Lex专栏：铁矿石价格决定力拓兴衰

Get your ore in. The iron ore price has fallen by more than a third in the past year to $115 a tonne, although China is still buying up whatever Rio Tintocan produce, in spite of the country’s managed economic slowdown. Rio, with its multi-decade investment horizons, plans beyond short-term price variations. China’s slowdown could be shortlived if stimulus measures kick in during the fourth quarter. But Rio, which derived nine-10ths of its $5.2bn of underlying half-year earnings from iron ore, cannot be complacent: it is more exposed to the iron ore price than peers.

买进矿商股票吧。过去一年里，铁矿石价格下跌逾三分之一，至每吨115美元，尽管中国在有管理的经济放缓之际，仍在买下力拓(Rio Tinto)的全部供应。拥有几十年投资视野的力拓，在规划时不受短期价格变动的影响。中国的经济放缓可能是短暂的——如果刺激措施在第四季度落实到位。但力拓不能自满，其52亿美元的半年度基础利润中，90%来自铁矿石；它比业内同行更易受铁矿石价格影响。

The near one-fifth drop in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation to $8bn reported on Tuesday was almost entirely caused by the fall in iron ore. Contracts are at different prices and durations but, assuming steady fixed costs and other things being equal, a further one-third fall in the first-half average price of about $138 a tonne would roughly halve Rio’s ebitda to $4.2bn.

本周二力拓报告，其利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利(Ebitda)下跌近五分之一，至80亿美元，这几乎完全是因铁矿石价格下跌造成的。合同价格和期限各有不同，但假设固定成本稳定及其他因素相同，若价格在上半年每吨大约138美元的均价基础上再跌三分之一，那么力拓的Ebitda将差不多减半，至42亿美元。

For now, however, Rio is sitting pretty: it can mine the stuff and land it in China for $37 a tonne, assuming a freight rate of $7 a tonne. BHP Billiton’s figures are broadly similar. Unlike Anglo Americanand Xstrata, Rio shows no sign of dabbing the brake pedal on capital expenditure as it invests in increased output in Australia’s Pilbara region. Record first-half ore production and sales partly compensate for falling ore prices. Nor, with annual cash flow from operations at $7.8bn, is $7.6bn of capex a stretch. True, net debt rose 55 per cent to $13.2bn to fund capex, acquisitions, the dividend and share buybacks, but it is still below 1 times annualised ebitda. If prices keep falling, Rio should rethink its capital management and cut debt.

然而力拓目前还很不错：它能够以每吨37美元的成本，开采铁矿石并将其运至中国（假设运费是每吨7美元）。必和必拓(BHP Billiton)的数字也大致如此。与英美资源(Anglo American)和斯特拉塔(Xstrata)不同，力拓在资本开支方面几乎没有踩刹车的迹象，它为了在澳大利亚皮尔巴拉(Pilbara)地区增产而进行了投资。上半年铁矿石生产和销售创下纪录，在一定程度上弥补了价格下跌的影响。每年从运营得到78亿美元现金流的力拓，也不会对76亿美元的资本支出感到拮据。没错，净债务已增长55%，至132亿美元，以支持资本支出、收购、股息和股票回购，但它仍低于一倍的年度Ebitda。如果价格持续下跌，力拓应重新考虑资本管理，并削减债务。

Rio has to keep calm and mine on. But, trading on eight times forward earnings, its shares suggest investors have taken a shorter-term view and are discounting its iron ore bias.

力拓不得不保持镇定，继续采矿。但是，其股价所反映的仅仅8倍的预期市盈率显示，投资者的视线偏短，且计入了力拓依赖铁矿石这一点。

Lex专栏是由FT评论员联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析