中国太阳能电池板行业深陷危机

A senior Chinese energy official said China’s solar panel industry was like “a patient on life support that would have to undergo radical consolidation and cuts to emerge from the “crisis of overcapacity.

一位中国高级能源官员表示，中国的太阳能电池板行业就像“一位靠着生命支持系统维生的病人，只有经过激烈整合和降低产能，才能走出产能过剩的“危机。

The assessment underscores how China, the world’s biggest producer of solar panels, has been hit by oversupply as global demand growth has slowed and panel prices have fallen by 30 per cent over the past year.

这一评估凸显出，由于过去一年全球需求放缓，电池板价格下跌了30%，供给过剩对世界最大的太阳能电池板生产国中国产生了多么严重的冲击。

Solar companies worldwide have been closing their doors as they lose out on the price wars with Chinese companies which are also struggling to stay afloat.

全球的太阳能企业在价格战中不敌中国企业，纷纷关门。而中国的太阳能企业也在艰难求生。

Li Junfeng, deputy director of the energy research institute of China’s national development and reform commission that steers China’s renewable energy policy, said at least half of global solar panel manufacturing capacity will have to shut down through “powerful market competition and cruel elimination.

中国国家发改委能源研究所副所长李俊峰表示，全球太阳能电池板产能中至少有一半将在“强大的市场竞争和残酷的淘汰中破产。该所主导着中国的可再生能源政策。

“Without a huge capacity phase-out there is no way to solve this crisis, he said in Beijing, referring to cuts inside and outside of China.

他在北京表示：“如果不能逐步大规模淘汰产能，这场危机就无法解决。言下所指是削减中国国内外的产能。

While Chinese solar-panel makers have been slapped by antidumping tariffs and countervailing duties in the US, and similar tariffs are under investigation in the EU, Mr Li said the trade tariffs were just the “straw that broke the camel’s back. According to him the real culprit was the rapid, credit-fuelled expansion in Chinese solar capacity that has contributed to today’s global production capacity of about 100GW, compared with global demand of 30-50GW.

虽然中国太阳能电池板生产商在美国被征收反倾销税和反补贴税，欧盟也在调查类似关税，但李俊峰表示，贸易关税只是“压倒骆驼的最后一根稻草。他认为，真正的罪魁祸首是中国太阳能产能在信贷驱动下快速扩张，导致目前全球产能约为100吉瓦（GW），而全球的需求仅为30-50吉瓦。

As that oversupply has been met with slowing global demand growth, China’s big solar groups such as Suntech, Trinaand Yinglihave cut production and struggled to maintain profitability. Suntech, the world’s biggest producer of solar panels, recently received a delisting warning from Nasdaq and in late September Suntech secured debt support from the local government of Wuxi, where it is based. LDK, a large Chinese solar company specialising in polysilicon, also received a bailout of up to $80m from its home town of Xinyu in July this year.

由于供给过剩，全球需求增长放缓，尚德(Suntech)、天合(Trina)和英利(Yingli)等中国大型太阳能企业已经削减生产，艰难地维持利润率。全球最大的太阳能电池板生产商尚德最近收到纳斯达克(Nasdaq)的退市警告，9月末尚德从总部所在地的无锡地方政府获得了债务支持。今年7月，专门生产多晶硅的中国大型太阳能企业赛维LDK，从其总部所在地新余市获得8000万美元救助。

Mr Li, one of China’s most influential renewable energy policy makers, said central government support for China’s ailing solar panel companies would not be forthcoming and the enterprises would need to “take responsibility for their own problems.

李俊峰是中国最有影响力的可再生能源政策制定者。他表示，接下来中国中央政府不会对中国境况不佳的太阳能企业给予支持，企业只能“为它们自身的问题负责。

He described the recent solar bailouts from local governments as “suicidal because it will just intensify the problem of overcapacity. “If other local governments follow the policies in Xinyu and Wuxi [the cities that gave bailouts], it is like giving solar firms poison to quench their thirst. It will only quicken their death, Mr Li said. Most Chinese solar companies are privately owned, with local governments often holding a minority stake in local businesses.

他认为，地方政府最近救助太阳能产业的举措是在“自杀，因为这只会加剧产能过剩问题。李俊峰表示：“如果其他地方政府效仿（提供救助的）新余和无锡的政策，无疑于让太阳能企业饮鸩止渴。只会加速它们死亡。中国多数太阳能企业是私营企业，地方政府经常在地方企业中持有少数股份。

China’s solar sector would need at least one to two years to complete its natural consolidation cycle, he said, although it could be longer because of the lack of clarity over Chinese bankruptcy laws. “It will be a slow, painful process, Mr Li said, comparing it with the speedier EU bankruptcy system. “It is not easy for Chinese companies to do well. But it is even harder for them to die.

李俊峰表示，中国太阳能行业将至少需要1-2年时间来完成自然整合周期，但由于中国的破产法不够清晰，实际上所需时间更长。他把中国的程序与更快速的欧盟破产体系进行对比，指出：“这是一个缓慢而痛苦的过程。中国企业做出成绩不容易，但是破产更难。