市场押注玉米价格将飞涨

Traders and hedge funds are betting that corn prices will soar to never-before-seen prices of $9 a bushel or more, as the worst US drought in half a century decimates the global corn crop.

由于美国半个世纪以来最严重的旱情导致全球玉米收成大幅减产，交易员和对冲基金纷纷押注玉米价格将飙升至每蒲式耳9美元这一前所未见的水平、甚至更高。

Benchmark front-month corn futures have already risen 50 per cent since early June, touching a record high of $8.28 a bushel last week. But the options market has seen an explosion of bets that prices will rally well beyond current levels.

6月初以来，基准的即月玉米期货价格已上涨50%，上周更是触及每蒲式耳8.28美元的历史高点。但期权市场的数据表明，押注玉米价格还将进一步大幅上涨的头寸已急剧增加。

The number of call options that would give traders the right to buy corn at prices between $9 and $10 in December has risen nearly thirteenfold in the past month, according to data from CME Group, the exchange.

芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的数据显示，过去一个月里，行权价格为9美元至10美元的12月玉米看涨期权的数量增加了近12倍。

Corn has shrivelled across the US Midwest in the past month, with 48 per cent of the crop rated “poor or “very poor at the end of last week, according to a weekly survey from US Department of Agriculture – the worst rating since 1988.

美国农业部(USDA)的周度调查显示，过去一个月美国整个中西部地区的玉米出现枯萎，截至上周末已有48%的玉米作物评级为“差或“非常差，这是1988年以来最糟糕的评级情况。

One commodities banker said trading houses and corn consumers had been “using options extensively.

一位大宗商品银行家表示，贸易商和玉米消费者一直在“广泛使用期权。

He said: “Trade houses have been protecting themselves against non-delivery and consumers are starting to accelerate their hedging programmes.

他说：“贸易商一直用期权保护自己，以免到时无法交货；消费者则开始加快实施他们的对冲计划。

“We have certainly seen some merchants looking to take risk off the table, said Luke Chandler, head of agricultural commodities research at Rabobank, a leading lender to agribusiness. “When they realised just how significant this is, they were looking to unwind hedges.

荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)农业大宗商品研究主管卢克·钱德勒(Luke Chandler)说：“我们显然已经看到，一些商家在寻求避险。当他们意识到这么做有多重要时，将会寻求解除对冲。合作银行是农业综合企业的主要贷款方之一。

Traders expect the USDA, which last month cut its forecast for the crop by 12 per cent to 12.97bn bushels, to reduce its estimates again when it releases a closely watched projection of supply and demand next week.

交易员们预计，美国农业部下周公布一项受到密切关注的供需预测时将再次调低对玉米产量的预期。上月，美国农业部已将玉米产量预期调低了12%，至129.7亿蒲式耳。

Greg Page, chief executive of Cargill, the world’s largest trader of agricultural commodities, said in a CNBC interview that the US crop could now be “perhaps 11bn [bushels] or less.

世界最大的农业大宗商品交易商美国嘉吉公司(Cargill)的首席执行官格雷格·佩吉(Greg Page)在接受CNBC采访时表示，美国的玉米产量现在“可能只有110亿（蒲式耳）甚至更少。

He warned: “I think the problem is serious.

他警告称：“我认为这个问题很严重。

Goldman Sachs last week cut its forecast for the US crop to 10.75bn bushels and predicted prices of $9 a bushel, while some traders say prices could rise even higher.

上周，高盛将其对美国玉米产量的预期调低至107.5亿蒲式耳，并预言玉米价格将达到每蒲式耳9美元。一些交易员表示，玉米价格可能会升得比这还高。

“I think we’re headed to $9, said a senior trader. “$10 or $11 is possible.

一位资深交易员说：“我认为我们正在朝9美元看齐，10美元甚至11美元也是有可能的。

But traders say that the market could see a sharp price reversal, particularly if the US government were to relax regulations that mandate ethanol production from corn. “Just if they announce that there may be a change of legislation, I think will put the market limit down, another trading house executive said.

但交易员们也表示，玉米价格可能出现大幅回落，如果美国政府放松要求用玉米来生产乙醇的规定，这种可能性就更大。一家贸易商的高管表示：“如果他们宣布可能会对法规进行调整，我认为肯定会压低市场价格。

Yesterday corn prices dipped 1.7 per cent to $7.93 a bushel, while soyabeans fell 3.1 per cent to $16.68 a bushel as meteorologists predicted slightly more rain over the next few days.

气象学家预计，未来几天降雨量将略有增加。这导致玉米价格昨日下跌1.7%，至每蒲式耳7.93美元，大豆价格则跌至每蒲式耳16.68美元，跌幅为3.1%。

Nonetheless, leading forecasters including the US National Weather Service expect the Midwest to see hotter and drier conditions than average over the next month.

尽管如此，包括美国国家气象局(US National Weather Service)在内的主要天气预测机构都预计，未来一个月美国中西部的天气将较以往平均水平炎热和干燥。