日本再陷衰退 首相选情告急

Japan has entered its fifth recession in 15 years just days before the December 16 election, which is expected to sweep the Democratic Party of Japan and Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda from power.

日本在距大选只有数日之际进入其15年来第五次衰退，将在12月16日举行的大选预计会将日本民主党(DPJ)及首相野田佳彦(Yoshihiko Noda)请下权力顶峰。

Shinzo Abe, leader of the opposition Liberal Democratic party, has attacked the DPJ and the central bank for failing to stir demand in an economy that has shrunk in three of the past four years, while calling for further fiscal stimulus and “unlimited monetary easing.

反对党自民党(LDP)党魁安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)攻击民主党及日本央行在日本经济在过去四年里有三年收缩的情况下未能刺激需求，他呼吁实行进一步财政刺激以及“无限的货币宽松政策。

Government data yesterday showed that Japan’s gross domestic product shrank an annualised 3.5 per cent in the three months to September, as the country joined Italy and Spain in recession. The government also revised down its GDP estimate for the quarter, saying the economy shrank an annualised 0.1 per cent.

昨日发布的政府数据显示，日本国内生产总值(GDP)在截至9月的三个月期间以3.5%的年率收缩，表明日本继意大利和西班牙之后进入衰退。此外，日本政府还下调了本季度的GDP预期，表示经济将以0.1%的年率收缩。

Even with fiscal and monetary support, the economy may continue to struggle amid uncertainty over external demand, limited wage rises and a tight labour market.

即便有财政与货币政策的支持，日本经济在外需不确定、加薪幅度有限以及劳动力市场供应紧张的情况下可能继续挣扎。

Separate government data showed household confidence fell to an 11-month low. “We expect Japan’s economy will continue to lack strength due to weak exports and stagnating domestic demand, said Takeshi Yamaguchi, economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.

另有政府数据显示，日本消费者信心降至11个月来的低点。摩根士丹利三菱日联证券(Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities)经济学家Takeshi Yamaguchi表示：“由于出口疲弱以及国内需求停滞，我们预计日本经济会持续疲软。

While Japanese economic data are often substantially revised months after release, the latest revision highlights the difficulty of achieving sustained growth after the 2008 global financial crisis and the earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.

尽管日本经济数据在发布几个月后经常会大幅修订，但最新修订突显日本经济在2008年全球金融危机和2011年3月地震及海啸之后难以实现持续增长。

Mr Abe, who has made reviving the economy a centrepiece of his campaign, argues that more aggressive monetary policy and a hefty increase in debt-funded infrastructure spending would put an end to the mild deflation that many economists say has hobbled Japanese growth since the 1990s.

在选战中将重振经济作为中心议题的安倍晋三声称，更为激进的货币政策及通过举债大举增加基建支出，将终结上世纪90年代以来的温和通缩，许多经济学家表示，正是这种通缩阻碍了日本经济增长。

Mr Noda has portrayed such proposals as a potentially dangerous assault on central bank independence and a return to the wasteful construction policies that have helped saddle the state with gross debt of more than twice GDP.

野田佳彦形容此类提议是对央行独立性的潜在危险打击，同时重拾已导致日本政府总债务达到GDP两倍多的浪费巨大的建设政策。