对朝非法贸易影响制裁效果

It is difficult to gauge the impact of the increased sanctions imposed on North Korea, with reports of both plummeting exports in the last year and increasing illicit trade of banned minerals and arms.

U.S. President Donald Trump's “maximum pressure” strategy aims to increase sanctions on North Korea and force the Kim Jong Un government to seek relief by agreeing to give up its threatening nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program, or face increasing hardship and possible collapse from within. If sanctions fail to end the North Korean nuclear threat, the Trump administration has emphasized it is prepared to use military force, as well.

The latest U.S.-led round of sanctions at the United Nations Security Council, which were imposed in August and September of 2017, produced a total export ban on North Korea's $3 billion coal and other mineral industries, its $800 million clothing manufacturing output, and its lucrative seafood industry, as well as cutting oil imports by a third.

China, which accounts for over 90 percent of North Korea's total trade, reported a 37 percent drop in exports from the North in 2017 as a result of the sanctions. If fully enforced, the restrictions would cut the North's exports by 90 percent in 2018, a loss estimated to be worth $2.3 billion. Independent media reports have confirmed significantly reduced trade and business activity in Dandong, the Chinese border city where most trade with North Korea occurs.

A number of Chinese banks have also reportedly restricted North Korea financial activities, in compliance with U.N. sanctions, which is rapidly reducing Pyongyang's foreign currency reserves.

There are concerns that China, Russia and other counties are illicitly bolstering the North Korean economy through the smuggling of banned commodities, along with arms and chemical weapons sales, and cyber attacks.

Portions of a confidential United Nations report that was recently made public said North Korea earned close to $200 million from exporting coal and other banned commodities last year by using false documents and complicit foreign companies in China, Malaysia, Russia and Vietnam.

While Beijing and Moscow voted in favor of imposing tough sanctions on North Korea in the Security Council, both also want to maintain economic and political stability on the Korean Peninsula, and have called for increased negotiations to peacefully resolve the nuclear stand-off.

There have been reports that Russia is becoming a new transit hub for banned North Korean coal to compensate for the export ban in China. Moscow and Pyongyang have denied these illicit coal trade accusations. Even if true, Russia accounts for only 2 percent of North Korea's trade.

In recent months Japan also reported four suspected illegal transfers at sea between sanctioned North Korean vessels and international ships that were witnessed by surveillance aircraft.

The U.S. in February issued new unilateral sanctions on companies and vessels linked to North Korean shipping to restrict illicit ship- to-ship transfers. Washington tried to include forced maritime interceptions of North Korean vessels in the last round of U.N. sanctions but could not convince Chins and Russia to agree.

朝鲜去年出口额骤降，但同时矿物和武器非法贸易增加，使得目前对朝鲜实施更严厉制裁的影响很难衡量。

美国总统川普的“最大压力”战略旨在增加对朝鲜的制裁，迫使金正恩政府同意放弃其威胁性的核武器和弹道导弹计划，否则陷入更大的困境，可能导致内部崩溃。如果制裁无法结束朝鲜的核威胁，川普政府强调也将准备使用武力。

在2017年8月和9月实施的、由美国主导的联合国安理会最新一轮对朝制裁，包括全面禁止朝鲜价值30亿美元的煤炭和其他矿物的出口，其8亿美元的服装制造业产出，其利润丰厚的海鲜产业，以及削减石油进口的三分之一。

朝中贸易占朝鲜贸易总额的90％以上。中国称2017年对朝出口额由于制裁而下降37％。如果制裁全面执行，将导致2018年朝鲜出口减少90％，损失估计大约23亿美元。独立媒体消息证实，在与朝鲜贸易最集中的中国边境城市丹东，贸易和商业活动明显减少。

据报道，根据联合国的制裁措施，一些中国银行也限制了朝鲜的金融活动，导致平壤的外汇储备迅速降低。

但有人担心，中国、俄罗斯和其他国家通过走私禁运商品、化学武器，以及网络攻击等非法活动支撑朝鲜经济。

最近公布的一份联合国机密报告的部分内容显示，朝鲜去年通过使用虚假文件，与在中国、马来西亚、俄罗斯和越南的外国公司共同进行的煤炭和其他被禁商品贸易，为朝鲜盈利近2亿美元。

虽然北京和莫斯科投票支持安理会对朝鲜实施强硬制裁，但两国都希望维持朝鲜半岛的经济和政治稳定，并呼吁加强谈判以和平解决在朝鲜核问题上的对峙。

有报道称，俄罗斯正在成为朝鲜禁运煤炭的新中转枢纽，以填补中国的出口禁令带来的空白。莫斯科和平壤否认了这些非法煤炭贸易的指控。不过即使事实如此，俄罗斯也只占朝鲜贸易的2％。

日本近几个月来还报告说，侦察机的信息显示了4起涉嫌在受到制裁的朝鲜船只和国际船只之间的海上非法转运。

美国2月份对与朝鲜有关的航运公司和船只公布了新的单方面制裁措施，以限制船对船的非法转运。华盛顿试图在上一轮联合国制裁中采取强制拦截朝鲜船只的措施，但无法说服中国和俄罗斯就此达成一致。