英国央行行长金警告未来或爆发汇率战

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King warned of the risk of currency wars in the coming year as nations search for new ways to spur their economies in a world of slow growth and few other good options.

英国央行(Bank of England)行长默文·金(Mervyn King)警告称，由于全球经济放缓迫使各国寻求刺激经济增长的新方式，同时也因为缺乏其他有效途径，明年各国之间可能会爆发货币战争。

A cheap currency, in theory, makes exports more competitive and thus helps spur economic output. In a speech at the Economic Club of New York and in a subsequent interview with The Wall Street Journal in which he elaborated on his ideas, Mr. King said this could become the new policy tool of choice in the months ahead as nations work to deliver growth.

从理论上来说，低汇率能够提高一国的出口竞争力，从而促进经济产值增加。金在纽约经济俱乐部(Economic Club of New York)的演讲及随后接受《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)的采访中表示，为实现经济增长，未来一段时间中，汇率可能会成为各国新的政策工具。

'I do think 2013 could be a challenging year in which we will, in fact, see a number of countries trying to push down their exchange rates. That does lead to concerns. Will other countries react in kind? What will happen?' Mr. King said in the interview. 'The policies pursued by countries for domestic purposes are leading to tension collectively.'

金在采访中表示，2013年将是充满挑战的一年，一些国家可能将试图压低本国汇率，这是一个令人担忧的问题。其他国家是否会效仿这种方式？最终会出现什么情况？各国为解决国内问题而采取的政策将共同导致相互之间的关系趋于紧张。

Mr. King's comments are notable because the Bank of England has been a closely watched innovator in the central-banking community and he is respected by his peers.

金的上述言论值得注意，因为一直以来，英国央行都是全球各国央行中颇具创新精神的一员，受到市场的密切关注，金也颇受同行人士的尊重。

His warnings about currency wars-in addition to some new warnings about the limits of quantitative-easing programs to boost growth-are sure to get the attention of other central-bank leaders and investors.

因此，金对于汇率战的警告肯定会引起其他央行官员以及投资者的注意。他还对旨在提振增长的定量宽松措施的限度发出了新的警告。

The comments were part of a broader lament by Mr. King about a world economy out of balance. Countries with large trade surpluses, including Germany, the Netherlands and China, should be stimulating domestic demand but have little incentive to move quickly, he said. Others with large trade deficits need to act fast to stimulate growth, but have limited options.

上述言论是金有关世界经济失衡讲话的一部分。他称，包括德国、荷兰和中国在内的一些拥有巨额贸易顺差的国家应当刺激国内需求，但这些国家几乎没有迅速采取此类措施的动力。其他存在大规模贸易逆差的国家也需要迅速采取措施刺激经济增长，但这些国家可以动用的手段却已非常有限了。

Mr. King said the world now 'desperately' needs countries with large trade surpluses to boost their own domestic economies to rebalance global growth.

金指出，目前世界经济迫切需要拥有巨额贸易顺差的国家促进国内经济增长，从而推动全球增长恢复平衡。

A number of nations--including Switzerland, Japan and Brazil--are struggling to tamp down their strong currencies to avoid losing the benefits or exports, he said.

他称，包括瑞士、日本和巴西在内的一系列国家正在努力抑制本国货币的上涨势头，以免失去出口优势。

Compounding the problem, the traditional policy tool used by central banks to spur growth--lower interest rates--has been pushed to its limits, Mr. King argued. Policy rates in the U.S., U.K., Europe, Japan and elsewhere are near zero.

金指出，央行为刺激增长通常采用降息这种传统政策工具，但这一工具的使用已经到了期限水平，这就使得问题更加复杂化。目前美国、英国、欧洲、日本和其他一些国家地区的政策利率都已接近零。

'It is not easy to see how you can have another significant further easing of monetary policy,' he said.

金称，已经很难再次实施大力度的货币宽松政策了。

The Bank of England chief sounded a number of cautionary notes about the scope for the U.K. central bank to expand its own stimulus programs, most notably its 375 billion British pound ($602 billion) bond-purchasing program.

此外，金也对于英国央行扩大经济刺激方案的规模发表了一系列谨慎言论，尤其是针对该央行规模3,750亿英镑（约合6,020亿美元）的债券购买计划。

While he didn't rule out an expansion of that program, he said there was a limit to how much it could accomplish.

虽然他没有排除扩大上述方案规模的可能性，但表示这样做的程度是有限的。

He noted that low interest rates work by inducing households and businesses to bring future spending forward to the present. That can't be carried on indefinitely or without limit, he said.

金指出，低利率政策通过促使家庭和企业将未来的支出提前进行来实现对经济的刺激，但不能无期限或无限度地实施这一政策。

Bond-buying programs are meant to drive down long-term interest rates to spur spending and investment and to flood the financial system with money.

债券购买计划旨在推低长期利率，从而刺激支出和投资，同时增加金融系统的流动性。

'The ability of monetary policy to sustain demand inevitably has diminishing returns,' he said.

金称，货币政策维持需求的作用不可避免地将越来越校

'To the extent you're in a position where unemployment could be picking up or isn't falling as it should do, there may be a case for further asset purchases. That would depend on the particular economy. But I think what is fair to say is people can see we've done an awful lot. There are limits to how far monetary policy can be effective in the very long run shifting spending for the future to today.'

他表示，如果失业率可能处于上升趋势中或者应降而未降，实施进一步的资产购买举措或许有据可依。这取决于具体国家的具体情况，但可以说央行在这方面已经做了很多工作。长期来看，货币政策对于刺激提前开支的有效性是有限的。

Eventually, he said, central banks face a challenge unwinding their asset purchase programs. For instance, reducing their portfolios could disrupt markets.

金称，各国央行最终将需要面对退出资产购买方案将带来的挑战，例如，减持资产组合中的资产可能会对市场产生破坏作用。