iPad Mini难以再为苹果创造奇迹

A generation ago, Apple ignored the lower end of the desktop computer market, a mistake that nearly killed the company. It doesn't want a repeat in mobile, though Tuesday's new iPad Mini may not be cheap enough to make much of a difference.

二十多年前，苹果公司(Apple)曾忽视了较低端的台式电脑市场，这个错误几乎令该公司毁于一旦。苹果不希望在移动设备市场上重蹈覆辙，不过该公司周二发布的新款iPad Mini可能不够便宜，难以对目前的局面产生太大的影响。

The iPad had a 68% share of the tablet market in the second quarter, estimates Strategy Analytics. But smaller, cheaper tablets like Amazon.com's Kindle Fire, Google's Nexus 7 and Samsung's Galaxy Tab may be starting to eat into the iPad's sales growth.

据市场研究机构Strategy Analytics的估计，今年第二季度，iPad在平板电脑市场上的占有率为68%，但亚马逊(Amazon.com)的Kindle Fire、谷歌(Google)的Nexus 7和三星(Samsung)的Galaxy Tab等尺寸更孝价格更低的平板电脑可能开始侵蚀iPad的销售增长。

During Tuesday's event to unveil the new iPad Mini, chief Tim Cook said Apple a couple of weeks ago surpassed 100 million iPads sold. That implies the company may have sold under 16 million in the quarter ended in September.

在周二举行的新款iPad Mini发布会上，苹果首席执行长库克(Tim Cook)说，苹果的iPad销售量几周前突破了1亿部。这意味着该公司在截至9月份的一个季度可能销售了不到1,600万部iPad。

That is fewer than the 17 million sold the prior quarter. It is possible that customers were delaying purchases in anticipation of the iPad Mini launch. Whatever the reason, that won't please analysts expecting Apple to report a bump up in iPad sales when it releases quarterly earnings Thursday.

这比之前一个季度销售的1,700万部有所减少。这可能是因为消费者预期iPad Mini即将推出，于是推迟了购买时间。但无论是什么原因，这都不会令分析人士感到满意。一些分析人士曾预计苹果周四发布季度业绩报告时将公布iPad销量上升。

And the iPad Mini, with a price tag of $329, may be too expensive to attract price-sensitive buyers that are turning to rivals. The Nexus 7 and Kindle Fire are substantially cheaper at $199. Apple shares quickly fell 2% when pricing of the new device was announced.

而起价329美元的iPad Mini可能太贵，难以吸引那些对价格比较在意的购买者，这些购买者纷纷开始转向苹果的竞争对手。Nexus 7和Kindle Fire的起价仅199美元，比苹果iPad Mini便宜很多。苹果公布了新款iPad Mini的定价后，其股价迅速下跌了2%。

On the one hand, the high price should protect Apple's sizable tablet gross margins, which Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha estimates at around 40%. Amazon, in contrast, likely doesn't do much better than break even on its tablet sales.

一方面，高价位应该会保护苹果在平板电脑销售上相当大的毛利润率。瑞信(Credit Suisse)分析师加查(Kulbinder Garcha)估计，苹果平板电脑的毛利润率约为40%。相比之下，亚马逊的平板电脑销售可能勉强不赔钱。

On the other hand, it may be worth sacrificing margins if that means more consumers get hooked on Apple's ecosystem. When consumers buy an iPad, they may be more inclined to buy an iPhone or a Mac. The iPod got consumers to put their music in iTunes, for example, encouraging them to jump to the iPhone when that product was released.

另一方面，如果牺牲利润率意味着更多的消费者会成为苹果一族，那么牺牲利润率可能是值得的。消费者购买iPad后，在选购智能手机或电脑时可能更倾向购买iPhone或Mac。比如，iPod使消费者将音乐放在iTunes中，让他们在iPhone发布后愿意买iPhone。

Considering repeat purchases of all of these products every few years, it makes sense for Apple to get consumers accustomed to its devices. But Apple isn't likely to drive its penetration that much deeper into the population with a too-expensive iPad Mini.

鉴于消费者每隔几年就会对手中的所有这些产品进行升级换代，苹果有理由让消费者习惯于其设备。但凭借过于昂贵的iPad Mini，苹果不太可能如此深入地向消费者渗透其产品。

A similar challenge faces Apple in smartphones. Currently, Apple is ceding a huge chunk of the market to cheap devices running Google's Android operating system.

苹果在智能手机市场也面临着类似的挑战。目前，苹果在这一市场的份额正在被搭载谷歌安卓(Android)操作系统的便宜设备大量抢占。

Consumers in emerging markets often can't afford high-end smartphones like the iPhone, which has a wholesale price of more than $600. Wireless carriers in those countries often won't subsidize the cost since customers aren't paying anything near as much as they do in, say, the U.S. for data and voice plans.

新兴市场的消费者常常买不起iPhone这样的高端智能手机。iPhone的批发价为600美元以上。这些国家的无线运营商常常不会为手机提供价格补贴，因为这些国家的消费者在数据和通话套餐方面远没有美国等国花得多。

Mr. Garcha estimates the market for smartphones over $500 will be 194 million units in 2015. While Apple sells some older model iPhones at lower prices, the largest segment of the market is still unaddressed.

加查估计，2015年500美元以上智能手机的市场规模将为1.94亿部。尽管苹果在以较低的价格销售部分老款iPhone，但仍没有涉及到智能手机市场中最大的一块。

For devices between $200 and $400, Mr. Garcha estimates 2015 unit sales of 315 million. Addressing that market may be necessary to promote growth before long. By 2014, the iPhone will be sold by a large majority of wireless carriers serving high-end customers world-wide.

加查估计，价格在200至400美元的智能手机2015年销量将为3.15亿部。不久之后，要想推动销售增长，可能有必要进入这个市常2014年前，iPhone将由大部分服务于全球高端客户的无线运营商销售。

Going cheap risks eating into sales of Apple's higher-margin models, but that may be a risk worth taking if it means Apple can cultivate an even bigger band of loyal users.

走低价路线可能侵蚀苹果利润率较高的产品的销售，但如果这意味着苹果能够培育一个更大的忠诚用户群，这个风险可能值得去冒。