现金流：投资企业的关键

For any investor there is only one quest that matters: the search for value. But knowing which assets are genuinely cheap is very difficult; this intellectual challenge explains why so few market professionals are consistently successful.

对于任何一名投资者而言，只有一种追求是重要的：对价值的寻找。但了解哪种资产是真正廉价的非常困难；这种智力上的挑战解释了为何持续成功的市场专业人士这么少。

Perhaps the most subjective aspect in analysing any business is the quality of earnings. By this I mean not so much whether the accounts are accurate and conservatively stated, but whether the earnings are repeatable and bankable. Many enterprises have an unsustainable model, only temporary advantages, rising competition and weak fundamentals. They should, all other things being equal, trade for a low multiple.

在对任何一家企业进行分析时，最主观的方面或许是盈利质量。我这样说的意思不是说这些数据是否准确和保守，而是说这些盈利是否可重复以及可靠。很多企业有着不可持续的模式、仅仅暂时性的优势、日益加剧的竞争以及疲弱的基本面因素。假设其他因素都相同，其股价的市盈率应当较低。

By contrast, some companies have high forward visibility of revenue, defendable and attractive margins, a strong franchise with high barriers to entry, proprietary technology or brands, and a sizeable market share. Such rare and enviable situations are usually very expensive to purchase.

相比之下，一些企业拥有很高的预期收入能见度、具有防御能力且颇具吸引力的利润率、准入门槛很高的强大业务、专有技术或品牌以及大规模市场份额。这些罕见而令人羡慕的股票通常价格非常昂贵。

As savvy entrepreneurs know, there is a world of difference between accounting profits and cash profits. Cash flow matters much more than almost anything in a company. This is the money left over every year after tax, interest, capital expenditure and all outgoings have been settled – the retained earnings.

正如精明的企业家所了解的那样，账面利润和现金利润之间有着天壤之别。在一家企业，现金流的重要性超过其它几乎一切。它是除去税收、利息、资本支出以及在各项耗费结清之后每年剩下的资金，即留存利润。

The equity holders of a company enjoy the residual profits after all other claims, such as interest and dividends, are paid. Over time, this should lead to growth in net worth.

在支付利息和股息等其他所有财务要求之后，一家公司的股权持有者享有剩余利润。随着时间的流逝，这应会带来净值的增长。

For many years investors have obsessed about growth and neglected to consider underlying cash generation. Yet it is possible to make solid and safe returns by owning mundane companies that barely increase their revenue or bottom line each year, but are effective at converting profits into cash. These types of businesses can often be bought on modest multiples of perhaps four or five times.

多年来，投资者一直执迷于增长，而忽视了根本的现金创造。然而，如果一家平平淡淡的企业，每年的收入或利润几乎都不见增长，但却有效地将利润转化为现金，拥有这种企业是有可能创造稳健且安全的回报的。这类企业股票的市盈率往往仅为4、5倍。

Another advantage of cash generators is that they can be partially acquired using debt, since a bank will feel secure enough to lend against them. In an era of low interest rates and generally weak returns, companies that can deliver net cash every year should attract more buyers. By contrast, growth companies ought to be regarded with greater suspicion in a stagnant economy. Moreover, growth usually takes working capital – meaning a reduced cash surplus for distribution.

现金创造者的另一个优势在于，可以在一定程度上举债收购它们，因为银行对于以它们为抵押放贷相当放心。在低利率和回报率普遍较低的时期，能够每年产生净现金的企业应会吸引更多买家。相比之下，在经济停滞不前时，增长型企业应让人们怀有更多的疑虑。另外，增长通常要占用营运资金，这意味着用于分配的现金盈余将减少。

An example of how markets despise a business they label as ex-growth is Home Retail Group. This is the ￡5.5bn turnover retailer that owns Argos and Homebase among other high street brands. It has net cash and sits on an ebitda to enterprise value ratio of just 2.5 times – in a year when profits are depressed. Clearly, institutions see it as mature and probably in decline.

Home Retail Group是一个表明市场鄙视一家被列为增长乏力的企业的例子。这家零售商的营业额为55亿英镑，拥有Argos、Homebase以及其他英国零售品牌。该公司拥有净现金，在利润下滑的这一年，企业价值(EV)与扣除利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利(ebitda)的比率仅为2.5倍。显然，投资机构视其为一家成熟且很可能在走下坡路的企业。

Yet for sexy retail stories, private equity will pay as much as eight or even 10 times. This huge pricing discrepancy seems irrational and hard to justify. So many investors are seduced by exciting projections and bored by reliability and history.

然而，对于令人瞩目的零售企业，私人股本愿意付出高达8倍甚至10倍的EV/ebitda比率。这一巨大价格差距似乎是不理性的，很难做出合理解释。如此之多的投资者受到令人兴奋的预测的引诱，同时对可靠性和历史感到厌倦。

Private equity pros added back depreciation and used leverage to enable them to buy unloved companies from quoted investors. But now the ebitda multiples paid by private equity shops are sometimes higher than the price/earnings multiples at which sensible, publicly listed companies trade. Has all the dry powder commanded by the private equity shops distorted their judgment? Why would listed companies be cheaper than private ones?

私人股本专业人士把折旧加回来，并利用杠杆，从股市投资者手中收购不受人喜欢的公司。但如今，私人股本公司支付的ebitda倍数有时高于合理公开上市公司的市盈率(PE)。私人股本公司手上的大量资金是否扭曲了它们的判断？上市公司有什么理由比私有公司更廉价？

Perhaps it is the sheer weight of money chasing those scarce companies that appears to deliver growth. Or perhaps it is the habit of buying and selling businesses between private equity firms – possibly creating a closed universe with no sense check on value.

或许这是因为有大量资金在追捧那些貌似会带来增长的罕见公司。或许这是因为私人股本公司之间买卖业务的习惯，这可能会创造一个封闭的空间，缺乏对价值的核查。

Most of us are guilty of getting overexcited at new prospects, forgetting all the possible pitfalls contained in every opportunity.

我们多数人都可能对新的前景过于兴奋，而忘记了每个机会中隐藏的所有可能的陷阱。

And due diligence will only reveal so much – I have spent hundreds of thousands of pounds on advisers, only to discover after the event that they missed critical issues. And I was recently reminded that when we backed Topps Tiles, one of our better bets, we commissioned no financial analysis.

尽职调查透露的信息是有限的——我曾花费数十万英镑聘用顾问，结果却发现他们遗漏了关键的问题。我最近得到提醒，当我们支持Topps Tiles时（这是我们比较出色的投资之一），我们没有委托进行财务分析。

Perhaps the only rules when buying companies are to do your own homework, and trust history and cash rather more than spreadsheets showing a buoyant future. Ultimately, financial models are less important than common sense.

或许，在收购企业时，唯一的法则是做自己的功课，相信历史和现金，而非展示美好未来的电子表格。最终，财务模型的重要性比不上常识。