Lex专栏：绿城“钓到”九龙仓

If mergers are corporate marriages, strategic stakes are the equivalent of success at the school disco. Congratulations to Greentown China, a Chinese property developer with one of the sector’s weakest balance sheets, for landing a catch as mighty as Wharf Holdings, the Hong Kong property conglomerate. Those left on the dance floor will be reviewing their prospects of getting hitched.

如果说合并是企业与企业的“联姻，那么战略股权交易就相当于在学校舞会上成功“牵手。恭喜一下绿城中国(Greentown China)吧！作为中国房地产开发行业内资产状况最弱的公司之一，绿城竟然“钓到了像香港房地产开发集团九龙仓(Wharf Holdings)这样实力雄厚的企业。那些留在舞池里的人肯定在想，这二者“牵手后是否会“喜结连理。

The additional 22 per cent stake Wharf has taken in Greentown for HK$2.6bn is worth nearly HK$1bn more thanks to Monday’s one-third bounce in the target’s shares. Wharf also holds a further HK$2.6bn of convertible bonds in Greentown. The case for Wharf’s interest in Greentown (rated triple-C by Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s) is simple: decent land bank, shame about the balance sheet. The danger for Wharf is that Greentown’s management, with nearly half of the shares, remains in charge. After all, those managers pushed leverage to the extremes, which necessitated this rescue. Net debt relative to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation rose from 2 times in 2006, when Greentown listed, to 18 times in 2010 and a still-worrying 7 times in 2011. Greentown has promised sounder finances. Wharf’s stake is a start – but only that.

九龙仓斥资26亿港元增持绿城22%的股份。得益于周一绿城股价反弹三分之一，这些股份已升值将近10亿港元。九龙仓同时还增持绿城价值26亿港元的可转债。九龙仓之所以对绿城——穆迪(Moody's)和标普(S and P)对绿城的评级均为CCC——感兴趣，原因很简单：绿城地产储备可观，而资产状况窘迫。九龙仓面临的一个风险因素是绿城的管理层，后者握有绿城近半数股份，仍然掌管公司大权。毕竟，正是这个管理层把绿城的负债比例推到极高水平，使公司不得不接受援助。绿城净债务与EBITDA（未计息、税、折旧及摊销前盈利）之比，从2006年公司上市时的两倍升到2010年的18倍；2011年虽回落至7倍，但这一水平依然堪忧。绿城已承诺要巩固财务状况。九龙仓的增持是一个开端，但也仅此而已。

Cash-rich Hong Kong property developers such as Wharf can probably take their pick of weaker mainland Chinese peers. Greentown’s overleveraged balance sheet is far from being the only one. Local housing sales growth steadied last month but the official curbs on the sector are unlikely to ease. This will cool profits and limit developers’ efforts to reduce leverage.

九龙仓等资金充裕的香港房地产开发商，或许可以在众多财务状况不佳的内地同行当中好好挑上一挑。债台高筑的绝不仅仅是绿城一家。上月内地住房销售实现稳步增长，但中国政府不太可能会放松对房地产业的限制措施。这将抑制开发商的利润空间及其降低负债比例的努力。

School disco success does not involve commitment. Wharf’s convertibles mean it could bid for control after three years, but also offload should performance not improve. Gossip, meantime, will focus on other potential couplings.

在学校舞会上成功“牵手并不意味着任何承诺。九龙仓持有的可转债，既可以让它在三年后选择换取股份、获得控股权，也可以让它选择在绿城业绩没有改善的情形下“斩断情缘。与此同时，人们目光的焦点将转移到其他可能出现的“牵手上。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析