美国外交的困局

The prolonged campaign for the White House shows why the US finds it so difficult to pursue a rational foreign policy in a world of unprecedented complexity. Articulating foreign policy in the heat of an election produces an irresistible temptation to proclaim simplistic remedies to complicated foreign challenges.

争夺白宫的持久选战表明，在空前复杂的世界环境中，美国要有一套理性的外交政策实属不易。在选战的激烈辩论期间阐述外交政策，会让人不自觉地针对复杂的外国挑战提出简单化的补救措施。

Hence the hasty public declarations that Bashar al-Assad of Syria must go even before a realistic US policy to achieve that goal had been formulated. And hence the deference shown to the fevered pleas of Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, for an ultimatum to Iran and the repeated references to the eventual use of US military power, without much consideration for potential regional or even global consequences. Hence, also, the pledge by Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential candidate, to announce that on day one of his presidency – without any prior negotiations – he would take punitive steps against China’s “currency manipulations, irrespective of likely retaliation.

因此，美国仓促宣称叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)必须下台，即使为达到这一目标的现实的美国政策并没有形成。因此，美国显示了对以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)强烈诉求的顺从，即对伊朗发出最后通牒，并一再提出最终将动用美国军事力量，而不充分考虑潜在的地区乃至全球后果。同时，共和党总统候选人米特·罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)也在没有任何事先协商的情况下，宣称如果当选，他将在上任的第一天就对中国的“汇率操纵行为采取惩罚举措，而不考虑可能的报复。

Alas, such a foreign policy – derived from politically expedient, short-term commitments – risks setting in motion dynamics that ultimately lead to international chaos. In particular, the idea that the US could somehow ensure Israel’s future by imposing a new order in the Middle East – through the forceful export of “democracy to both Syria or Iran – is dangerous daydreaming.

可惜，这种权宜的、短期的政治承诺所催生的外交政策可能会启动各种不可预知的动态，最终导致国际混乱。特别是，美国可以通过强制向叙利亚和伊朗输出“民主，建立中东新秩序，从而保障以色列的未来，这简直是危险的白日梦。

The post-1945 US domination of the Middle East is receding rapidly while the region is in the midst of upheaval. Most of the prevailing borders, which date back to the Anglo-French diktats following the first world war and the concurrent disintegration of the Ottoman empire, are shaky. Even the region’s major states, notably Iran and Turkey, are vulnerable to internal ethnic and religious strains.

美国在1945年后在中东的主导地位正在急剧下降，该地区正处于动荡之中。可追溯到一战后英法主导及奥斯曼帝国解体时期的大部分现有边界陷入不稳定。就连该地区的主要国家，尤其是伊朗和土耳其，也很容易受到内部民族和宗教紧张的打击。

In this flammable setting, an American intervention in Syria or a military strike against Iran either by Israel or the US would be likely to set off a region-wide explosion. Iraq is still suffering from the divisive consequences of the US military invasion. It is on the brink of disruptive Sunni-Shia violence. It would not take much effort by Syria or Iran to ignite it. Nearby, Lebanon and Jordan are both also vulnerable.

在这种一触即发的背景下，美国对叙利亚出手干预，或者是以色列或美国对伊朗发动军事打击，都可能引发一场地区动荡。伊拉克仍在遭受美国军事入侵的分裂后果。该国濒临逊尼派-什叶派之间发生破坏性暴力冲突的边缘。叙利亚或者伊朗都能轻易引爆这场冲突。邻近的黎巴嫩和约旦也很容易受到冲击。

An explosive crisis in the region would have consequences elsewhere. The inevitable rise in the price of oil – prompted by increased insurance costs even were the Strait of Hormuz forcefully kept open by the US Navy – would wreak havoc on Europe’s financial recovery. Differences among European states would intensify. Britain would be tempted to distance itself from European allies in favour of becoming, in the Atlantic Ocean, the equivalent of America-dependent Japan in the Pacific.

该地区爆发的危机可能给其他地区带来后果。即使美国海军能够强制维持霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)畅通，但保险成本的增加仍不可避免地会导致油价上涨，从而给欧洲金融复苏带来冲击。欧洲各国之间的分歧可能加大。英国可能会与欧洲盟国保持距离，转而变得像依赖美国的太平洋国家日本，成为大西洋的“日本。

Russia would have little reason to accommodate America. It could feel free to press the Europeans to respect its geopolitical aspirations in Ukraine and even Georgia, in exchange for some concessions regarding the price of its energy exports. Motivated by Vladimir Putin’s anti-American bias, it would seek closer strategic co-operation with China. A China already annoyed by America’s inclination to define its “pivot to Asia in military terms, and offended by the threats voiced in the US elections, may not be indifferent to such self-serving Russian temptations.

俄罗斯将没有理由去迎合美国，它可以向欧洲施压，要求他们尊重其在乌克兰甚至是格鲁吉亚的地缘政治抱负，以换取俄罗斯在能源出口价格上做出一些让步。在弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)反美偏见的推动下，俄罗斯可能会寻求与中国建立更紧密的战略合作。而中国早已对美国不满，因为美国倾向于从军事上界定其“转向亚洲的战略，并在竞选期间发出针对中国的威胁，因而中国也许不会对俄罗斯出于自身利益的示好无动于衷。

As the presidential campaign unfolds, Israel is forfeiting the opportunity to make itself an accepted and enduring part of the Middle East through its determination to colonise much of the West Bank. Yet a genuine partnership with a viable Palestinian state could create a centre of technological and financial innovation similar to Singapore in southeast Asia. It could also prompt closer collaboration with an Egypt that is basically not eager to become involved in sectarian Arab conflicts.

在美国大选竞选期间，以色列执意对约旦河西岸大部分地区进行殖民化，从而丧失了使自己成为中东的一个得到接受和持久的部分的机会。相反，若与一个能够生存的巴勒斯坦国家结成真正的伙伴关系，就有望创造一个与东南亚的新加坡类似的技术和金融创新中心。它还可能推动与埃及这个不太热衷于卷入阿拉伯宗派冲突的国家建立更紧密合作。

A serious and comprehensive policy analysis will come only after the election on November 6 and once the political temperature has cooled. Regardless of whether Barack Obama or Mr Romney wins the election, the next US president must quickly address the foreign policy challenges that have been sadly neglected in this election campaign. A detailed review should produce four timely US decisions.

只有在11月6日大选之后、政治降温后，才能进行严肃而全面的政策分析。无论是巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)还是罗姆尼赢得了大选，下一任美国总统都必须尽快应对这场竞选中不幸被忽视的外交政策挑战。仔细分析就会得到美国应该及时做出的四个决策。

First, on Syria, to engage Russia and China in support of an internationally mandated and monitored ceasefire, as a cooling-off phase before internationally supervised elections.

第一，叙利亚方面，应该呼吁俄罗斯和中国支持国际强制和监督的停火，作为国际监督下的选举之前的一个冷却阶段。

Second, in the absence of agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue, to continue tightening sanctions and pledge publicly that the US will retaliate against any threat by Tehran to any Middle Eastern state – including Israel – in the same fashion it would have responded to a Soviet threat to its allies during the cold war.

第二，在伊朗核问题无法达成一致的情况下，继续强化制裁，并公开承诺，如果伊朗威胁包括以色列在内的任何中东国家，都将遭到美国的报复，与冷战期间苏联对美国盟国的威胁采取类似的应对方式。

Third, to provide strong and explicit support for a more politically united Europe through an updated joint Atlantic Charter.

第三，更新《大西洋宪章》，为一个在政治上更加统一的欧洲提供强大而明确的支持。

Fourth, to undertake a high-level strategic dialogue with the new Chinese leadership to codify the fundamental interest of both countries in avoiding a replay of Europe’s tragic wars of the 20th century.

第四，与中国新一届领导班子开展高层战略对话，明确两国的根本利益，避免重演欧洲在20世纪的悲剧战争。

The writer was US national security advisor to President Carter and author of ‘Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power’

本文作者是卡特总统(President Carter)时期国家安全顾问，著有《战略视野：美国和全球实力的危机》(Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power)