岛屿争端打击日本对华出口

Japan’s exports to China fell sharply last month from a year ago, highlighting the effect on trade of a -territorial dispute between Asia’s two largest economies.

日本对华出口上月大幅下滑，突显亚洲两大经济体之间一场领土纠纷对贸易产生影响。

According to yesterday’s preliminary data from the finance ministry, shipments to China from Japan dropped 14.1 per cent in September from a year -earlier, accelerating from a 9.9 per cent fall in August. The figures show that the stand-off over a group of islands in the East China Sea, administered by Japan but also claimed by China and Taiwan, is exacerbating difficulties for exporters already hit by sluggish demand in developed -economies and a persistently strong yen.

根据日本财务省昨日发布的初步数据，9月份日本对中国出口同比减少14.1%，相比8月份9.9%的同比跌幅有所加快。数据显示，围绕东海一个群岛的对峙，正使本已受到发达经济体需求不振和日元汇率居高不下打击的日本出口商处境更加艰难。这个群岛由日本实际管辖，但中国和台湾都宣称拥有其主权。

Overall, shipments from Japan slid 10.3 per cent in September from a year earlier, knocked by enduring weakness in Europe, resulting in a trade deficit of Y559bn ($7bn), slightly wider than expected. Imports rose 4.1 per cent, as Japan bought more oil and liquefied natural gas to offset lost nuclear capacity.

总体而言，日本对外出口在9月份同比减少10.3%，受到欧洲持续疲弱的打击，其结果是，日本出现5590亿日元（合70亿美元）的贸易赤字，略高于预期。进口增长4.1%，原因是日本增加购买石油和液化天然气，以抵消核电装机容量的损失。

The subdued data raise the risk of a recession in the world’s third largest economy in the third and fourth quarters, analysts said, while adding to pressure on policy makers at the Bank of Japan to come up with further stimulus in a meeting of the central bank early next week.

分析师们表示，这些黯淡的数据加大了全球第三大经济体在今年第三和第四季度陷入衰退的风险，同时给日本央行(BoJ)的政策制定者带来更大压力，要求他们在下周初央行会议上拿出进一步刺激措施。

The dispute over the islands, called the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China, led to mass anti-Japanese protests across China and boycotts of Japanese goods after Tokyo announced its purchase of three of the islands from their private owners in -September.

在日本中央政府9月宣布从私人所有者手中买下其中三个岛屿后，围绕相关岛屿的纠纷——日本称其为尖阁诸岛(Senkaku)，中国称其为钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿——在中国多个城市引发大规模反日抗议，还导致中国人抵制日本产品。

While Japan’s imports from China were up 3.8 per cent, boosted by shipments of Apple’s iPhone 5, exports of consumer goods such as cars and motorcycles collapsed, dropping 45 per cent and 31 per cent respectively. Exports of electrical apparatus and photographic supplies also recorded double-digit percentage falls. The biggest contribution to the overall 14.1 per cent fall in exports, however, was in the industrial machinery sector.

在苹果(Apple) iPhone 5发货量增长的推动下，9月日本从中国进口增长3.8%，但日本对华出口的消费者产品暴跌，其中汽车和摩托车出口分别下滑45%和31%。电器和照相器材的出口也出现两位数跌幅。不过，造成日本对华出口同比下滑14.1%的最大因素来自工业机械行业。

Takahiro Sekido, Japan strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishiand a former central bank official, said the outlook for demand from China, Japan’s most important trading partner, remained “very pessimistic because of the “severe political turmoil.

三菱东京日联银行(Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi)日本策略师、曾任职于日本央行的关户孝洋(Takahiro Sekido)表示，作为日本最重要的贸易伙伴，中国的需求前景仍“非常令人悲观，原因是存在“严重的政治动荡。

Kyohei Morita, chief Japan economist at Barclays, said export -figures for November – when China’s Communist party is due to hand power to a new generation of leaders – would be critical in determining the outlook for the trading relationship.

巴克莱(Barclays)首席日本经济学家森田恭平(Kyohei Morita)表示，11月（届时中国共产党的下一代领导人将接掌权力）的出口数据对于确定两国贸易关系的前景将是至关重要的。

The shaky trade picture raises expectations of further stimulus from the BoJ when it meets to present its semi-annual outlook on the economy on October 30.

贸易形势不佳，加大了外界对于日本央行将出台进一步刺激措施的期待。日本央行定于10月30日开会，陈述其半年度经济前景报告。

The bank refrained from easing at its first meeting this month, after expanding its asset-purchasing programme – its main easing tool, with interest rates near zero – in September.

日本央行在9月份扩大其资产购买计划（在利率接近零的情况下，这是其主要宽松工具）之后，在本月的第一次会议上没有进一步放松政策。

Speaking on Fuji TV on Sunday, economy minister Seiji Maehara said Japan was “falling short of the aggressive commitments of other major central banks to revive their economies.

日本经济财政大臣前原诚司(Seiji Maehara)周日在富士电视台(Fuji TV)上表示，相比其它大型经济体央行对于提振经济的激进承诺，日本“做得不到位。

Pressure on the BoJ to ease “is a certainty, said Masamichi Adachi, a senior economist at JPMorgan in Tokyo, in a report last week. JPMorgan is one of several banks to predict a recession in Japan.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)驻东京的高级经济学家正道安达(Masamichi Adachi)上周在一份报告中表示，日本央行受到放松政策的压力“是必定会发生的事。摩根大通是预测日本陷入衰退的数家银行之一。