联想：成为PC老大后未来仍不确定

In the global personal-computer market, being No. 1 is good, but not good enough. That is what Lenovo will discover when it claims the top spot in PC shipments this year.

在全球个人电脑市场当老大是件好事，但还不够好。联想(Lenovo)在取得今年PC出货量第一名的成绩时就会发现这一点。

Lenovo's surge up the rankings is impressive. The Chinese firm has gone from fourth place in global PC shipments in 2010 to second place in the third quarter of 2012, according to data from industry experts IDC. Gartner, another research firm, says Lenovo already has overtaken Hewlett-Packard to claim the top spot.

联想排名的迅速上升的确让人印象深刻。据行业专家IDC的数据，这家中国公司已从2010年全球PC出货量的第四名，上升到2012年第三季度的第二名。根据另一家公司Gartner的排名，联想已经取代惠普(Hewlett-Packard)成为PC出货量最大的厂商。

Trouble is, sustaining the breakneck growth that catapulted Lenovo into first place looks tough. The company is in a sweet spot, geographically speaking, with exposure to fast-growing China, the rest of Asia, and Latin America.

问题在于，联想要保持跃居第一名的那种高速增长显得非常艰难。从地理角度来说，联想所处位置得天独厚，它在高增长的中国、亚洲其他地区和拉丁美洲都有投资。

But the view of Lenovo as an emerging-market play is exaggerated. Mature markets - where the PC market is shrinking - accounted for 42% of the company's sales in the 12 months ended March 2012.

但把联想看成新兴市场题材股就过于夸大其辞了。截至2012年3月份的12个月期间，PC市场容量正在萎缩的成熟市场占联想销售收入的42%。

Boosting thin operating-profit margins - just 2.3% in the second quarter - will also be a challenge. Lenovo has succeeded in sustaining operating margins in markets where it has a dominant position: They were 6.5% for its China PC business in the second quarter. But in much of the rest of the world, margins are vanishingly small. Making gains, when HP is promising to compete more aggressively, could be tough.

提升本就微薄的运营利润率──第二季度仅为2.3%──也会是一个挑战。联想在它处于支配地位的市场倒是维持了运营利润率，比如二季度在中国PC市场的利润率就有6.5%。但在世界上其他很多地区，其利润率却是微乎其微。在惠普放言将展开更大攻势的情况下，提高利润率可能会非常困难。

There are potential positive catalysts. David Daoud of IDC says that the launch of Windows 8 by Microsoft represents an opportunity for PC makers to escape the 'good enough' consumer mindset, whereby they are reluctant to pay a premium for superior products. If consumers are willing to open their wallets to pay for new features like touch screens, this could be an opportunity for Lenovo, which has launched four new devices designed with the Windows 8 system in mind.

某些因素可能会成为有益的业绩催化剂。IDC的达乌德(David Daoud)说，微软(Microsoft)的Windows 8使PC生产商有机会打破消费者安于现状、不愿花更高价钱购买更优产品的心态。如果消费者愿意花钱购买触摸屏等新的功能，那么这对联想来说可能就是一个机会。联想已经推出四款在设计时照顾到Windows 8系统的新设备。

The firm is also betting that smartphones will be a money spinner. Growth has been explosive, with Lenovo claiming 11% of the Chinese market in the second quarter, according to IDC, and moving into India and Indonesia. Competition from Samsung, HTC, and Huawei is tough. But Lenovo's chief executive, Yang Yuanqing, says he expects the China smartphone business to show a profit inside the next two to three quarters.

联想也在下注于智能手机，希望它将来成为一个摇钱树。联想在智能手机领域实现了飞快的增长，据IDC的数据，第二季度它占据中国市场11%的份额。同时它也在向印度和印度尼西亚挺进。三星(Samsung)、宏达国际(HTC)、华为(Huawei)带来了激烈的竞争，但联想首席执行长杨元庆说，他预计公司的中国智能手机业务将在未来两到三个季度之内实现盈利。

Lenovo is confident that rapid growth can be sustained. Mr. Yang says a shift to profitability in the PC business in emerging markets outside China - where Lenovo has been paring losses for the last few quarters - is imminent. But with the stock trading at 12.6 times forecast earnings for the next 12 months, compared with four times for HP and 5.2 times for Dell, investors are already paying a premium for Lenovo. With success priced in, there's little room for a slip.

联想相信这种高增长可以维持。杨元庆说，过去几个季度联想在中国以外新兴市场的PC业务一直在缩减亏损，盈利指日可待。但是，联想相比未来12个月预期利润的市盈率为12.6倍，而相比之下惠普、戴尔(Dell)分别为4倍和5.2倍，投资者已经在为联想支付溢价。联想的成功已反映在股价之中，几乎不存在上涨空间。