Even if the process proves protracted, the American economy will eventually recover. Yet even as cyclical issues cease to dominate the economic conversation, it is likely that inequality will move to the forefront.
即使复苏过程最终证明是漫长的,但美国经济终将走向复苏。然而,就在周期议题不再主导经济对话之际,不平等问题很可能进入人们的视线。
There is no question that income is distributed substantially more unequally than it was a generation ago, with those at the very top gaining a greater share as even the upper middle class loses ground in relative terms. Those with less skill – especially men who in an earlier era would have worked with their hands – are losing ground not just in relative but also in absolute terms.
毫无疑问,当前收入分配的不平等程度比一代人以前高得多,最上层人士分得更大一块蛋糕,同时就连中上阶层的收入也相对萎缩。那些技能较低的人(尤其是那些昔日会从事体力劳动的男士),其收入无论按相对还是绝对值计算都在萎缩。
These issues frame an important part of the economic debate in this election year. Progressives argue that widening inequality jeopardises the legitimacy of our political and economic system. They argue that a time when the market is generating more inequality is no time to shift tax burdens from those with the highest incomes to the middle class, as has taken place in the past dozen years. And while recognising that innovators such as Apple co-founder Steve Jobs earned their billions providing great value to consumers and making substantial contributions to the US and global economies, they assert that the social value associated with the activities behind many other fortunes, especially in finance, is less apparent.
这些问题在这个选举年框定了经济辩论的一个重要部分。进步人士辩称,越来越大的不平等,威胁到我们政治和经济体系的合法性。他们辩称,在市场产生更多不平等的当今时代,不应再像过去十几年间的发展趋势那样,把税负重担从收入最高者转移到中产阶层。虽然他们承认,苹果(Apple)联合创始人史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)等创新者在为自己挣得数十亿身家的同时,也为消费者带来重大价值,为美国乃至全球经济做出重大贡献,但他们断言,与其他很多个人财富背后的活动(尤其是金融业)关联的社会价值并不是那么明显。
Conservatives argue that, in a world where everything is increasingly mobile, high tax rates run more risk than they once did of driving businesses and jobs overseas. They highlight the central role of entrepreneurship in advancing economic growth and note that, since most new ventures fail, the returns on successful ones have to be very large if entrepreneurship is going to flourish. They take umbrage at the suggestion there is something wrong with success on a grand scale. And they worry that policy measures taken to combat inequality directly will have perverse side effects.
保守人士则辩称,在一切都日益流动的当今世界,高税负把企业和就业赶到海外的风险比以前大多了。他们强调企业家精神在推动经济增长中的核心作用,并指出,由于多数初创企业都会失败,若要让企业家精神长盛不衰,成功创业的回报就必须非常可观。对于巨大成功有什么不对劲的说法,他们表示不齿。他们也担心,为直接消除不平等而采取的政策措施,将产生扭曲的副作用。
Unfortunately, the points on both sides of the argument have considerable force. While I support moves to make the tax system more progressive, the reality is that inequality is likely to remain high and continue to rise, even in the face of all that can responsibly be done to increase the burden on those with high income and redistribute the proceeds. Measures such as allowing unions to organise without undue reprisals and enhancing shareholders’ role in executive pay-setting are desirable. But they are unlikely even to hold at bay the trend towards increasing inequality.
遗憾的是,辩论双方的论点均有相当的说服力。虽然我支持采取措施提高税制的累进程度,但现实是,即便我们在负责任的限度内尽一切可能增加高收入者的负担,并重新分配增税所得,不平等程度很可能仍保持在高位,并且会继续上升。允许人们组织工会而不受到不合理的报复、提高股东在制定高管薪酬中的作用等措施是可取的。但是,此类措施甚至不太可能遏制不平等程度日益上升的趋势。
Where does this leave the public policy agenda? The global record of populist policies motivated by inequality concerns is hardly encouraging. Equally, passivity in the face of dramatic economic change is unlikely to be viable. Perhaps the focus needs to shift from inequality in outcomes, where attitudes divide sharply and there are limits to what can be done, to inequalities in opportunity. It is hard to see who could disagree with the aspiration to equalise opportunity or fail to recognise the manifest inequalities in opportunity today.
在这种情况下,公共政策议程应该何去何从?从全球记录看,出于对不平等的关切而制定的民粹主义政策难以令人鼓舞。同样,被动接受经济剧变也不太可行。或许,讨论的焦点需要从结果的不平等(这方面人们的态度分歧巨大,而能够做的又有限度)转移到机遇的不平等。很少有人不会认同机遇均等化的抱负,或者未能认识到当前机遇明显不均等的现象。
By definition, the number of children not born in to the top 1 per cent who move into the top 1 per cent must equal the number of those born into the top 1 per cent who move out of it over their lifetimes. So a serious programme to promote equal opportunity must both seek to enhance opportunity for those not in wealthy families, and to address some of the advantages enjoyed by the children of the fortunate.
按照定义,在其一生中,出生于占人口1%的上层社会之外的儿童跻身上层社会的人数,与出生于上层社会但未能保住地位的人数应该相等。因此,一项倡导机遇均等的认真的项目,必须既要寻求扩大未能出生于富有之家人士的机会,又要遏制富家子弟所享有的部分先天优势。
The most important step that can be taken to enhance opportunity is to strengthen public education. For the past decade we have focused on ensuring no child is left behind, and this must continue. But if we are to ensure everyone has a real chance of great success, we must also ensure every child in the public system can learn as much and go as far as their talent permits. This means judging schools on measures beyond the fraction of students who exceed some minimum. The leading universities have in the past 40 years, with the encouragement and support of the federal government, made a significant effort to recruit and support students from ethnic minorities. This should continue.
为扩大机遇,可以采取的一项最重要措施是加强公立教育。过去10年间,我们聚焦于确保没有一个儿童被落下,这一努力必须持续下去。但如果我们想要确保人人享有大获成功的真正机遇,我们还必须保证公立学校系统中的每一位孩子在学习和事业方面都能“才尽其用。这就意味着,评判学校的措施不能仅仅局限于一小部分学生是否超出了某些最低标准。过去40年间,领先大学在联邦政府的鼓励和支持下,大力招收和支持少数族裔的学生。这种局面应该持续下去。
But as things stand a student from a minority group who has strong admission text scores is considerably more likely to apply, and be admitted, to a leading university than a low-income student. It is time the best institutions undertook the kind of commitment to economic diversity that they have long mounted towards racial diversity. It is not realistic to expect that schools and universities dependent on charitable contributions will not be attentive to offspring of their supporters. Perhaps, though, the custom could be established that, for each “legacy slot, room would be made for one “opportunity slot.
但目前的情况是,一名入学考试分数高的少数族裔学生申请领先大学并被入取的可能性远高于低收入家庭学生。现在,最优秀的高校应当像它们多年来承诺实现种族多元化那样,承诺实现经济多元化了。期望依赖慈善捐赠的学校和大学不去照顾其支持者的后代是不现实的。但是,我们或许可以建立起这样的做法:对每一个“承袭位置,要留出一个“机遇位置。
What about the perpetuation of privilege? Parents always seek to help their children, and it is not realistic to think privileged parents will do any differently. But there is no reason why the estate tax should decrease relative to the economy at a time when great fortunes are increasingly dominant. Nor should tax-planning techniques that are de facto tax cuts only for those with millions of dollars of income and tens of millions in wealth continue to be legal.
应该如何对待特权传承?父母总是寻求帮助自己的孩子,认为有特权的父母不会从俗是不现实的。但是,在一个巨额财富日益占据主导地位的时代,遗产税相对于经济的份量不增反降是没有道理的。面向那些收入数百万美元、财富数千万美元的人士的税收规划操作(事实上是适用于这些人的减税措施),也不应继续合法下去。
These are some ideas for advancing equality of opportunity. There are many more. It is an aspiration those of every political stripe should share.
这些是促进机遇均等的一些构想,这样的构想还有很多。这是每一个政治派别都应分享的抱负。
The writer is Charles W.?Eliot university professor at Harvard
本文作者是美国哈佛大学(Harvard University)查尔斯·W·艾略特大学教授(Charles W. Eliot University Professor)
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