金砖国家筹建开发银行

A case of life imitating art or a seminal shift in global power? The idea of a Brics development bank may be both. Few can have expected the Bric acronym – initially put forward in 2001 as an investment -concept – to have inspired real-world alliances.

这是生活模仿艺术，还是全球实力大转移的一个例证？这两种说法对于“设立金砖国家(Brics)开发银行都适用。很少有人能够预料到，Bric这个首字母缩写词能推动金砖国家建立真正的同盟关系。Bric在2001年问世时不过是一种投资理念而已。

But Brazil, Russia, India and China, recently joined by South Africa, are increasingly adding diplomatic ambitions to their economic assertiveness.

但巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国（不久前又增加了南非）除上在经济上表现出自信之外，也日益展现出外交雄心。

Once an outlandish possibility, the proposed Brics development bank was first discussed at a meeting of the five countries in March.

虽然设立金砖国家开发银行的设想一度显得颇为怪异，但金砖五国在今年3月的一次会议上第一次讨论了这个设想。

If it becomes a reality, the institution would be the first major multilateral lender to emerge since the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in 1991.

如果这一设想变为现实，金砖国家开发银行将成为1991年欧洲复兴开发银行(EBRD)成立以来设立的第一家重要多边贷款机构。

While the EBRD symbolised the post-Cold War order, the Brics bank could showcase the 21st century rise of emerging states.

欧洲复兴开发银行象征着冷战后的秩序，而金砖国家开发银行可能昭示着新兴国家在21世纪的崛起。

Amrita Narlikar, director of Cambridge university’s Centre for Rising Powers says: “This could be the first step towards more proactive agenda-setting by the Brics.

剑桥大学(Cambridge)新兴国家研究中心主任阿姆瑞塔·纳利卡(Amrita Narlikar)表示：“这可能意味着金砖国家朝着更积极地设定议程迈出了第一步。

“It’s one of the few instances we have when they have gone beyond telling us what they do not want, and offered an idea of how they could be responsible players contributing to the system.

“有些时候，金砖国家在表明它们不想要什么之后，还提出了它们作为负责的参与者能为当前体系做哪些贡献的想法，设立金砖国家开发银行就是一例。

Supporters of the bank have suggested various financing niches that it could fill. Those could include green technologies to counter climate change, as proposed by leading economists Nicholas Stern and Joseph Stiglitz.

赞成设立金砖国家开发银行的人士提出了这家机构可提供资金支持的多个不同领域，按照名经济学家尼古拉斯·斯特恩(Nicholas Stern)和约瑟夫·斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)的建议，其中可包括绿色技术，以应对气候变化。

Conversely, the bank could finance projects – such as biofuels, large dams and nuclear power plants – that do not meet the World Bank’s environmental and social standards.

另一方面，金砖国家开发银行可以资助一些达不到世界银行环保和社会标准的项目，比如生物燃料、大型水坝与核电厂等项目。

Nonetheless, reaction to the proposal has been mixed. Sceptics have pointed out the differing interests of China and India.

然而，人们对创立该银行的提议褒贬不一。持怀疑态度的人指出，中国和印度之间存在利益冲突。

Jagannath Panda of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, a New Delhi think-tank says: “India sees the Brics as an economic proposition, while the Chinese see it as more political.

新德里智库国防研究与分析研究所(IDSA)的贾甘纳特·潘达(Jagannath Panda)表示：“印度把金砖国家视为一项经济主张，中国则更多地把它看作一项政治主张。

“The Chinese are supporting heavily that the bank should be in South Africa, so they will have clout on that continent. India would still like to have the headquarters in India.

“中国人强烈支持把金砖国家开发银行的总部设在南非，这样一来，他们将在非洲大陆获得影响力。印度则希望把该行总部设在本国。

Wherever they are located, the bank’s offices are unlikely to rival the World Bank’s imposing presence in Washington.

但不管总部设在哪个国家，金砖国家开发银行的办公大楼都不大可能像位于华盛顿的世界银行(World Bank)总部那样引人瞩目。

Brazilian officials suggest the Brics bank should have a lean structure, like the Andean Development Corporation (CAF).

巴西官员建议，金砖国家开发银行应当采纳像安第斯开发公司(Andean Development Corporation)一样简洁的结构。

Other issues yet to be resolved include whether the bank would lend outside of the Brics countries – Brazil’s foreign minister has suggested it focus on Africa – and whether it would lend to companies as well as governments.

其他有待解决的问题包括，该行是否要贷款给金砖国家之外的国家（巴西外长建议集中向非洲地区提供贷款）；除了贷款给政府，是否也贷款给企业。

Domenico Lombardi, a former board member of the World Bank Group, and now a senior fellow of the Brookings Institution, says: “The question is: do these Brics countries have enough in common to make the bank instrumental to their objectives?

前世界银行集团(World Bank Group)董事、布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)高级研究员多梅尼科·隆巴尔迪(Domenico Lombardi)表示：“问题在于，这几个金砖国家是还有足够多的共同点，来使这家银行对他们实现目标起到帮助？

“They all have a huge need for infrastructure [investment] and share a dissatisfaction with the lending policies of the World Bank, so there’s a base on which they could build.

“这几个国家都非常需要基础设施（投资），也都不满意世界银行的贷款政策，所以就有可能在这个基础上进行合作。

There are some signs of modest progress. At preparatory meetings in Rio de Janeiro in August, the five countries agreed that the bank should raise money from the market, instead of acting merely as a fund.

目前已有迹象表明此事取得了一定的进展。今年8月份在里约热内卢举行的筹备会上，金砖五国一致同意，金砖国家开发银行应当从市场上筹集资金，不能单纯以基金的模式来运作。

Indeed, investors’ willingness to lend to emerging markets may have emboldened the countries in the first place.

实际上，投资者愿意借钱给新兴市场，可能从一开始就使金砖五国信心满怀。

“Since the financial crisis, it’s become clear that you don’t need to have a triple-A credit rating to raise money. That is the trigger for the bank, says Mr Lombardi.

隆巴尔迪表示：“自从金融危机爆发以来，有一点很明显，你不必非得拥有AAA级信用评级才能筹到资金。这让金砖国家产生了设立开发银行的想法。

A ballpark proposal is that each country would contribute $10bn in initial capital and guarantees.

一项可能的提议是，每个国家将出资100亿美元，作为初始资本和保证金。

Equalising contributions would give the institution an equal voting structure, in sharp contrast to the World Bank. Yet it may also limit the eventual size of the bank – given that South Africa’s pockets are not as deep as China’s.

各国出资比例相等，因而将拥有同等投票权，这一结构跟世界银行形成了鲜明的对比。但这样的安排也可能限制金砖国家开发银行的最终规模，毕竟南非的财力不像中国那样雄厚。

Negotiations between the Brics, which are usually conducted in English, are likely to continue on the fringes of the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Toyko in October. Final feasibility studies are due to be presented at the Brics summit next year. “It’s going to be at least two years before the bank is established, says Panda.

今年10月，国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行将在东京召开年会。金砖五国可能利用会议的间隙，继续进行协商成立开发银行事宜（协商中通常使用英语）。最终的可行性研究结果将提交至明年金砖国家首脑峰会。潘达表示：“起码还要过两年时间，金砖国家开发银行才可能真正建立起来。

In the meantime, it remains to be seen what impact the embryonic development bank has on the Brics’ commitment to existing international institutions.

目前仍不清楚的是，对于金砖国家在现有国际机构中所需承担的义务，这个尚在胎中的开发银行将会有什么影响。

The five countries are significant borrowers from the World Bank, with new loans of over $7bn approved in 2011 alone. They are also growing contributors to the IMF. But all have expressed frustration at their marginal role in those bodies’ decision-making.

金砖五国从世界银行获得的贷款额很可观，仅2011年批准的新贷款就超过70亿美元。这几个国家对国际货币基金组织的出资额也在不断增加。但由于在世界银行和国际货币基金组织决策过程中，它们扮演的角色都是微不足道的，这令它们失望。

In that context, starting a new development bank provides a bargaining chip. “By entertaining the idea of a Brics bank, they have better negotiating power over voting rights in the IMF and World Bank, as they can always threaten to walk away, says Mr Lombardi.

在这种情况下，创立一家新的开发银行将为金砖五国增加一项谈判筹码。隆巴尔迪表示：“由于打算自己成立一家开发银行，金砖五国就国际货币基金组织和世界银行投票权问题进行谈判时就会更有底气，因为它们随时都可以威胁退出这两家机构。