FT社评：奥巴马对缅甸应鼓励与施压并举

Choosing when to welcome a pariah state back into the international fold is fraught with risk. The ill-judged rehabilitation of Muammar Gaddafi in 2003 merely reinforced a despot. But Barack Obama has made the right decision to open the door to Myanmar with his historic presidential visit.

选择在什么时候接纳一个“贱民国家重返国际社会，这件事蕴含许多风险。国际社会错误地选择在2003年为穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲(Muammar Gaddafi)恢复名誉，结果只是长了这位“暴君的威风。但美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)对缅甸进行历史性访问、向其伸出橄榄枝，是一个正确的决定。

Human rights groups have attacked the US president for rushing to legitimise Myanmar’s nominally civilian government before democratic reforms take root. Thein Sein, the reform-minded president, has released hundreds of prisoners, ended media censorship and allowed democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy to enter parliament. But the government’s ambivalence in the face of what look increasingly like anti-Muslim pogroms in Rakhine state shows that human rights are far from entrenched. Many political prisoners also remain in jail, although 60 were set to be freed last night.

人权组织一直批评奥巴马操之过急，因为缅甸名义上的文人政府推行的民主改革还未稳固，他就要承认该政府的合法性。改革派的缅甸总统登盛(Thein Sein)已赦免数百名囚犯，停止了对媒体的审查，并已允许民主活动家昂山素季(Aung San Suu Kyi)领导的“全国民主联盟(National League for Democracy)进入议会。但面对发生在若开邦的、反穆斯林意味越来越浓重的大屠杀，缅甸政府态度暧昧，显示缅甸的人权状况仍然堪忧。尽管缅甸政府昨晚释放了60名政治犯，但还有许多政治犯仍被关在监狱里。

It is just for these reasons that the trip is well-timed. It has already prompted a raft of new initiatives on the eve of his arrival. But for reform to continue, Mr Thein Sein needs to show the old guard concrete results. Many still exercise influence in parliament and the government. There is frustration that the US has suspended rather than lifted sanctions. The first visit by a sitting US president is a very public signal that support will be forthcoming if the pace is kept up.

正是因为这些原因，奥巴马此行的时机恰到好处。在奥巴马抵达缅甸之前，缅甸政府已拿出了一系列新举措。但要继续推进改革，登盛必须让保守派看到实实在在的成果。如今在缅甸议会和政府中，仍有许多保守派在发挥影响。美国只是暂停了制裁，而没有取消制裁，这令缅甸的一些人感到失望。而头一次有一位美国现任总统来访，这是个非常公开的信号，暗示假如改革保持现有节奏，美国会提供更多支持。

Washington’s act is not selfless. Mr Obama’s six-hour visit is one stop on an Asian tour designed to promote the US as a counterbalance to China’s rising influence in the region. US companies are eager to seize opportunities presented by Myanmar’s rich natural resources.

华盛顿的举动并非没有私心。奥巴马对缅甸为时6小时的访问，是其亚洲之行的一部分。奥巴马此次访问亚洲，目的是传达这样一个信息：面对中国在亚洲影响力的日益扩大，美国可以成为一种制衡的力量。美国企业也急欲得到缅甸丰富的自然资源所带来的机会。

These are important considerations, but they cannot overshadow the urgent need to press Myanmar’s government, especially on human rights. Its record on protecting the ethnic minorities who make up 30 per cent of the population is dire. Two hundred people are dead and more than 100,000 displaced because of the violence in Rakhine.

这方面的考量很重要，但美国不应因此忽视一项更迫在眉睫的任务：敦促缅甸政府继续努力，特别是继续改善人权状况。缅甸政府在保护少数民族（占总人口的30%）方面的过往记录很差。若开邦的暴力事件已导致200人死亡，逾10万人流离失所。

Mr Thein Sein has for the first time hinted that this will be addressed. Mr Obama must stress to him that action should be swift and that human rights cannot be sacrificed to strategic and commercial interests. Sanctions once eased can be reinstated. Myanmar’s democratic progress may be fragile, but so too is its rehabilitation. Mr Obama has given Myanmar’s government the carrot of a symbolic presidential visit. But it is not yet time to put away the stick.

登盛已首次暗示这个问题将得到解决。奥巴马必须向其强调，缅甸政府必须尽快采取行动，不能因战略和商业利益而牺牲人权。制裁可以暂停，也可以恢复。缅甸的民主进程或许并不稳固，但缅甸政府刚刚得到恢复的合法性也并不稳固。奥巴马通过这次象征性的总统访问，给了缅甸政府一根胡萝卜，但现在还没到可以放下大棒的时候。