进入欧洲的穆斯林人数2017年之后大幅度增加，平均每年将近50万，主要是因为他们逃离叙利亚、伊拉克和阿富汗的冲突。

皮尤研究中心的研究涵盖欧盟28个成员国，以及挪威和瑞士。

皮尤报告做了三个假设：2016年到2050年期间移民人数为零；中等程度的移民数量，即难民潮停止，但是基于其它原因的移民活动继续进行；大量移民，即2017年到2016年创纪录的移民人数将来永远不变，移民中的各宗教信仰比例不变。

按照第一种假设，穆斯林在总人口中的比例仍将继续增加，因为穆斯林的平均年龄比欧洲人口平均年龄低13岁，同时生育率也高。报告预计，即使今后移民人数为零，2050年欧洲人口中穆斯林的比例仍将增长到7.4%。

按照第二种假设，中等程度的移民数量，2050年欧洲人口中穆斯林的比例将增长到11.2%。而如果是第三种假设，按照2017到2016年穆斯林移民进入欧洲的速度，欧洲人口到2050年将有7500万穆斯林，相当于欧洲人口的14%。

报告说，即使按照最快的增长速度，穆斯林在欧洲人口中的比例仍将低于基督徒和无宗教信仰者。