“代沟”导致苹果iPhone销量不及预期

As history repeats itself, those anxious to snap up Apple shares are catching a break.

随着历史重演，急着抢购苹果(Apple)股票的人们歇下来了。

iPhone sales were disappointing in the fiscal third quarter through June, causing Apple to miss analysts' estimates for revenue and earnings per share. Analysts had expected Apple would sell about 28 million units of its flagship device. It sold just 26 million. As a result, Apple stock dropped 5% in after-market trading Tuesday.

截至6月份的第三财季，iPhoned的销量低于预期，造成苹果营收和每股收益都没有赶上分析师的估计。之前分析师预计苹果这款旗舰产品会卖出大约2,800万部，结果只卖出2,600万部。受此影响，苹果股价在周二盘后交易中下跌了5%。

Flashback to last year. In the quarter ending September, analysts had expected iPhone unit sales would be 20 million and Apple sold just 17 million. Shares dropped 5% the following day. But customers were holding back on purchasing a new iPhone, waiting for the release of what ultimately turned out to be the iPhone 4S.

让我们回到去年。在截至9月份的季度，分析师本以为iPhone销量将达到2,000万部，实际上苹果只卖出1,700万部。第二天苹果股价下跌了5%。但当时消费者是在等iPhone 4S发布，所以克制了购买iPhone的欲望。

Something similar likely is happening again this year as customers wait for the next iPhone to be released in the fall. And this cycle should prove more significant as the next iPhone is likely to work with carriers' next-generation LTE standard. It may also be compatible for the first time with the largest carrier network in the world─China Mobile. There are over 100 million high-end subscribers on China Mobile's network that may be interested in buying the coveted device. China Mobile customers are so anxious to buy iPhones that millions already use 'unlocked' models even though they operate more slowly on its network.

今年可能有类似情绪正在上演，因为消费者都在等待下一代iPhone在秋季发布。而且现在这个周期应该会更加明显，因为下一代iPhone很有可能兼容运营商新一代LTE标准，并且还有可能首次兼容世界最大运营商──中国移动(China Mobile)的网络。中国移动可能有超过1亿的高端用户有兴趣购买备受追捧的iPhone。中国移动用户出于对iPhone的渴望，不顾使用中国移动网络速度更慢，已有数百万人已经用上了“解锁版iPhone。

Meanwhile, sales of iPads were impressive. Apple sold 17 million of the devices, ahead of analysts' estimate of about 15 million. And, speaking of China, Apple last quarter didn't benefit from sales of its latest model iPad in the China market. It only went on sale there this month.

与此同时，iPad销量也相当惊人。苹果卖出了1,700万台iPad，超过分析师估计的1,500万台左右。至于中国，苹果上季度并没有在中国市场销售最新款iPad，本月才在中国上市。

With $117 billion of cash on its balance sheet, Apple's enterprise value is roughly $420 billion. That's a tidy valuation, but it actually looks reasonable relative to the next twelve months' expected free cash flow of around $50 billion. Even in an uncertain economy, investors should take advantage of a falling Apple.

凭借资产负债表上1,170亿美元的现金，苹果企业价值在4,200亿美元左右。这是一个很高的估值，但相对于未来一年预计约500亿美元的自由现金流，这个估值实际上显得合理。即便是在经济充满不确定性的当下，投资者也应抓住“苹果坠落的机会。