饲料涨价迫使美国养殖业限制产量

One of the biggest US pork and turkey producers is taking radical action against the effects of soaring feed prices. It is sending animals to slaughter with less meat on their bones rather than fattening them on the farm.

美国最大的猪肉和火鸡生产商之一正采取激进做法，以图消除饲料价格飙升的影响。这家厂商不等把农场里的动物养肥、让它们长足份量，就把它们送往屠宰常

“We lose less money if we sell less pounds, says John Prestage, senior vice-president at Prestage Farms. “These high feed prices are absolutely killing us.

普来斯蒂农场(Prestage Farms)高级副总裁约翰·普来斯蒂(John Prestage)表示：“我们卖得越少，亏得就越少。饲料价格这么高，真是要了我们的命。

It is large grain consumers such as Prestage that will determine the direction of agricultural commodities markets in coming months. With much of the US corn and soyabean crop harvested after the worst drought in decades, and the South American season just starting, demand is driving grain prices.

未来数月，农产品市场的走向将取决于普来斯蒂这类大量消耗粮食的公司。几十年来最严重的旱情过后，美国大部分玉米和大豆已收割完毕，南美则刚到播种季节，需求正在推高粮食价格。

Corn and soyabeans are used in industries from -animal feed mills to biofuel refiners. So-called demand rationing, the painful process of livestock culling and plant shutdowns, should keep grain stocks from falling to critically low levels. But the early evidence -suggests such rationing has not gone far enough.

从动物饲料加工厂到生物燃料提炼厂，玉米和大豆在工业中的应用非常广泛。所谓“约束需求（demand rationing，指屠杀剔除病弱牲畜和关闭工厂的痛苦过程），应当避免把粮食库存降到极低的水平。但初步证据显示，约束需求做得还并不到位。

The US National Oil-seed Processors Association, which includes Archer Daniels Midland, Cargilland Louis Dreyfus Commodities, says its members crushed more soyabeans in September than the same month a year ago. “That will have to slow, and eventually it will because we’ll just run out of soyabeans, but right now it’s not happening, says Darrel Good, agricultural economist at the University of Illinois.

美国油籽加工者协会(US National Oil-seed Processors Association)表示，其会员9月份大豆压榨量要高于上年同期。该协会的会员包括阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰(Archer Daniels Midland)、嘉吉(Cargill)和路易达孚(Louis Dreyfus Commodities)。伊利诺伊大学(University of Illinois)农业经济学家达雷尔·古德(Darrel Good)表示：“我们必须慢下来，最终肯定要这么做，因为我们的大豆库存终究会用完的，但目前还没用完。

Indeed, China, the destination for more than 60 per cent of the world’s soyabean exports, imported record tonnage in September and advance sales from the US are galloping ahead of last year’s pace. The government has been supporting pig farmers by buying frozen pork and “hog supply continues to rise despite the slowdown of China’s economy, Rabobank says.

实际上，在进口量占到全球大豆出口总量60%的中国，9月份大豆进口吨数创下了纪录，美国的预售速度也远远超过去年。中国政府一直为支持养猪农户而购买冻猪肉，荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)表示，“尽管中国经济开始放缓，但生猪供应量依然在增加。

Bunge, the soyabean processor and agricultural trading house, has said stronger currencies and low freight rates had blunted the impact of higher commodities prices for many Asian consumers. “The demand out of Asia remains pretty strong, Drew Burke, chief financial officer, said on a conference call yesterday.

大豆加工和农业贸易商邦吉(Bunge)表示，本国货币汇率提高加上运费较低，削弱了农产品涨价给很多亚洲消费者带来的影响。该公司首席财务官德鲁·伯克(Drew Burke)在昨天的一次电话会议上表示：“亚洲的需求仍然相当强劲。

The US Department of Agriculture forecasts that Thailand, Turkey and Vietnam, each a top 10 soyabean importer, will increase purchases this year.

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Washington, meanwhile, is buying $100m of pork and $50m of chicken to help domestic farmers struggling with high feed costs and low meat prices.

美国农业部(USDA)预计，泰国、土耳其和越南今年将增加大豆采购量。它们都是大豆进口量排在全球前十名的国家。

In the US livestock and poultry industries, demand rationing has been uneven.

与此同时，美国也将购买价值1亿美元的猪肉和5000万美元的鸡肉，以帮助本国养殖农户摆脱饲料成本高、但肉价较低的困境。

The government’s quarterly pig report showed a breeding herd 5.8m strong – a minuscule 0.3 per cent decline from a year earlier. New York-listed Smithfield Foods, the world’s biggest pork producer, has not cut back on the 135m bushels of corn and wheat and 1m tonnes of soya meal it feeds pigs each year.

美国牲畜和家禽养殖行业，约束需求出现了不均衡状况。

“Our farms are running at or near capacity, the company says. Many companies, including Smithfield, hedged feed costs at lower levels earlier this year, leaving them much less sensitive to high prices now. Prestageof North Carolina says its use of feed has declined about 7.5 per cent since it began selling lighter pigs and turkeys.

美国政府的养猪业季度报告显示，种猪养殖量达到580万头，比上一年同期略低0.3%。在纽约上市的世界最大猪肉生产商史密斯菲尔德食品(Smithfield Foods)，还没有降低每年所消耗的饲料数量。该公司每年养猪用掉玉米和小麦1.35亿蒲式耳，用掉豆粕100万吨。

At chicken farms, the number of eggs to be hatched into broiler chickens was running at or above last year’s levels until just last week, when it fell 4 per cent to 177m eggs. Sanderson Farms, a New York-listed chicken producer, can -process 9.4m birds per week. But it will slow operations next month, says Mike Cockrell, chief financial officer.

该公司表示：“我们的养殖场正在满负荷或者接近满负荷地运转。包括史密斯菲尔德食品在内，很多公司今年年初以对冲操作降低了饲料成本，因而对目前的高价不太敏感。北卡莱罗纳州(North Carolina)的普来斯蒂农场表示，自从开始销售未长足份量的猪和火鸡以来，他们的饲料使用量减少了大约7.5%。

“We plan to run at 96 per cent of full capacity for the foreseeable future, he says. “We believe high-priced grain is a reality until we get into next spring and maybe get some help from South America.

在养鸡场，孵为肉用仔鸡的鸡蛋数量一直与去年或者更高，直到上周才发生逆转，下降到1.77亿只，降幅为4%。在纽约上市的鸡肉制造商桑德森农场(Sanderson Farms)每周加工的禽类数量为940万只。但该公司首席财务官麦克·克雷尔(Mike Cockrell)表示，下个月他们将减少加工量。

Beef producers are rationing demand more vigorously. The number of cattle placed on US feedlots, vast pens where they feast on corn before shipment to meatpackers, fell 19 per cent on year in September, the USDA reports.

他表示：“在可预见的未来，我们计划把加工量维持在满负荷量的96%。我们相信，明年春季之前高粮价始终都是一个现实，或许我们将从南美得到一些帮助。

The ethanol industry, the largest single user of the US corn crop, has cut output about 10 per cent from a year ago, with a corresponding reduction in corn demand. Yet it is still expected to use 42 per cent of the US corn crop.

牛肉生产商正在更积极地约束需求。美国农业部报告显示，9月份美国饲养场(牛在高大的围栏靠吃玉米长大，然后被运往屠宰加工厂)的养牛数量同比下降了19%。

Barring blockbuster South American crops in the next six months, some argue prices will need to rise again to spur rationing. “You can’t use corn and soyabeans at the rate you used them last year. There is not enough, says Chris Hurt, agricultural economist at Purdue University. “You’ve got to ration.

美国玉米消耗量最大的行业——乙醇业的产量也比去年下降约10%，其玉米需求量也随之减少。然而，该行业的玉米消耗量预计仍将占到全美玉米产量的42%。

Additional reporting by Emiko Terazono in London

有人认为，如果未来六个月南美农业不会大丰收，价格将继续上涨以约束需求。“现在大家不能以去年速度消耗玉米和大豆了，供应量已经不够了。普渡大学 (Purdue University)农业经济学家克里斯·赫特(Chris Hurt)表示，“你只能压低需求量。

寺园惠美子(Emiko Terazono)伦敦补充报道