中美处于重大转折点

Complaints of political gridlock and vested interests are not unusual, but it is surprising when it is Washington insiders levelling such criticism at China.

有关政治僵局和既得利益的抱怨没什么不寻常，但是，当华盛顿圈内人士对中国提出这样的批评时，就让人意外了。

Ahead of the US election, Washington is worried about whether politicians can reach a budget deal after November 6 to avoid the “fiscal cliff. But China watchers in the US fear Beijing is on the verge of a similar moment of truth as the Chinese Communist party prepares to unveil its next generation of leaders in two weeks’ time.

美国大选前夕，华盛顿的人们担心政界人士能否在11月6日投票日之后达成预算协议，以避免“财政悬崖。但美国的中国观察人士担心，北京即将迎来一个类似的关键时刻。中国共产党正准备在两周内让下一代领导层亮相。

The pending leadership change has crystallised a shift in US views of China, from the steamroller that surged out of the 2010 financial crisis to the more familiar story of a government unable to make tough decisions in the face of powerful interest groups.

即将到来的领导层换届，使美方对中国看法的转变明朗化，从迅速摆脱2010年金融危机的势不可挡的经济增长发动机，到人们更为熟悉的叙述：面对强大的利益集团，政府无法做出艰难的决策。

“Both China and the US are now at a critical turning point, where past approaches require a major change or they will face real economic dangers, says Kenneth Lieberthal, a former White House official now at the Brookings Institution. “In the US it is our fiscal situation; in China it is the need for major economic restructuring.

“中国和美国现在都处于一个关键的转折点，需要对以往的方式进行重大改革，否则它们将面临真切的经济危险，白宫前官员、现在是布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)高级研究员的李侃如(Kenneth Lieberthal)表示。“在美国，关键在于我们的财政形势；在中国，关键在于需要进行重大经济结构调整。

While China’s economy has recorded near double-digit growth for a decade, the emerging US view of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao is of leaders who have fumbled efforts to introduce economic and political reform.

尽管中国经济10年来年年实现接近两位数的增长，美方对中国国家主席胡锦涛和总理温家宝逐渐形成的看法是，这两位领导人在推行经济和政治改革方面表现欠佳。

Beijing has long talked of the need to shift China’s economic model from investment and exports towards consumption and services. Politicians including Mr Wen have also talked about the need for a more open political system.

北京方面多年来一直在谈论有必要改变中国经济模式，使其从投资和出口转向消费和服务。温家宝等政治人物还谈到有必要实行更加开放的政治体制。

While there have always been sceptics in the US about the Chinese leaders’ ability to push through such changes, that kind of pessimism about the prospects for reform in China has become widespread over the past year.

尽管美国一直有人对中国领导人推动此类改革的能力表示怀疑，但过去一年里，这种对中国改革前景的悲观看法变得普遍。

During previous transitions, observers paid much attention to the biographies and personalities of the new Chinese leaders. This time, however, there is much more focus on whether the Chinese political system has become too clogged by special interests to tackle difficult problems.

在以往的领导层过渡阶段，观察人士将很大一部分注意力集中于中国新领导人的生平和个性。这一次，各方在更大程度上聚焦于这样一个问题：中国的政治体制是否已在太大程度上被特殊利益堵塞，以至于难以处理棘手的问题？

“The issue is not whether the new leaders introduce reforms, it is whether they can implement those reforms, says Stapleton Roy, a former ambassador to China. He says the success of state-owned companies over the past decade has created a “Frankenstein’s monster that the party cannot control easily. “Their monopoly position has allowed them to acquire vast monetary assets that they can use to back their own agenda, he adds. “It sounds somewhat similar to our situation in the US.

“问题并不在于新一代领导人会否出台改革，而是在于他们能否实施这些改革，美国前驻华大使芮效俭(Stapleton Roy)表示。他表示，国有企业在过去10年期间取得的成功，已经制造出一个“弗兰肯斯坦的怪物，连党都不容易掌控。“它们的垄断地位让它们获得巨大财力，它们用这些资源来推进自己的议程，芮效俭补充说。“这听上去跟我们在美国面对的局面有点相似。

David Shambaugh, a China specialist at George Washington University, says that over the past three years there has been a “period of retrogression, where the system cannot seem to take the initiative.

乔治华盛顿大学(George Washington University)中国问题专家沈大伟(David Shambaugh)表示，过去3年里，中国出现了一段“倒退期，体制似乎无法采取主动。

He questions whether the new leaders will be able to introduce changes in the face of opposition from state-owned companies, the People’s Liberation Army, local officials and the government bureaucracy.

面对国有企业、解放军、地方官员和政府官僚机构的反对，新一代领导人能否推行改革？他对此表示怀疑。

“The system is becoming fragile, sclerotic, atrophying, he says. “It is showing some the classic signs of dynastic decline.

“这套体制正趋向脆弱、硬化、萎缩，他表示。“它正显示出一些王朝衰败的典型迹象。

Jon Huntsman, US ambassador to China in 2010-11, spent time with some of the new generation of Chinese leaders. He describes Xi Jinping, the man expected to become president, as “comfortable in his own skin, “confident and “engaging.

2010年至2011年期间担任美国驻华大使的洪博培(Jon Huntsman)与中国新一代领导人中的一部分人有过一些来往。他形容预期将出任国家主席的习近平“气定神闲、“自信和“富有魅力。

This strikes a contrast with Mr Hu, with whom US officials have sometimes had a distant, even frosty, relationship.

这与胡锦涛形成反差。美国官员们有时觉得他们与胡锦涛之间的关系疏远，甚至冷若冰霜。

“He is a pragmatist who knows very well how to work the system, the PLA, the princelings and the party, says Mr Huntsman.

“（习近平）是一个务实的人，他很清楚应该如何对付体制、军方、太子党和党，洪博培表示。

But the Chinese-speaking former Republican presidential hopeful believes that within two to three years, Mr Xi will face pressure from a fast-changing society to set out a political reform agenda. “If people do not see a game plan being laid out, then the temperature is really going to rise sharply, he says.

但是，通晓中文、曾角逐共和党总统候选人的洪博培相信，两三年内，快速改变的中国社会将给习近平带来压力，要求他拿出一个政治改革的议程。“如果人们看不到一份行动计划，那么紧张状态将大幅升温，他表示。

After three years in which Beijing’s foreign policy has often been more assertive than in the past, observers are also looking for clues as to whether the new leadership will bring a different view of how China should deal with the rest of the world.

过去3年期间，中国的外交政策往往比以往更加强悍。因此，观察人士也在寻找各种线索，看新一代领导层是否将在中国应如何与世界其它国家打交道的问题上带来不同视野。