诺基亚和RIM还能支撑多久？

Never mind returning to their glory days, Research In Motion and Nokia look like terminal cases. Can either manage to survive as Apple and Samsung Electronics gobble up the profitable higher end of the smartphone market? Nokia can, probably. RIM's road looks much rockier.

Research In Motion（简称RIM）和诺基亚(Nokia)不要说重现昔日辉煌，它们现在的样子简直就像已经病入膏肓。在苹果(Apple)和三星电子(Samsung Electionics)占据智能手机市场有利可图的更高端部分之际，这两家公司能不能存活下去？诺基亚或许可以吧，但RIM的道路就显得崎岖多了。

Each company is betting that a new generation of devices will rescue it. Nokia's play is to replace its own smartphone operating system with Microsoft's; RIM is rebuilding its own operating system from the ground up.

两家公司都把自己的命运押在新一代手机身上。诺基亚的办法是用微软(Microsoft)的智能手机操作系统取代自己的系统，RIM则是自己重新打造一个操作系统。

Nokia at least has its new smartphones on store shelves, yet it is struggling to gain sales momentum. It didn't help when Microsoft recently announced that the next version of its phone operating system wouldn't be compatible with prior devices, effectively making old models obsolete. A 50% price cut that Nokia calls 'normal' quickly followed in the U.S. Nokia expects the current quarter to be challenging while it waits to release new devices, perhaps in time for Christmas and just in time to compete with Apple's next iPhone.

诺基亚至少已经有新的智能手机可卖，不过销售势头不是很好。微软最近宣布下一代手机操作系统不兼容以前的终端，这事实上会让使用微软操作系统的老款手机无法再用，对诺基亚自然会有不利影响。微软宣布这一消息后，诺基亚很快就在美国市场推出打对折的活动，并称这是“正常之举。诺基亚预计等待新手机发布的本季度将充满挑战。新机或许还能赶上圣诞购物季，并且刚好来得及与苹果(Apple)下一代iPhone竞争。

For its part, RIM has again pushed back the expected release date for BlackBerries based on its new operating system, BB10. Now they can't be expected until the first quarter of next year. When they finally do arrive, RIM will be making a play to be the fourth mobile ecosystem. Microsoft (together with Nokia) is struggling just to be the third. Even if RIM's new devices are great, it likely will be too late. Remember, critics actually loved the Palm Pre.

RIM则已再次推迟采用新操作系统“BB10的黑莓(BlackBerry)的发布日期。现在这些手机已经没有希望在明年一季度之前发布了。当真正发布的时候，RIM将努力争取成为第四个手机生态系统。微软（和诺基亚一道）也才刚好能够维持第三的位置。即使RIM的新手机非常出色，其上市时间可能也已经太晚了。请记住，智能手机Palm Pre的批评者实际上还是很喜欢它的。

Both companies seem to have a decent cash cushion, but perhaps not for long. Nokia had 4.2 billion ($5.16 billion) of net cash at the end of the last quarter, but it sees 1.2 billion of restructuring expenses over the next two years. RIM has $2.2 billion of net cash and $350 million of restructuring costs. More important is whether each will see operations become a bigger cash drain. That's tough to forecast, not knowing how quickly their franchises will continue to deteriorate. But one source of cash for both should go away, working capital benefits.

两家公司似乎都有较为雄厚的现金作为缓冲，但这些现金可能无法长久维持。截至上季度末，诺基亚有着42亿欧元（合51.6亿美元）的净现金，但它预计未来两年将产生12亿欧元的重组成本。RIM有22亿美元的净现金，预计重组成本为3.5亿美元。更重要的是两家公司的运营会不会消耗越来越多的现金。这很难预测，因为我们不知道它们的业务将以何种速度继续恶化。但两家公司的现金来源之一──流动资本效益应当会枯竭。

When companies shrink, they draw down inventories and collect on receivables while making smaller payments to suppliers. This can add cash to the balance sheet, but it's a gift that eventually stops giving. In the most recent quarter, Nokia generated 500 million of cash this way, and RIM generated $400 million.

当企业萎缩时，它们会降低库存、收取应收款项并减少对供应商的付款。这可以增加资产负债表上的现金，但这种馈赠最终会停止。在刚刚过去的这个季度，通过这种方式诺基亚产生了5亿欧元的现金，RIM产生了4亿美元的现金。

RIM's saving grace is supposed to be the fee stream generated from providing BlackBerry subscribers access to its proprietary network. But as Morgan Stanley analysts point out in a recent research note, the cash generated by this business should be consumed by its money-losing devices business. More ominously, RIM said in a recent Securities and Exchange Commission filing that some of its new products, including much-anticipated BB10 devices, won't use its network to the same extent as old devices, undercutting the revenue stream.

还好，RIM向黑莓手机用户提供专用网络服务，这应该能让它获得源源不断的服务费收入。但正如摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析师最近在研究报告中指出的，这块业务产生的现金应该会被RIM不断亏损的终端业务消耗。更加让人不安的是，RIM最近在提交给美国证券交易委员会(SEC)的备案文件里说，该公司的部分新产品（包括备受期待的BB10终端）不会像老款终端那样频繁地使用公司的专有网络。这会减弱RIM的收入流。

Each company has patents, though it can be difficult to determine their value. Nokia's bring in 500 million of license fees annually, which provides some comfort. And in Microsoft, Nokia at least has a rich and powerful sponsor that is invested in its success. RIM is on its own and likely to sink.

两家公司都有专利，但专利价值可能很难确定。诺基亚每年获得5亿欧元的授权费，多少让人安心。另外，至少还有微软这个钱多、权大的赞助商把自己的未来押在诺基亚的成败之上。RIM孤立无援，有可能沉入海底。