Lex专栏：摩根士丹利需扭转颓势

In the first quarter of this year, as global capital markets soared, Morgan Stanleyreceived a big boost from bond sales and trading, which propelled earnings past expectations and inspired optimism that the bank’s turnround was progressing.

今年第一季度，随着全球资本市场上涨，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的业绩通过债券销售和交易获得大幅提升，盈利情况超过预期。这激发了投资者的乐观情绪，他们认为该行情况正在好转。

Sadly, the market rally, and the good feelings that came with it, evaporated in the second quarter. The US bank’s sales and trading revenues from fixed income and commodities were just $770m (excluding benefits from changes in the value of Morgan Stanley’s own debt). That is down from $2.6bn in the first quarter.

遗憾的是，市场止跌回升的势头以及随之而来的乐观情绪，在第二季度消失得无影无踪。这家美国银行通过固定收益和大宗商品业务取得的销售和交易收入仅7.7亿美元（其中不包括摩根士丹利自身债务价值变化带来的收益）。这个数字比第一季度的26亿美元低70%左右。

Of course, some of that 70 per cent decline can be pinned on a market downturn driven by client anxiety, in particular over Europe’s debt crisis. But not all of it. Morgan Stanley underperformed peers, too. The comparable fixed-income business across at Goldman Sachs, for example, fell just 37 per cent.

当然，出现这种状况的部分原因在于客户们的紧张情绪（尤其是对欧债危机的担心）引起市场状况恶化。但这不是全部原因。摩根士丹利的业绩也落后于同行。比如说，高盛(Goldman Sachs)的同类固定收益业务只下跌了37%。

Morgan Stanley tried to point the finger at Moody’s, the rating agency, whose impending downgrade on the bank (from A2 to Baa1) cost the bank $225m – and supposedly kept bankers busy reassuring clients and counterparties, rather than drumming up new business.

摩根士丹利也试图把这种状况归咎于评级机构穆迪(Moody's)。穆迪宣布要调低摩根士丹利的评级（从A2调降到Baa1），导致该行付出了2.25亿美元的成本。此举据称还使银行家忙于安抚顾客和交易对手，无暇拓展新业务。

The broker’s turnround strategy includes refocusing the fixed-income business on flow trading rather than structured products, which will require more capital under the new regulations. Then there is the tie-up of its wealth management business with Smith Barney, the retail brokerage. This should benefit from scale and will be a nice earner if markets recover.

这家经纪商为扭转经营状况而制定的战略之一是，将固定收益业务的重心由结构性产品重新转向“流交易(flow trading)。按照新的监管规则，这种做法需要更多资本。此外，该行将其财富管理业务与零售经纪商美邦(Smith Barney)进行了整合。整合将产生规模效应，在市场复苏时将体现出良好的盈利能力。

It does not need much capital, either. That integration is now all but done.

此举也不需要多少资金。整合如今已基本完成。

It was a lousy quarter. But with the stock down 36 per cent over the past year (including a 5 per cent drop yesterday), Morgan Stanley needs to prove it can be more than a victim of circumstance.

这是一个糟糕的季度。但摩根士丹利过去一年间股价已累计下跌36%（包括昨日下跌的5%），因此该行必须证明，面对大势的不景气，自己不会“坐以待毙。