香港担心美国QE3的影响

On two days within a week late in October the Hong Kong Monetary Authority intervened in the currency markets to contain the value of the local currency. Action was taken to maintain the exchange rate within the allowable range relative to the US dollar and buttress the currency peg. Some US$1.25bn was taken out of circulation and the flows are expected to continue as international investors and speculators alike take advantage of some of the side-effects of the latest round of monetary stimulus in the US known as QE3.

在今年10月下旬的一周里，香港金管局(HKMA)两天干预外汇市场以维持港元汇率。金管局采取措施保持港元兑美元汇率在可允许范围内波动，并维护盯住美元的汇率制度。约12.5亿美元退出了流通，同时受美国最新一轮货币刺激政策(QE3)的一些副作用的影响，预计国际投资者和投机者的资金将继续流入香港。

The authority intervened five times before the month-end, injecting HK$17bn (US$2.2bn) in total. This is perhaps the clearest evidence yet that the latest action taken by the US central bank threatens to stimulate the appetite for investment in Asia and be the catalyst for a revival in asset prices across the Asian region.

香港金管局在10月底之前5次干预外汇市场，总共注入了170亿港元（合22亿美元）资金。这或许是迄今最为明显的证据，证明美国央行出台的最新举措可能激发国际资本投资亚洲的兴趣，并成为整个亚洲地区资产价格复苏的催化剂。

During September and October China shares listed in Hong Kong rose by more than 15 per cent, lifting sentiment for a beleaguered asset class that had underperformed its regional peers for the prior 12 months.

在今年9月和10月期间，港股上涨逾15%，提振了这个此前12个月表现落后于亚太其他股市的资产类别。

The promise of quantitative easing globally has also brought foreign capital back to Chinese mainland itself. Amid reports of capital outflow from China as wealthy individuals look to park money offshore, there has been reported monetary expansion in the country partly explained by foreign inflows, although not significant enough yet to influence sentiment for the mainland stock market among domestic investors.

全球定量宽松的前景也让外国资本重新进入中国内地市常尽管有报道称，由于中国富人考虑将资金转移至海外，资本大量流出中国，但也有迹象表明，外国资本流入在一定程度上导致内地货币扩张，尽管它们的规模还不足以影响内地股市投资者的情绪。

Hard on the heels of this currency market intervention and in a move clearly aimed at mainland investors in Hong Kong, the government sought to curb speculation in the local property market by imposing a tax on non-Hong Kong residents buying property.

在对外汇市场干预之后不久，香港政府寻求抑制当地房地产市场的投机行为，出台了针对非香港居民买楼的印花税，此举显然针对香港的内地投资者。

This is further evidence that authorities are highly sensitive to the threat posed by hot money entering the financial system and causing asset price inflation. In the past, increasing stock market liquidity together with rising asset prices has stimulated demand for mutual funds among retail investors.

此举进一步表明，香港当局对流入香港金融体系并导致资产价格上涨的热钱带来的威胁极为敏感。在过去，股市流动性日益增长加上资产价格不断上涨，刺激了散户投资者对共同基金的需求。

During the first round of US quantitative easing mutual fund sales recovered from the effects of the global financial crisis. Equity fund net sales reached US$8.8bn in 2010 in Hong Kong compared with a net outflow for this year until the end of August of US$850m. Back in 2010 Greater China mutual funds accounted for some 36 per cent of total net sales.

在美国推出首轮定量宽松期间，共同基金销售刚刚摆脱了全球金融危机的影响。香港股票基金净销售在2010年达到88亿美元，而今年前八个月则为净流出8.5亿美元。在2010年，投资于大中华地区的共同基金占净销售总额的36%左右。

Similar fears that international flows would stimulate another asset price bubble in the region have caused some of the region’s central banks to stay cautious at a time when underlying economic conditions suggest otherwise. In October, and despite signs of a weakening economy, Singapore’s central bank chose not to cut interest rates and joined both India and China in their effort to suppress potential inflationary pressure.

同样由于担心国际热钱流入将激发另一场资产价格泡沫，亚洲地区某些国家的央行保持谨慎，尽管目前的经济基本面不支持这种姿态。今年10月，尽管有迹象表明经济趋弱，但新加坡央行没有选择降息，而是加入印尼和中国的行列，努力抑制潜在的通胀压力。

Asian central banks had learnt the lesson previously of how policy initiatives in the US can have consequences in their economies and are intent on not stoking inflationary pressure at this time of the cycle.

亚洲各国央行早已明白美国政策举措对它们经济的影响，不打算在经济周期的这个阶段引发通胀压力。

Fund flow data for emerging markets more generally show a return to the asset class coincident with and since the Federal Reserve announcement. So far this reallocation to emerging markets has been the result of a switch from developed market equity funds and has not yet indicated a new and significant allocation to equities overall.

新兴市场资金流入数据大致表明，自美联储(Fed)宣布推出QE3以来，国际资金重新回到该资产类别。迄今，这种对新兴市场的重新配置一直源自对发达市场股票基金的减持，还没有表明资金大规模转向股票这个资产类别。

In Asia, China funds have been capturing much of these flows, with Hong Kong listings being the preferred way to gain exposure. Within emerging market funds, asset allocators have been rebuilding exposure to India as confidence has returned to what had been an underperforming market.

在亚洲，这些资金流动有相当一部分流入了中国基金，购买港股成为获得中国敞口的首选方式。在新兴市场基金内部，随着投资者对近期表现不佳的印度市场恢复信心，资产配置者在重建印度市场的头寸。

In Hong Kong whether the latest bout of monetary stimulus in the US causes investors to rebuild their equity mutual fund positions remains to be seen. For most of 2012 investors have followed the global herd in hunting for yield. Total bond fund sales stood at almost US$23bn at the end of August with high yield bonds accounting for 26 per cent of these gross sales; the trend has continued in the fourth quarter.

在香港，美国最新一轮货币刺激政策是否导致投资者重建股票共同基金头寸依然尚不清楚。就2012年大部分时间而言，投资者追随国际资本寻求收益。债券基金销售总额在8月底保持在近230亿美元的水平上，其中高收益债券的销售占到26%；第四季度继续延续这种趋势。

As these bond funds come under pressure to maintain competitive yields and pay regular dividends there could well be a reallocation to equity funds if stock markets across Asia finish the year strongly. Sensing the pressure and as a result of tightening bonds spreads some high-yield bond funds in Hong Kong have hard-wired in a provision to maintain dividends by paying investors out of capital rather than from the income received from the underlying bonds.

随着这些债券基金受到保持竞争性收益率和定期支付股息的压力，如果亚洲各地股市年底强劲上涨，国际资本很可能重新配置到股票基金。感受到这种压力，再加上债券息差日益缩小，香港部分高收益债券基金加入一个条款，拟用资本（而不是从标的债券获得的收入）向投资者支付股息。

This approach typically runs out of steam as investors realise that the capital value is being depleted. A rally in Asian stock markets resulting from stimulus in the US and elsewhere may well accelerate this realisation.

随着投资者意识到资本价值缩水，这种策略通常会失去势头。由于美国和其他地区的刺激政策而导致的亚洲股市上涨很可能加快这种意识过程。

Mark Konyn is chief executive of Cathay Conning Asset Management, based in Hong Kong

本文作者康礼贤(Mark Konyn)是香港国泰康利资产管理有限公司(Cathay Conning Asset Management)行政总裁