中国二季度经济增速跌至三年来最低点

China's economic growth decelerated to its slowest pace since the global financial crisis, dampening hopes that the world's second largest economy will provide much support for the faltering global outlook and prompting expectations that Beijing will make fresh moves to stimulate growth.

中国经济增长速度放缓至全球金融危机爆发以来的最低水平。此前外界希望中国能为并不确定的全球经济前景提供大量支持的期待因此落空。市场因而预计，中国政府将出台一系列新的举措来刺激经济增长。

China's gross domestic product slowed to 7.6% year-over-year in the second quarter, down from 8.1% in the first quarter and its lowest level since the beginning of 2010, dragged down by a combination of Europe-blighted exports, stagnant real estate investment, and the inability-in the short term-for domestic consumption to take up all of the slack.

中国二季度国内生产总值(GDP)的同比增速放缓至7.6%，低于一季度8.1%的水平，是自2010年初以来经济增长最慢的一个季度。拖累中国经济增长的三大因素是：对欧洲出口低迷；房地产投资停滞；短期内国内消费还无法挑起凭一己之力推动中国经济增长的重担。

'This should be the bottom for the year,' said Lu Ting, an analyst for Bank of America. 'GDP growth should pick up in the third quarter because of the impact of policy measures taken since May.'

美国银行(Bank of America)的分析师陆挺说，今年中国经济应该已经见底，受5月以来推出的政策措施影响，三季度GDP增速应该会加快。

The Australian dollar was up modestly after the data were released, while Shanghai's benchmark stock index was up 0.1% and Hong Kong was up 0.3%, as investors reacted to growth in line with expectations.

由于此次中国发布的经济数据符合投资者此前预期，数据发布后澳元兑美元小幅上升。沪市基准股指涨0.1%，而恒指则涨0.3%。

China's data come hard on the heels of a raft of negative numbers from the U.S. and Europe. In the U.S., the June jobs report saw the unemployment rate staying high at 8.2%. In Europe, the German Ifo business-climate survey fell to its lowest level in more than two years in June.

就在中国发布经济数据之前，美国和欧洲发布了一连串负面数据。美国6月份就业报告显示，失业率停留在8.2%的高位。而在欧洲，德国Ifo商业景气指数(Ifo business-climate survey)6月份跌至两年多来的最低点。

Fresh evidence of weakness in the rest of the world is bad news for China, whose factories are already suffering from a contraction in the European economy-till 2012 their biggest export partner.

显示世界其它地区经济处于疲弱状态的新证据对中国来说是个坏消息。中国工厂已经在承受欧洲经济萎缩带来的负面影响。在今年之前，欧洲一直是中国最大的出口市常

Zhang Qikang, a senior manager at ceramics-maker Foshan Monalisa Industry Co. in the export-dependent southern Chinese city of Foshan, said while his company is growing, 'many ceramics companies have laid off workers since last year.' He added: 'All businesses are trying hard to survive.'

广东蒙娜丽莎陶瓷有限公司是一家位于出口重镇佛山的陶瓷生产企业，该公司高级经理张旗康说，虽然公司的业务仍在增长，但去年以来很多陶瓷生产企业都在裁员。他说，所有企业都在努力求生。

Yu Bin, a research director at the Development Research Center, a Chinese government think tank, said he expects the Chinese economy to pick up speed in the second half of the year and grow at around 8% for the entire year. But for that to occur, China may have to further stimulate its economy, some analysts argue.

中国政府智库国务院发展研究中心宏观经济研究部部长余斌说，他预计中国经济在下半年将加快增长速度，全年经济增速将达到8%左右。但一些分析师认为，想要实现这一目标，中国可能要进一步刺激经济增长。

The central bank has already cut interest rates twice since the beginning of June. Taken together with more flexibility for banks to make loans below the benchmark interest rate, major borrowers could see a 1.7 percentage point cut in their cost of credit.

自6月初以来中国央行已经两次降息，此外加上央行允许商业银行突破基准贷款利率下限进行放贷，主要借款人的信贷成本因此得以降低了1.7个百分点。

That seems to be producing some results. New bank loans rose markedly in June, up to 919 billion yuan ($144 billion) from 793 billion yuan in May. But a falling share of medium- and long-term loans to business suggested investment demand remains weak. Slower growth in industrial output in June─down to 9.5% on-year from 9.6% in May─was a reminder that the stimulus will take time to feed through into stronger growth.

这似乎取得了一定成效。6月份银行新增贷款从5月份的7,930亿元大幅增至9,190亿元（合1,440亿美元）。但企业中长期贷款比例下降，说明投资需求仍旧疲软。6月份工业增加值同比增长9.5%，较5月份的9.6%有所放缓，这一点提醒我们，经济刺激需要经过一段时间才能转化为更强劲的经济增长。

Chen Dongqi, a vice president at the Chinese government's Academy of Macroeconomic Research, says falling inflation means more room for rate cuts. 'Inflation should stay below 2% in the second half. That means there's room for at least two more rate cuts,' he said.

国家发改委宏观经济研究院副院长陈东琪说，通胀回落意味着降息空间更大。他说，下半年通胀率应该会维持在2%以下，这意味着至少有再降息两次的空间。

A downturn in the real-estate market is a key factor in China's slowing growth. Beijing's two-year battle to deflate the national housing bubble has resulted in weaker sales and dented incentives for developers to break ground on new projects. Real estate accounts directly for 12% of China's GDP, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund, and also drives demand for construction materials, furniture, and appliances.

房地产市场低迷是中国经济增长放缓的一个重要原因。北京两年来压缩楼市泡沫的努力导致销售减弱，打击了开发商建设新楼盘的热情。据国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)估计，房地产直接占中国GDP的12%，同时还拉动了建材、家具和家电的需求。

'Cement sales are dismal,' said a sales manager at Huaxin Cement Co., who identified himself as Mr. Gao. 'Both price and sales volume are going down, partly due to excess capacity and partly due to property tightening.' Huaxin is part of cement giant Holcim Ltd. of Switzerland.

华新水泥股份有限公司(Huaxin Cement Co.)一位自称姓高的销售经理说，水泥销售情况惨淡，不管是价格还是销量都在下降，部分原因是产能过剩，还有部分原因是房地产调控措施。华新水泥是瑞士水泥巨头豪瑞(Holcim Ltd.)的子公司。

Stabilization in the property sector could be a key factor underpinning China's growth in the second half. Despite continued tough rhetoric from the government there are signs that tight controls on sales─intended to bring prices under control─have been quietly relaxed. Sales volumes have been creeping up since February and prices registered an increase in June, the first after nine months straight of decline, according to property agency Soufun.

房地产行业的企稳，可能会成为下半年支撑中国经济增长的关键因素。虽然政府不断发表强硬言论，但有迹象表明严格的限购措施（意在控制价格）已经悄然放松。房地产中介搜房网的数据显示，2月份以来成交量一直在缓慢上升，6月份房价在连跌九个月后出现上涨。

Earlier this week, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said that the government would also focus heavily on investment. In the spring, Beijing approved a host of steel and energy projects and more such approvals may be on the way as a way to lift the economy. Government economists have said Beijing will calibrate its response to the depth of the European slowdown.

本周早些时候，国务院总理温家宝表示，政府当前的主要任务是促进投资的合理增长。北京在春季批准了一系列钢铁和能源项目，接下来可能还会批准更多类似项目以提振经济。官方经济学家曾表示北京将根据欧洲经济放缓的程度来调整自己的应对行动。

Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Development Co., a large Chinese producer of construction equipment, is cautiously optimistic about the impact of the shift to a stimulus policy. 'The effects are likely to show up in the next two to three months, with a limited rebound in market demand' said a spokesman in a statement.

中国大型建筑设备生产企业中联重科(Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science & Technology Development Co.)对政府转而采取刺激政策产生的影响持谨慎乐观态度。其发言人发表声明说，接下来两三个月市场需求可能会有限反弹，从而体现出政策调整的效果。