美股或迎来2010年以来盈利最差财季

The slowdown in the global economy and anaemic US recovery is expected to result in one of the worst US quarterly earnings seasons since late 2010.

全球经济增长放缓、加上美国经济复苏乏力，预计将催生2010年末以来美国最差的一个财报季。

Analysts expect earnings for the period ended September to decline, the first negative result after 11 consecutive quarters of gains.

分析师预计，在截至9月底的这个季度里，美国企业的利润会有所下滑。此前，该指标已连续上升11个季度。

Energy and materials companies are tipped to lead the downturn with the financial sector set to be one of the few bright spots.

能源和原料行业很可能会是利润下滑最厉害的两个行业，而金融行业可能是为数不多的亮点之一。

Wall Street analysts expect third-quarter earnings per share for S and P 500 companies will fall 2.7 per cent versus the same quarter a year ago, according to FactSet. Just three months ago analysts had forecast growth of 1.9 per cent.

FactSet数据显示，华尔街分析师普遍预计，标准普尔500指数成分股企业第三季度每股收益将同比下降2.7%。而就在3个月前，分析师们还曾预期该指标将上升1.9%。

In the past three months, warnings from large companies about reduced full-year profits due to global economic weakness fuelled this pessimistic view.

过去3个月里，许多大型企业预警称，由于全球经济疲软，它们的全年利润可能出现下滑。这更助长了市场的悲观情绪。

FedEx and UPS, often seen as barometers for world economic health, cut their full-year guidance during their last earnings releases, citing the slowdown in global trade.

联邦快递(FedEx)和联合包裹(UPS)常被视为世界经济的晴雨表。这两家公司在上次发布的财报中调低了各自的全年盈利预期，称原因是全球贸易增长放缓。

In August, talking to the Financial Times, the chief executive of Caterpillar, bellwether of the industrial economy, warned of the greater uncertainty about global growth, predicting it could take another five years before Europe’s economy begins to grow.

今年8月，工业界领头羊卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)的首席执行官在接受英国《金融时报》采访时，就全球增长前景不确定性增大发出了警告，并预言欧洲经济可能还需要5年时间才会开始恢复增长。

Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, said: “We expect corporate profits will be negative and revenues soft, as the global slowdown and below average economic growth in the US has affected companies.

LPL Financial首席市场战略师杰夫·克莱因托普(Jeff Kleintop)说：“我们预计，全球经济放缓、再加上美国经济增长率低于全球平均水平，已对企业造成影响，因此企业利润将下滑，企业收入将表现平淡。

The earnings season starts with Alcoa reporting on Tuesday, followed by JPMorgan and Wells Fargo on Friday.

美国铝业(Alcoa)将于周二发布季报，开启此轮季报发布潮。随后，摩根大通(JPMorgan)和富国银行(Wells Fargo)将在周五发布季报。

However, downbeat earnings expectations are yet to weigh on the broad market with the S and P 500 up more than 16 per cent so far this year. Stock prices are being supported by the Federal Reserve buying large amounts of bonds, which lowers interest rates and boosts the attractiveness of riskier assets such as equities.

然而，悲观的企业利润预期还未对整个市场造成拖累，标准普尔500指数今年迄今已累计上涨逾16%。美联储(Fed)大量购买债券，在压低利率的同时提高了风险较高资产（比如股票）的吸引力，对股价形成了支撑。

“If we see that the markets do not correct even after earnings disappoint and guidance gets worse, then it will be clear that fundamentals have given way to the Fed, said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial.

保德信金融集团(Prudential Financial)市场战略师昆西·克罗斯比(Quincy Krosby)表示：“如果盈利情况不理想、企业进一步调低利润预期，而市场仍不出现调整，那么很显然，基本面因素已被美联储控制。

Equity investors are also looking beyond the most recent quarter toward the final quarter of the year given the expectation that profits will rebound. S and P 500 companies are on course for record cash profits for 2012.

尽管最近这一季度企业盈利情况不佳，但股票投资者仍期望盈利会出现反弹，因此仍对今年最后一季度的股市表现抱以期待。2012年，标准普尔500指数成分股企业有望实现创纪录的现金利润。

That outlook may suffer from downward revisions should companies express caution about their future earnings in their results in the coming weeks.

如果接下来几周企业在季报中就未来的盈利发出预警，投资者可能将被迫调低期望值。

“Even with lowered expectations, earnings could disappoint and place stocks under pressure, said Michael Kastner, principal at Halyard Asset Management. “It’s worrying to see the warnings from Fed Ex and other weakness from the transport sector that suggests this will not be a good quarter.

“即便投资者已经调低了期望值，但企业盈利情况也可能还是会令他们股市失望,并对股价构成压力，Halyard资产管理公司(Halyard Asset Management)负责人迈克尔·卡斯特纳(Michael Kastner)说。“联邦快递发出的警告以及运输业其他疲弱迹象显示，第三季度形势不妙。这种情况令人担忧。