中资银行利润增长或持续减速

The worst fears of a collapse in China's banking system are misplaced. But a continued slowdown in profit growth appears inevitable.

过于担心中国银行系统崩溃并无必要，但利润增长的持续放缓似乎不可避免。

Net profit for China Construction Bank, China's second largest by assets, increased by just 12.5% year-on-year in the third quarter. That is down from 20.1% growth in this year's second quarter and 34.1% in 2011's first quarter. Other banks are following a similar trajectory.

资产规模全国第二的中国建设银行(China Construction Bank)第三季度净利润仅同比增长12.5%，低于今年第二季度的20.1%和2011年一季度的34.1%。其他银行也出现了类似的趋势。

The deceleration would have been worse, but for a slowdown in China's economic growth that meant the government allowed more loans to sneak out the door. New loans, the main source of income for the banks, expanded 23.7% year-on-year in the third quarter.

要不是中国经济增长放缓、迫使政府允许银行加大贷款量，利润减速还会更加严重。作为银行主要收入来源的新增贷款在第三季度同比增长23.7%。

The major trends in China's financial sector continue to cut against the banks' interests.

中国金融业的主要趋势仍不利于银行业。

A bigger role for the bond market is eating into profitability. Corporate-bond issuance boomed almost 300% year-on-year in the third quarter. The banks are the major buyers in the bond market, but a 4.2% yield on one-year triple-A-rated bonds is considerably less attractive than a 6% return on a one-year loan.

债券市场扮演了更重要角色，削弱了银行的盈利能力。第三季度公司债券发行量同比涨幅接近300%。银行是债券市场的主要买方，然而一年期AAA级债券4.2%的收益率，远远没有一年期贷款6%的回报率那么诱人。

The move toward market-set interest rates is also a drag for the sector. Banks can now offer savers a rate 10% above the benchmark deposit rate and offer borrowers loans at 30% below. So far, that hasn't dented net interest margins. But with the full effects not felt until existing loans made at the old rates expire, and a further move to liberalize a distinct possibility, margins will be under pressure.

利率市场化趋势也拖累了银行业。现在银行可以向储户提供高于基准10%的存款利率，并向借款人开出低于基准30%的贷款利率。这一点到目前为止还没有对净利息收益率造成明显影响。但全部影响要到按旧利率发放的旧贷款到期之后才会显现，而利率进一步自由化的可能性也明显存在，所以利差将会承受压力。

On the positive side, bad debts remain low. But fears of an increase in credit problems as economic growth has slowed and as shaky loans from the 2010 stimulus boom fall due remain. Bank claims on other banks stayed high at 40% of total loans, up from 25% at the end of 2010. That suggests problem loans are being shuffled around rather than resolved.

好的一面在于坏账水平仍然较低。但人们还是担心，随着经济增长放缓、2010年刺激浪潮期间形成的问题贷款到期，信用问题会越来越严重。银行同业债权高居贷款总额的40%，高于2010年年底的25%。这意味着问题贷款并没有化解，而是在银行之间转来转去。

Shares in China's major banks have rebounded from their lows. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China has risen to 5.20 Hong Kong dollars (67.1 U.S. cents) this week from a low of HK$3.99 in July. With China's growth stabilizing, and few signs of a bad-loan crisis, it is easy to see why. But a continued deceleration in profit growth means the gains should be limited.

中国主要银行的股价已从低点反弹。本周中国工商银行(Industrial & Commercial Bank of China)股价从7月份的3.99港元上涨到5.20港元。考虑到中国经济增长企稳、坏账危机迹象不多，上涨原因不难明白。但如果利润增长持续减速，那么上涨幅度应该是有限的。