美国大选与金价

If it were down to gold investors to decide the US election, Mitt Romney would walk it, writes Jack Farchy.

如果让黄金投资者来决定美国大选结果的话，米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)肯定要出局。

Gold bugs, always worried about potential currency debasement,care more than most about the US government’s indebtedness; the Republican party’s rhetoric of deficit reduction appeals to them.

看多黄金的人（他们总是担心潜在的货币贬值）比多数人更关心美国政府的负债水平；共和党的减赤言论对他们颇有吸引力。

It is thus ironic that the single greatest risk to gold at the moment is probably a Romney victory in next week’s presidential elections.

具有讽刺意味的是，目前金价面临的最大风险可能就是罗姆尼在下周总统大选中获胜。

“A win by Romney is generally seen by investors as a downside risk for gold, says Joni Teves of UBS. “Nobody wants to do anything until the elections are out of the way.

“投资者普遍认为罗姆尼获胜将对金价构成下行风险，瑞银(UBS)的乔尼·特维斯(Joni Teves)表示，“大选结果出来前，谁也不想采取行动。

History supports the case. As James Steel of HSBC notes, gold’s most dramatic rallies – in 1980 and 2011 – have occurred with Democrats in the White House (Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama). And if Mr Romney can succeed in cutting the deficit, that could lead to a stronger dollar and, therefore, weaker gold.

历史印证了这一看法。正如汇丰银行(HSBC)的詹姆斯·斯蒂尔(James Steel)所指出，金价出现最大涨幅时，担任美国总统的都是民主党人——在金价涨幅最大的1980年和2011年，美国总统分别是吉米·卡特(Jimmy Carter)和巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)。如果罗姆尼能够成功地削减赤字，可能会导致美元走强，从而拉低金价。

But the real “Romney risk for the yellow metal has nothing to do with fiscal policy. Instead, traders and investors are focusing on the likelihood that if Mr Romney wins the November 6 election, he would replace Ben Bernanke with a more hawkish Federal Reserve chairman when his term expires in January 2014.

但对于黄金而言，真正的“罗姆尼风险与财政政策没有关系。实际上，交易商和投资者关注的是这种可能性：如果罗姆尼在11月6日大选中获胜，他将在现任美联储(Fed)主席本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)2014年1月结束任期时，换上一位立场更激进的人物。

If that means a change in direction from the Fed’s current experimental and super-accommodative monetary policy, gold could suffer.Recall the sharp sell-offs earlier this year when expectations of quantitative easing were deferred.

如果这意味着美联储目前实验性的超宽松货币政策发生转向，那么金价可能会受到打压。不妨回忆一下今年早些时候，市场对美联储推出定量宽松政策的预期迟迟不能实现时金价大跌的情形。

Tom Kendall of Credit Suisse notes that an improvement in Mr Romney’s polling results has coincided with a sharp increase in investors buying put options that would protect them against a fall in prices. The buying, he says, “is related to investors reappraising the likelihood of a Romney victory in the US presidential election, and interpreting that possible outcome as being somewhat bearish gold (on the basis that a Republican president would be more likely to encourage tighter fiscal policy).

瑞信(Credit Suisse)的汤姆·肯德尔(Tom Kendall)指出，民调结果显示罗姆尼支持率上升之时，买进认沽期权的投资者数量恰好也大量增加——这种做法将保护投资者不会因金价下跌而蒙受损失。他表示，与这一现象“息息相关的，是投资者重新评估了罗姆尼赢得总统大选的几率，并且认定这一可能的结果将对金价构成利空（理由是共和党总统收紧财政政策的可能性更大）。

Likewise, an Obama victory may be the green flag gold bulls have been waiting for.

同样道理，奥巴马获胜可能正是金价看涨者一直期待的牛市启动信号。

Not only does it suggest a tussle over the forthcoming fiscal cliff with a House of Representatives most likely controlled by Republicans, but, more importantly, it removes the threat of a change in monetary policy. Under an Obama presidency, Mr Bernanke is likely to be replaced as Fed chairman with a similarly dovish voice, such as Janet Yellen, the current vice-chair.

奥巴马获胜将预示着，他会和众议院（极有可能被共和党控制）就正在逼近的“财政悬崖发生争执，更重要的是，这一结果会化解货币政策转向带来的威胁。如果奥巴马再次当选，伯南克的继任者可能是一位持有类似鸽派立场的人物，比如现任美联储副主席珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)。

Some dealers are already anticipating the possibility of an Obama victory with relish.

一些交易商已开始美滋滋地期盼奥巴马获胜了。

Tobina Kahn, vice-president of House of Kahn, a Chicago-based jewellery group, predicts higher sales “because people are looking to preserve their assets.

总部位于芝加哥的珠宝集团House of Kahn副总裁托比那·卡恩(Tobina Kahn)预测黄金销量将上升，“因为人们希望保护资产价值。

“If Obama gets re-elected gold is going to go through the roof.

“如果奥巴马再次当选，金价将一飞冲天。

The Commodities Note is a daily online commentary on the industry from the Financial Times

The Commodities Note是英国《金融时报》有关大宗商品行业的每日在线评论