在线教学会淘汰“差老师”吗？

Guitar teacher Erich Andreas works from a basement studio in Nashville, Tenn. His classroom, though, is the world itself.

吉他老师埃里希·安德烈亚斯(Erich Andreas)在田纳西州纳什维尔(Nashville)的一个地下工作室教弹吉他，而他的课堂，是整个世界。

Across one hour, Mr. Andreas may be giving free video lessons to up to 1,500 people who stream his yourguitarsage.com broadcasts to points across the globe -- Chicago, London, Bucharest, Manila.

在一个小时的上课时间里，会有多达1500人在yourguitarsage.com上收看安德烈亚斯的免费吉他教学视频。这些人来自世界各地──从芝加哥、伦敦、布加勒斯特到马尼拉。

The current hype is that ubiquitous Internet connections and tablet devices will emerge as a competitive threat to real-life teachers, kill the textbook business and bring low-price learning to billions around the world.

这种传播依靠无处不在的互联网和平板电脑，将对现实生活中的教师职业构成巨大威胁，甚至会完结教科书市场，给全世界数十亿人带来低成本的学习机会。

Such big changes may take a generation, as problems at many for-profit colleges are showing today. But these forces are already at play, in full smashup glory, in what has happened to the simple guitar lesson.

从很多营利性大学现如今所面临的问题来看，如此巨大的转变可能需要一代人的时间。但是，这些力量已经开始发力，带着颠覆性的光环，体现在简单的吉他教学上。

The Internet already has devalued some musical knowledge -- musicians have been swapping song cheat-sheets on the Web for 15 years. Cheap and easy-to-use online video and a new generation of teaching apps have refined and broadened the scope for sharing similar know-how.

互联网已经使一些音乐知识贬了值──15年来音乐人一直在网上交流歌曲“小抄。既便宜又方便的在线视频和新一代的教学应用程序，改变和拓宽了共享知识技能的范畴。

But, if the guitar world is any indication, we will still need the kind of teachers who stand in front of a room and talk. We will just need fewer of them.

但是，即便吉他教学市场的发展趋势有一些指示意义，未来我们还是需要有老师能够站在“教室里，侃侃而谈。只是，不再需要那么多了而已。

'I don't know if in-person classes are really necessary,' says Thomas Sundboom, a 62-year-old guitar student in Balsam Lake, Wis., who is learning to play Creedence Clearwater Revival songs. He pays $40 a month for access to Mr. Andreas' site, less than half the $100 a month he paid for conventional lessons. 'That should put a downward pressure on prices, for sure.'

家住威斯康星州鲍尔瑟姆湖(Balsam Lake)、现年62岁的吉他学生托马斯·桑布姆(Thomas Sundboom)称，“我不知道面对面的上课是否真有必要。他正在学习弹奏清水合唱团(Creedence Clearwater Revival)的歌曲。现在，他每月支付40美元访问安德烈亚斯的网站，不到以前缴纳的传统课程学费100美元的一半。他说，“这肯定会对市场形成降价压力。

That's why this part of the $9 billion music-education industry shows what lies ahead for all kinds of education, both formal and informal.

虽然吉他教学只是总规模达90亿美元的音乐教育市场的一部分，但它足以显示各种教育（包括正规和非正规教育）的未来前景。

There will be big business opportunities for a select group of star teachers and a handful of companies, too. The downside: Schools and teachers will have to adapt to lower-cost competition from around the country and the world. And they may have to acknowledge that technology might be better at many tasks done today by a fidgety teacher and a metronome.

对于那些明星教师和少数公司来说，这也意味着巨大的商机。但负面影响是：学校和老师将不得不去适应全国乃至世界各地的低成本竞争。而且他们可能不得不承认，在完成很多现在由心情烦躁的老师和乐器完成的任务上，科技可能会做得更好。

'Traditional guitar teachers may find that the online approach will impact them significantly,' says Gary Ingle, executive director of the 22,000-member Music Teachers National Association. 'Right now there is a great sorting out period.'

拥有22000名会员的全美音乐教师协会(Music Teachers National Association)的执行理事加里·英格尔(Gary Ingle)表示，“传统吉他老师会发现在线教学方式将严重影响他们。现在就是一个剧烈的淘汰期。

The first transition in this marketplace is what is best called a 'media model,' in which a handful of personalities have become do-it-yourself broadcasters. They include instructors like the 43-year-old Mr. Andreas, who uses a series of free YouTube videos and live lessons via webcam to draw students to his $40 monthly subscription plan. Today he has 170 subscribers.

这个市场上的第一次转变被很形象地称为“媒体模式，即少数个人成为DIY传播者，其中就包括像安德烈亚斯这样的教师。43岁的安德烈亚斯通过一系列免费的YouTube视频和通过摄像头传输的直播课程，吸引学生加入他40美元/月的教学计划。目前他有170个用户。

On YouTube, the biggest teaching star by far is Justin Sandercoe, a West London guitar instructor who started a website in 2003 with text-only pointers for aspiring players.

在YouTube上，目前为止最大的教学明星是贾斯汀·桑德科(Justin Sandercoe)，他是伦敦西部一位吉他老师，在2003年创办了一家网站，只用文字指点有追求的演奏者。

In July 2006 he uploaded his first video to YouTube and later put in 12-hour days recording a catalog of instructional videos. Today he has 170,000 subscribers, and his meticulous, enthusiastic lessons have been downloaded nearly 130 million times.

2006年7月桑德科向YouTube上传了第一部视频，之后他每天工作12个小时录制出一套教学视频。如今，他已拥有17万学生用户，他讲解细致、富有激情的视频教程被下载了近1.3亿次。

This base of support has changed Mr. Sandercoe's life. He now flies around the world, paying for his travel by giving in-person lessons to his fans. He also occasionally does one-on-one sessions via online video -- at the very real-life rate of $100 a lesson. He says he earns a 'pretty decent living.'

这种支持改变了桑德科的生活。他现在满世界飞，通过亲自向粉丝授课来支付旅行费用。他偶尔也通过在线视频进行一对一的教学，每节课的价格为100美元，已经相当于面对面授课的收费标准。他表示，这使他拥有了“相当体面的生活。

'I can do it wherever I like now,' he says on a Skype call. 'I had personal experience with teachers who were terrible. I hope my lessons will kill off that kind of teacher.'

桑德科在Skype上与记者通话时说，“只要愿意，现在我能随时随地授课。我曾经切身体会过与可怕的老师打交道，希望我的教学方式能让那样的老师销声匿迹。

The business problem with such media models is that production can be ramped up only so much -- it largely relies on one person's available time.

这种媒体模式的商业问题在于，产量只有这么多，很大程度上依赖于一个人的可用时间。

Which brings us to the next step: the development of new learning programs that aren't media in any traditional sense. Using mobile broadband, graphics and cloud computing, they are real-time feedback devices that can listen to a student play and track how well she is following streaming sheet music.

这促使我们又向前迈进一步：开发不属于任何传统媒体意义的新的教学程序。利用移动宽带、图形和云计算，有关设备能听到学生的演奏，跟踪学生按照乐谱演奏的进步情况，并实时反馈信息。

One system under development by a small California company called Chromatik Inc. will allow students to follow digital sheet music, then submit a performance of that music to a teacher for review. The teacher will be able to digitally annotate the performance and send it back to the student. All the performances will be stored online.

加州小型公司Chromatik Inc.正在开发一个系统，允许学生按照数字乐谱演奏，然后将演奏过程提交给老师评审。老师能通过数字方式对演奏进行点评并发送给学生。所有演奏都将被在线存储。

Robert Hutter, managing partner at $65 million venture fund Learn Capital, says these new programs don't cut out teachers, but rather extend 'the power of the teacher to many more people in the same amount of time.'

规模有6500万美元的风险投资基金Learn Capital的执行合伙人罗伯特·胡特尔(Robert Hutter)表示，这些新程序不是减少教师的数量，而是扩大“老师在相同时间里为更多人教学的能力。

Motivation and discipline still lie at the heart of becoming a good musician. And it is here that technology still falls short of a traditional teacher's care and attention.

学习动机和严格自律依然是成为优秀音乐家的要素。而在这方面，传统老师能够给予的关心和帮助，依然是科技所无法取代的。

In fact, technology in some ways makes the problem worse. Devices have made it so 'kids can't focus,' says Albany, N.Y., guitar teacher Jason Ladanye. 'They don't make kids the same way anymore. They don't see the value in doing the work.'

事实上，科技在某些方面会使问题变得更糟。纽约州奥尔巴尼(Albany)的吉他老师杰森·拉达尼(Jason Ladanye)表示，设备让“孩子无法集中精力。他们无法让孩子像以前一样学习。他们看不到那样学习的价值。

Mr. Hutter, the venture capitalist, says that problem is solvable. He cites new studies that show social-network interplay -- wisecracking banter among students -- unlocks a greater ability to retain knowledge. 'If you're learning and engaging in a social community, that lights up the brain. That is the magic of this moment.'

风险投资人胡特尔则认为，这个问题是可以解决的。他指出，新的研究显示社交网络的交互功能（例如学生之间说说俏皮话）增强了获取知识的能力。他说，“在网络社区学习和互动有利于开动大脑。这就是神奇之处。

Over time, perhaps, the traditional guitar teacher may become less of a gate keeper of knowledge and more of a motivator of the distracted student.

也许，随着时间的推移，传统的吉他老师不再是知识的看门者，而是成为敦促学生集中精力的激励者。

Teachers will be coaches, not priests.

到那时，老师将更像教练，而不是仅仅灌输知识的人。