Lex专栏：印度缺电之惑

There is a hole at the heart of India’s economy. And since the lights don’t seem to work, the nation risks falling into it. Power outages on a gargantuan scale have crippled the country this week, disrupting economic activity. The problem is not simply one of lack of investment.

印度经济有一个大洞。而且，由于灯好像不亮了，印度很有可能掉进这个洞里。本周发生的大规模停电事故使印度陷入了瘫痪，经济活动也因此遭到破坏。这不仅仅是一个缺乏投资的问题。

True, India suffers from a power generation capacity shortfall. At peak times, such as the hot summer months, demand for electricity is a fifth higher than supply. Electricity sector reform allowing private investment over the past decade is changing that. New capacity should reach 26,000MW this year, twice the capacity installed last year because of investments by the likes of Tata Powerand Adani Power.

没错，印度确实受到发电能力存在缺口的困扰。在用电高峰期，比如炎热的夏季，电力需求要比电力供给多出20%。过去十年，印度改革了电力行业，允许民间资本进入。如今，这一改革正在显现出成效。今年的新增发电能力将达到2.6万兆瓦，相当于去年新增发电能力的两倍，这得益于塔塔电力(Tata Power)和阿达尼电力(Adani Power)等企业的投资。

The trouble is, the sector’s economics do not add up. Fuel suppliers such as Coal Indiaand gas producers are unable to produce enough to keep the power stations fed. So power generators must resort to expensive imports. That pushes up input prices. Yet electricity tariffs are capped for consumers, meaning that electricity suppliers sell their product at a loss. No wonder India’s state power utilities have debts of Rupees 3tn ($54bn). And they are expected to treble their losses over the next three years.

真正的问题在于，印度电力行业的财务状况堪忧。印度煤炭公司(Coal India)和印度天然气生产商等发电燃料供应商的产能满足不了发电站的需求。于是电力企业只得求助于进口，而进口燃料的成本相当高昂。这就推高了投入价格。另一方面，消费者支付的电价是有上限的，这就意味着，电力企业不得不赔钱卖电。难怪印度国有电力企业的负债额高达3万亿卢比（合540亿美元）。未来三年，它们的亏损额可能还会增加两倍。

The economics are only going to get worse. The import bill looks certain to soar: power generators will rely on imports for 20 per cent and 40 per cent of their coal and gas needs by 2015 respectively, from about 10 per cent today according to Indian brokerage Kotak. New loans to the sector have been used to fund incremental losses instead of for productive purposes. The resulting risk of default by power generators is putting an enormous strain on India’s banks, threatening funding.

这笔经济账只会越来越糟。进口燃料费用飙升看上去已是不可避免：根据印度经纪公司Kotak的数据，到2015年时，电力企业所需的煤炭及天然气供应量将分别有20%和40%来自于进口，目前这两个比例约为10%左右。电力行业获得的新贷款已被用来填补不断扩大的亏损漏洞，而没有用于生产。由此导致的电力企业违约风险给印度的银行造成了巨大的压力，进而可能对电力企业的融资产生影响。

A functioning electricity supply is essential for any economy, especially one with India’s growth pretensions. Without far-reaching reform, Indians will continue to work in the dark.

正常的电力供应对任何经济体来说都至关重要，对印度这个渴望增长的国家来说就更是如此。假若没有大刀阔斧的改革，印度人民就将继续在黑暗中工作。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析