苹果和Facebook给投资者的启示

Not paying attention to U.S. stocks recently? Perhaps the thrilling spectacle of the Olympics kept you away from your portfolio. Or the no-less-engrossing public split of Tom Cruise and Katie Holmes made you forget about your 401(k). Maybe it was the languid summer, William Shatner's return as Priceline's 'negotiator' or the struggles of the Red Sox and Arsenal.

最近没有关注美股的走势？或许是扣人心弦的奥运大戏让你忘记了自己的投资组合，也可能是汤姆·克鲁斯(Tom Cruise)和凯蒂·霍尔姆斯(Katie Holmes)同样引人入胜的高调分手让你忘记了自己的退休金计划。还有可能是因为夏日炎炎让人打不起精神，威廉·夏纳(William Shatner)重新出演在线旅游服务公司Priceline广告中的“谈判家，或波士顿红袜队(Red Sox)和阿森纳(Arsenal)遇到了困难。

Whatever the reason, here is a quick way to get reacquainted with recent stock-market history: Slide open your iPhone, check your Facebook page and you are done.

不管是什么原因，这里给你介绍一条温习股市近况的捷径：打开iPhone，查看Facebook页面，搞定。

That's right. The last few months in the world of equities can be summed up in the opposing fortunes of Apple Inc. and Facebook Inc. One is sitting atop the corporate world, having just been crowned the largest-ever U.S. company by market capitalization. (There is an asterisk, but more on that later.) The other is struggling with a share price that has nearly halved since a messy initial public offering in May.

没错。股市过去几个月的情况可以用苹果(Apple Inc.)和Facebook Inc.截然不同的命运加以总结。一个高居企业界榜首，刚刚获得史上市值最高的美国公司的头衔（有些情况需要解释，过会我们再说）。另一个的股价从5月份乱糟糟地上市以来已经下跌近半。

The gap between the values placed by investors on Apple and Facebook -- around $621 billion and $42 billion, respectively -- is large enough to fit the economy of South Africa. But the distance between the yin and the yang of the U.S. stock market is more telling than that and offers three insights into investors' current thinking.

投资者对苹果和Facebook的估值分别约为6,210亿美元和420亿美元，两者之间的鸿沟装得下整个南非经济。但美股两极之间的距离告诉我们的还不止这一点，它给了我们三条有关当前投资者思维的启示。

First, pervasive uncertainty and ultralow interest rates are prompting the market to look at the long term. By ascribing such a large value to Apple, investors are betting on the company being alive and well for a long time.

首先，无处不在的不确定性和超低的利率促使市场着眼于长远。给予苹果如此高的估值，投资者实际上是在赌：苹果将长期生存，而且活得很健康。

This isn't just a gut reaction but a belief in Apple's continued ability to generate profits. Low rates help this process by effectively reducing the value of money invested today -- think of the meager interest you get from your bank -- and increasing the importance of future returns.

这不只是一种本能反应，也是相信苹果将来还能够继续产生利润。低利率有助于投资者着眼长期，因为它实际上降低了今天所投入资金的价值（想想你把钱存在银行那点微薄的利息）、增加了将来所取得回报的价值。

'What we are seeing with Apple's rise and Facebook fall is a long-term story,' says Frank Partnoy, a professor of finance and law at the University of San Diego, whose latest book, 'Wait,' extols the merits of thinking before acting. 'People are looking at the two business models and saying: 'Apple is going to be around and Facebook might or might not be around.''

圣迭戈大学(University of San Diego)金融与法律教授弗兰克·帕特诺伊(Frank Partnoy)说，苹果崛起与Facebook衰落体现的是一个长期概念；人们看着这两种商业模式说，苹果会活下去，Facebook可能会活下去，也可能活不下去。他的最新力作《等待：延迟的艺术与科学》(Wait: The Art and Science of Delay)赞美了三思而后行的价值。

If the thought of Facebook disappearing sounds preposterous, glance, if you will, at the scrap heap of once-hot technology companies -- from Netscape Communications Inc. to Myspace (formerly owned by The Wall Street Journal's parent company, News Corp.) -- or the army of severely wounded firms such as Nokia Corp, Hewlett-Packard Co. and Research In Motion Ltd.

如果你觉得Facebook销声匿迹的想法听起来荒唐可笑，不妨看看曾经红极一时的科技公司──如网景(Netscape Communications Inc.)，如《华尔街日报》母公司资讯集团(News Corp.)曾经拥有的Myspace──留下的烂摊子，也不妨看看诺基亚(Nokia Corp)、惠普(Hewlett-Packard Co.)和Research In Motion Ltd.等众多伤痕累累的公司。

Apple could go the same way, but investors clearly don't think so, for reasons including a top-notch brand, a strong patent position (as Samsung Electronics Co. just found out), its cash pile and its record of innovation and productivity. On average, Apple's employees generate 64% more revenue than Facebook's workers.

苹果也有可能走上同样的道路，但显然投资者不是这么认为。他们的理由包括：苹果拥有一流的品牌，专利地位占优势（三星电子刚刚领教过），现金充足，在创新和效率方面成绩显赫。平均来讲，苹果员工创造的收入比Facebook员工多64%。

The second message concerns the companies' management teams, which are both led by rookie chief executives. The difference between Tim Cook and Mark Zuckerberg, however, is that the former is succeeding a legend while the latter has been hailed as a legend in the making.

第二条启示与两家公司的管理层有关。两支团队都由上任不久的首席执行长率领，但蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)与马克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)的区别在于，前者是在继承传奇，后者被认为是一个仍在创造中的传奇。

So far, the market has been unequivocal: Since Steve Jobs's death, Apple's share price has risen 78%. Since Mr. Zuckerberg became CEO of a public company, Facebook's shares are down 49%.

到目前为止，市场对此的反应是毫不含糊的。自史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)去世以来，苹果股价累计上涨了78%。从扎克伯格当上上市公司CEO以来，Facebook股价累计下跌了49%。

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a management professor at Yale, believes the pre-IPO hype surrounding Facebook may have clouded its executives' judgement. 'There was a grandiosity about the Facebook's management team that was problematic,' he told me.

耶鲁大学(Yale)管理学教授杰弗里·索南菲尔德(Jeffrey Sonnenfeld)认为，IPO之前有关Facebook的炒作可能影响了管理层的判断。他对笔者讲，当时外界夸大了Facebook问题重重的管理团队。

Mr. Sonnenfeld, an expert on how companies and executives can bounce back from serious setbacks, believes Mr. Zuckerberg shouldn't pull his hoodie over his eyes. 'Going into denial mode would only get employees and investors more anxious,' he said.

索南菲尔德是研究公司和经理人如何从严重挫败中东山再起的专家。他认为扎克伯格不应该用连帽衫的帽子遮住自己的双眼。他说，进入“否认模式只会让员工和投资者更加担心。

Facebook declined to comment. Apple didn't respond to a request for comment.

Facebook拒绝置评。苹果没有回复置评请求。

The third issue is whether Apple's record value and Facebook's stock plunge should be seen as 'sell' and 'buy' signs, respectively, as per Warren Buffett's famous aphorism about being greedy when others are fearful and vice-versa.

第三个问题是，根据沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)“别人恐惧我贪婪、别人贪婪我恐惧的名言，是否应该将苹果创纪录的估值和Facebook股价的大幅下跌分别视为“卖出和“买入的信号。

I would point to two sets of numbers. First, once inflation is taken into account, Apple is smaller than Microsoft Corp., General Electric Co. and two other tech giants at their peaks. Optimists argue that is because Apple has room to expand, while the pessimists counter that it underlines fears of a slowdown in growth once the products developed in Mr. Jobs's 'skunk works' run out.

让我来说的话，请看两组数字。首先，如果把通货膨胀因素算进去，苹果的市值低于微软(Microsoft Corp.)、通用电气(General Electric Co.)和另外两家科技巨头的鼎盛时期。乐观派认为这是因为苹果还有扩张的空间，悲观派认为这反映了投资者暗中的一种担忧：一旦乔布斯“臭鼬工场开发出来的产品用完，苹果的增长可能就会减速。

The other data point is the price/earnings ratio: Apple is trading at less than 13 times next year's estimated earnings, while Facebook is at around 30 times.

另一组数据是市盈率。根据未来一年预期利润计算，苹果的市盈率不到13倍，Facebook市盈率在30倍左右。

Despite its reputation for 'irrational exuberance' and short-termism, the market appears remarkably cool and long-sighted in judging the prospects of two era-defining technology giants.

尽管市场以其“非理性繁荣和短视近利闻名，但在判断两家划时代科技巨头的前途时，却显得出奇的冷静和长远。