英国不必急着与欧盟告别

The EU is in an era of transformation. Meanwhile, the UK – or perhaps just England – is moving towards exit. The eurozone is being forced towards “more Europe, while the UK wants less Europe. The sensible option for the UK is to wait to see what happens. But its politicians may be unwilling, or not allowed, to be patient. Its partners are then likely to lose patience, too. Divorce may seem the better outcome, for both.

欧盟(EU)进入转型时代，英国（或许仅仅是英格兰）却在脱离欧盟。欧元区被迫朝着“更加欧洲化的方向前进，英国却希望“减少欧洲化。对英国来说，明智的选择应当是静观其变，但英国的政客可能缺乏耐心等待的意愿或机会。其伙伴国也有可能失去耐心。分道扬镳似乎成了两全其美的选择。

The UK has never been an enthusiastic member. When Harold Macmillan sought to join what became the EU, half a century ago, he did so because he saw no alternative: he thought that if the UK could not prevent the integration of the continent, it had to join it. Charles de Gaulle vetoed the request in 1963. Many continental Europeans must now agree with the French leader that the UK is unable to be a committed member of the club.

英国对欧盟从来就缺乏热情。五十年前，哈罗德·麦克米伦(Harold Macmillan)之所以寻求加入欧盟的前身机构，是因为他认为别无选择：如果英国不能阻止欧洲大陆的一体化，那它就必须加入其中。夏尔·戴高乐(Charles de Gaulle)在1963年否决了这一请求。想必现在有很多欧洲大陆人赞同这位法国领袖的看法：英国无法成为“欧洲俱乐部的忠实一员。

Subsequently, in 1973, the UK joined what its people were told would be a European Economic Community. But it was always more than that. Over time, continental aspirations have become clearer and the discomfort of English Conservatives – once the more pro-European of the two big parties – greater. The UK stayed out of the currency union partly because of widely shared scepticism about the economics, but still more because of hostility to the politics. Sceptics pointed to these implications. They have been proved right on both points. And they know it.

之后的1973年，英国人得知自己的国家加入了欧洲经济共同体(European Economic Community)。但事情远没有那么简单。时间一久，欧洲大陆的雄心越来越明显，而曾经在两大党中更亲欧洲的英国保守党也感到越来越不快。英国不加入货币联盟，部分是因为对加入其中的经济意义感到怀疑，但更大的原因是反感政治层面上的意义。怀疑人士指出了这两方面可能受到的影响，事实证明他们的看法是正确的。他们也明白这一点。

Now comes the transformational moment. If the eurozone is to survive, it will have to jump into a deeper economic and political union. Everybody now knows that the initial design failed. In a currency union, capital flows, current account imbalances, financial fragility, divergent competitiveness and fiscal policy are all matters of profound common interest. Moreover, stricter rules are not enough. Members also have to offer one another insurance. Otherwise, doubts about the durabilityof the union will, of themselves, drive it towards disintegration. This is why the European Central Bank has found itself forced towards its new “outright monetary purchases – purchase of government bonds of the member countries under pressure.

现在转型的时刻到了。如果欧元区要存活下去，就必须缔造更深层次的经济政治联盟。如今所有人都知道，关于欧元区的最初设想已告失败。在一个货币联盟内，资本流动、经常账户失衡、金融脆弱、竞争力各异和财政政策都是攸关共同利益的问题。而且，单单制定更严格的规则是不够的。成员国彼此间也应提供保障。否则，光是对联盟存续能力的怀疑就足以将联盟拖入解体。正是出于这个原因，欧洲央行才不得已推出了新的“直接货币购买(outright monetary purchases)计划，即购买有困难的成员国的政府债券。

The plan now emerging involves a “banking union, which means common standards and processes for supervision and resolution, alongside at least a limited “fiscal union, which means both tighter rules and greater support in a crisis. Such big shifts in decision-making from the member countries to the eurozone as a whole will demand, in time, far greater political integration. What form this will take is unclear. But the direction of change cannot be.

正在浮出水面的计划包括组建一个“银行业联盟，以及至少要有一个有限的“财政联盟，前者代表着对监管和清盘实施统一的标准和程序，后者意味着在危机中既要出台更严厉的规则，也要加大支持力度。决策从成员国转移到欧元区层面的这种重大转变，迟早将对更大程度的政治一体化提出要求。这样的变化将以何种方式进行尚不清楚，但变化的方向必须明确。

One possible outcome is that the eurozone solves its crisis by accepting deeper economic and political integration. The opposite possible outcome is that it fails to do so, whereupon it breaks up, wholly or in part. Nobody knows which possibility will materialise and in what way. We can all guess about the likelihood of each alternative. All we know is that neither survival nor disintegration is certain.

一种可能的结果是，欧元区通过推进经济与政治一体化解决了自身危机。另一种截然相反的可能结果是，欧元区未能解决危机，全面或者部分解体。没有人知道最终会出现哪一种结果，以何种方式出现。对于每一种结果发生的概率，我们可以尽情猜测。我们所知道的是，无论存活还是解体，一切都未成为定局。

Assume, for example, that a more integrated eurozone emerges, with, notably, a banking union under the supervisory control of the ECB. That would have big implications for the UK. The worst, from the UK perspective, is that financial regulations would be agreed within the eurozone and then imposed on the rest of the EU. The UK might find itself permanently outvoted. The eurozone would surely seek to ensure that the UK cannot subvert its regulations. Moreover, such common eurozone positions might end up going far beyond financial regulation as the eurozone’s integration deepens.

例如，假设欧元区变得更加一体化，而且还成立了在欧洲央行(ECB)监管控制下的银行业联盟。这将对英国产生重大影响。从英国角度来看，最坏的情况是欧元区内部将协商制定金融法规，并在欧盟其他国家推行。在投票方面，英国可能将从此处于劣势。毫无疑问，欧元区将竭力阻止英国推翻它制定的法规。而且，随着欧元区一体化加深，欧元区的“统一战线或将远超金融法规层面。

If this were to happen, the UK might consider a number of radical options. True, it might stay inside, as it is. It might also seek to move into the European Economic Area. This would deprive it of a vote in decisions on the single market but it might believe that, by then, its vote would count for nothing, anyway. If this could be agreed – a big if, since the existing members are small countries such as Iceland, Norway and Lichtenstein – this would spare the UK the costs of membership of the common agricultural policy and put it outside the common fisheries policy, both of which are potentially highly popular. However, the UK would continue to contribute to costs associated with the single market. If even this were too onerous, it might rejoin the European Free Trade Area, with Switzerland, thereby putting it outside the single market. Beyond that, it could leave everything and stand on its rights in the World Trade Organisation. Choosing among these alternatives and then negotiating over them with the members would be quite a business.

如果发生这种情况的话，英国可能将考虑采取激进措施。的确，它或许会维持现状，留在欧盟。它也可能寻求加入欧洲经济区(European Economic Area)。这样会使英国失去对单一市场的决策投票权，但英国到时或许会认为自己的一票已经无关大局。如果能经过协商达成这样的结果——这是一个很大的假设，因为欧洲经济区的现有成员是冰岛、挪威和列支敦士登这样的小国家——那么英国将不必再承受共同农业政策相关的负担，也将置身共同渔业政策之外，这两件事可能将深得民心。不过，英国仍将承担与单一市场有关的成本。如果即便这种负担也过于沉重的话，英国可能会重新加入成员国包括瑞士的欧洲自由贸易区(European Free Trade Area)，从而置身单一市场之外。此外，它可能离开所有组织，坚持自己在世贸组织(WTO)中的权利。选择一条出路，并与相关组织的成员进行磋商，将是一项不轻的任务。

Yet sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof. None of this needs to be decided now. The UK is a bystander at the eurozone drama. Its sensible policy is to keep its options open until the outcome is far clearer.

不过，未来的烦恼还是留给未来考虑吧。上述的这些问题都不是亟待做出决定的当务之急。英国是欧元区危机的旁观者，它的明智之举是对各种选择保持开放态度，直到形势变得更为明朗。

The question is whether domestic politics will allow it to be so sensible. A combination of Tory euroscepticism with Labour opportunism is generating a battle over the EU budget, in which the UK will alienate virtually every other member. Increasingly, the UK is viewed as a member of a club whose rules it rejects and norms it despises. A desire to repatriate powers is a rejection of existing rules. A refusal to compromise is a rejection of club norms. The British understand clubability. Eccentricity is usually acceptable. Obstructionism is not.

问题在于，国内政局是否会允许英国采取这种明智的做法。保守党的欧元怀疑主义和工党的投机主义共同作用，引发了一场关于欧盟预算的争执，而在此问题上英国将疏远几乎所有其他欧盟成员国。外界日益认为英国虽然是欧盟俱乐部的一员，却排斥它的规章，蔑视它的规范。意图收回权力是对现有规章的排斥，拒绝妥协是对俱乐部规范的无视。英国人理解俱乐部的含义，奇怪举动通常是可以接受的，但蓄意阻挠是不行的。

The relationship between an inward-looking eurozone, trying to resolve its problems, and a UK trying to become ever more detached, will be difficult. Indeed, it was always likely that the long-run consequences of the creation of the euro would be an EU in which the UK – or at least England – felt it did not fit. (Scotland might decide to leave England so it can stay in the EU.) No decision needs to be made as yet. But UK politics may not allow it to be a patient and co-operative bystander. As unnecessary irritation over relatively unimportant issues grows, the UK may be driven into a referendum over membership, even though neither the options nor the implications would then be clear. That referendum might lead towards exit. Would England at last enjoy being an offshore island off a united Europe? I strongly doubt it. But that outcome no longer seems distant.

一边是试图解决自身问题的“内向(inward-looking)的欧元区，一边是试图更加地置身事外的英国，二者之间的关系将很棘手。事实上，欧元的诞生从长远来看很可能让英国——至少是英格兰——感到与欧盟格格不入（为了留在欧盟，苏格兰可能选择与英格兰分道扬镳），这种可能性是始终存在的。眼下还无需作出任何决定。但英国政局恐怕不会让英国耐心、配合地袖手旁观下去。一些相对次要的问题正在激起越来越多不必要的愤怒，这可能迫使英国发起是否脱离欧盟的公投，尽管具体要怎样做、影响如何人们尚不清楚。公投结果可能导致英国退出欧盟。脱离团结的欧洲，做一个这样的海中岛屿，英格兰会开心吗？我深表怀疑。但现在看来，这种结果似乎离我们并不遥远。