奥巴马第二任期何去何从？

The lazy take on the US elections says nothing much has changed. Barack Obama is in the White House, Republicans control the House and Democrats the Senate. Washington is heading back to gridlock as usual. Oh, and the economy is running at stall speed. As for the multitudes of Obama supporters around the globe, they will probably be disappointed again.

对美国大选结果持懒惰观点的人认为，一切都没有改变。巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)继续留在白宫，共和党依然控制着众议院，民主党则控制着参议院。华盛顿正在像往常一样重陷僵局。噢，还有经济也正在失速。全世界支持奥巴马的民众恐怕又要失望了。

The trouble with analyses such as this is the presumption that we live in a steady state world. Mr Obama’s re-election has changed the dynamics of American politics. Given the economic backdrop and the force of his opponents’ rage, it was a momentous victory. America’s first black president can leave behind the fear, ever present during the past four years, that his place in history would carry the footnote that he had served only one term.

这一类分析的问题在于，它有一个前提，即认为我们生活在一个静止的世界中。但奥巴马再次当选改变了美国的政治动态。考虑到目前的经济背景以及对手愤怒下的影响力，这是一场重大胜利。这位美国的首位黑人总统现在能够抛却过去4年间一直盘桓心头的恐惧：历史在书写他的地位时，会加上他只担任了一届总统的脚注。

Republicans have serious thinking to do. Not that long ago Karl Rove, the pre-eminent Republican strategist, was boasting that he had built a permanent majority. The party then harnessed everything to the effort to defeat Mr Obama. Having bet the bank, it lost the lot in circumstances as propitious as any opposition party could have hoped for. The delicate Mr Rove has been left spluttering that the Democrat campaign was unfairly negative.

共和党需要展开严肃思考。不久前共和党杰出的策略师卡尔·罗夫(Karl Rove)曾夸耀，他为共和党建立起了永久性多数地位。然后该党不遗余力地要击败奥巴马。共和党压上了所有身家，其形势之有利，任何对手都梦寐以求，结果却一败涂地。优雅的罗夫只能语无伦次地说，民主党在竞选活动中采用了不正当的消极手段。

The GOP risks becoming a permanent minority on the national stage. The Republicans have won the popular vote in only one of the past six contests for the White House. Piling up the support of protestant white men in the south does not amount to a winning strategy. Immigration, demography and social tolerance will continue to narrow the party’s path to the presidency. As long as Republicans rail against this New America of cultural and ethnic diversity they will lose presidential elections.

大老党（GOP，美国共和党的别称）在美国的国家舞台上面临成为永久性少数的风险。在入主白宫的过去六场角逐中，共和党只赢得了一场普眩积聚起南方新教徒白人的支持算不上必赢战略。移民、人口和社会包容问题将继续挤压共和党通往总统之位的道路。只要共和党继续反对以文化和种族多元化为特点的“新美国，他们就赢不了美国总统大眩

None of this is to say that Mr Obama will emerge as a leader of Rooseveltian stature and ambition; nor that conservatives will rush headlong into the muddy middle ground of politics. Yet the looming confrontation over the deficit presents opportunities on both sides – for Mr Obama the occasion to show bold leadership; for Republicans a chance to demonstrate pragmatism in the national interest. The rules of the game, though, have changed. The Republicans now have most to lose. If he borrows some of Bill Clinton’s political guile, Mr Obama can outflank his opponents with a grand bargain on the deficit.

这并不是说，奥巴马将成为具有罗斯福那样声望和雄心的领导人；也不是说保守派将一头冲进泥泞的政治中间派路线。不过，即将在赤字问题上出现的对抗将为双方都提供机会：奥巴马可以借机展现大胆的领导风格；共和党则可以在国家利益方面展现务实主义。但是，游戏的规则已经改变。现在共和党是最大的输家。如果奥巴马能借用一点比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)的政治手段，他能够在赤字问题上取得重大优势，制胜对手。

The rest of the world will not wait on budget talks in Washington. The pace of global change has never been so tumultuous. Whether it’s the political awakening in the Middle East, a new leadership in China or austerity politics in Europe, it is a fair bet that many of today’s assumptions will be overturned during Mr Obama’s second term.

世界其他国家不会等待美国的预算谈判。全球变化的步伐从未如此剧烈。不管是中东的政治觉醒、中国领导人换届还是欧洲的紧缩政治，人们都完全可以说，在奥巴马第二总统任期内，今天的很多设想都将被颠覆。

There are some things he cannot change. US power is increasingly contested. The quality or otherwise of the US relationship with China will in future be the hinge of international security. As for the Middle East, it will be harder to escape its treacherous conflicts than many in Washington hope.

但有些事情他改变不了。美国权力面临的竞争日益激烈。未来美中关系的质量好坏关系到国际安全。中东则更加难以避免变化莫测的冲突，其程度之甚将远超过美国政府中很多人的期望。

Among the briefing documents soon to thud on Mr Obama’s desk will be the National Intelligence Council’s assessment of how the world might look in 2030. Some of its messages will be reassuring. Rising gas and oil production have set the US on course for self-sufficiency. Before too long, its oil exports may match those of Saudi Arabia.

奥巴马的书桌上很快将摆上大量简报文件，其中之一将是美国国家情报委员会(National Intelligence Council)对2030年世界前景的评估。其中一些信息将令人欣慰。美国油气产量增加使美国走上了自给自足的道路。不久，美国的石油出口量或将与沙特比肩。

Yet relative decline is unavoidable. Washington’s capacity to cajole and coerce will diminish as China, India, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa and the rest occupy more of the stage. The international order will be sorely tested by great power competition.

然而，美国相对衰落是不可避免的。随着中国、印度、土耳其、巴西、南非等国在国际舞台上的地位上升，美国政府劝诱胁迫其他国家的能力将下降。大国竞争将严重地考验国际秩序。

Mr Obama, I suspect, wants to recast the US as a selective superpower – backing, say, the popular clamour for democracy in the Arab world, but declining to commit US blood and treasure to the cause. This is not going to be easy in the face of murderous regimes such as that of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.

我怀疑，奥巴马想把美国重塑为一个有选择的超级大国。例如，美国支持阿拉伯世界普遍要求民主的呼声，但拒绝为这一事业贡献美国人的生命财产。面对叙利亚巴沙尔·阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad)这样的血腥政权，做到这一点不会很容易。

The president has laid his own trap over Iran. A promise to prevent Tehran from securing a nuclear capability is a promise no president can keep. Bombing nuclear sites could delay things, but at the cost of a war no one (save Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu) wants. Tehran will ultimately make its own decision about the bomb. The route to a non-nuclear Iran has to start with an offer of everything-on-the-table talks.

总统在伊朗问题上为自己设下了陷阱。他承诺要阻止伊朗获得核武器，但任何一位总统都无法兑现这种承诺。轰炸伊朗核电站能够拖延时间，但会付出战争的代价，而任何人（以色列的本雅明·内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)除外）都不想点燃战火。伊朗在核武器问题上最终将自行做出决定。要想让伊朗走向无核之路，首先要举行一切都摆在桌面上的谈判。

The strategic challenge from Xi Jinping’s China resides in containing collisions. What little is known about Mr Xi suggests he will be tough in asserting China’s rights and interests. So far, Mr Obama’s policy has been to engage and hedge – to strengthen co-operation while reviving US alliances across east Asia. This is not a bad starting place, but, given the maritime tensions in the region, it offers flimsy assurance of stability. What is needed is a Sino-American framework robust enough to withstand the inevitable shocks.

应对习近平主政下的中国所带来的战略挑战可以归于“遏制冲突。关于习近平人们知之甚少，就人们所知的来看，他将坚定地维护中国的权益。迄今为止奥巴马的政策一直是接触和包围——加强合作，同时恢复美国在东亚的盟友。这个起点还不算坏，但考虑到东亚地区的领海紧张局势，保证稳定的希望渺茫。现在必须在中美之间建立起牢固的合作框架，以抵挡未来不可避免的冲击。

Plenty of other points of crisis can be added to such a checklist – Afghanistan, Pakistan and Israel-Palestine among them. Vladimir Putin has to be managed; Europeans encouraged to fix the euro. Untying only one or two of the Gordion knots would be measured as a significant achievement for a second term.

这份清单中还可以加入许多其他危机点——阿富汗、巴基斯坦以及巴以问题等等。弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)必须受到节制；欧洲人必须鼓起勇气解决欧元危机。只要解开一两个这样的难解之结，就将成为奥巴马第二任总统任期内的重大成就。

Most important, though, will be the manner in which Mr Obama deploys US power – the strategic signals he sends to allies and adversaries alike about global order. He could simply assemble coalitions of the willing to advance US interests. A president with an eye to history would sketch the contours of a new international settlement. Mr Obama has won a famous election victory. It would be a great pity, for the world as much as for the US, if he did not grasp its opportunities.

但是，最重要的是，奥巴马如何部署美国的力量，这是他就全球秩序向盟友和对手发出的战略信号。他可以仅仅召集起支持者联盟，推进美国的利益。然而，一位有历史观的总统将为新的国际格局画出轮廓。奥巴马已经赢得了一场著名选举。如果他未能抓住这次机遇，那将是美国的遗憾，也是全世界的遗憾。