联想智能手机销量大增 机遇与挑战并存

Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. may be the dominant smartphone brands in the world, but in China, there's a fast-growing competitor that threatens their leadership.

从全球范围来看，苹果(Apple Inc.)和三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co.)或许可以说是智能手机市场的主导者，但在中国，却杀出一个增长迅猛、危及其领先地位的竞争者。

Chinese personal-computer maker Lenovo Group Ltd. sold twice as many smartphones than Apple in the third quarter and moved closer to overtaking Samsung as the largest vendor in the country, which is widely forecast by researchers to outgrow the U.S. as the biggest smartphone market in the world this year. But Lenovo's smartphone business is also facing a challenge as it expands quickly: how to squeeze out a profit in an industry where many players compete on price and struggle to make money.

生产个人电脑(PC)的中国企业联想集团有限公司(Lenovo Group Ltd.)今年第三季度售出的智能手机数量是苹果的两倍，同时也拉近了它与中国市场上销量最大的三星电子的差距，且大有赶超之势。研究人员普遍预计，中国将于今年超越美国，成为世界上最大的智能手机市常但在迅速扩张的同时，联想的智能手机业务也面临挑战：如何在一个对手如林、拼价格且难以赚到钱的行业里挤压出利润？

Lenovo's smartphone sales in the three months through September grew 18 times from a year earlier thanks to strong demand in China, indicating that the overall growth in the world-wide smartphone market is no longer driven by the U.S. or other mature markets. That also raises the question as to whether there could be a third winner in the global smartphone industry, other than Apple and Samsung--the only two handset vendors enjoying strong profits now. Analysts say Lenovo has the potential, despite many challenges ahead.

由于中国需求旺盛，今年第三季度联想智能手机的销量较上年同期高出了17倍，这说明全球智能手机市场的整体增长不再靠美国或其他成熟市场推动。此外，这还引出了另一个问题：全球智能手机行业是否会出现苹果和三星电子之外的第三个赢家？目前只有苹果和三星电子两家智能手机生产商实现了强劲利润。分析人士说，尽管前路挑战重重，联想仍有迎难而上的潜力。

'Lenovo's strength is that its China PC business is a cash cow that can fund the cost of its smartphone expansion,' said Barclays managing director Kirk Yang, who covers the technology hardware industry. Profits from PCs allow Lenovo's smartphone business to prioritize growth over profitability for now, he said. Lenovo's PC business in China had an operating margin of 5.9% in the quarter through September.

巴克莱(Barclays)负责硬件技术业的董事总经理杨应超说，联想的优势在于，它中国市场的PC业务很赚钱，可为智能手机的扩张提供资金。他说，PC业务获利使得联想可优先考虑智能手机业务的增长问题，而不是盈利。今年第三季度，联想在中国市场上的PC业务实现了5.9%的营运利润率。

Explosive demand among first-time smartphone users in China and other emerging markets is changing the dynamics in the global handset market, creating potential opportunities for players other than Apple and Samsung to obtain enough economies of scale to take on the two giants. The big challenge, however, is the fierce price competition in the market for inexpensive smartphones: many players trying to outsell each other in that market risk becoming chronically unprofitable.

由于中国和其它新兴市场上初次使用智能手机的用户有着爆炸性需求，全球智能手机市场的格局正在不断变化，这为苹果和三星电子以外的竞争者带来了潜在机遇，它们可争取到足够的挑战这两位巨头的规模经济。不过，这里也存在巨大挑战，即廉价智能机在市场上会遭遇激烈的价格竞争，原因是市场上有很多竞争者在拼销量，因此可能面临长期不盈利的风险。

Lenovo says that its smartphone business is unprofitable, without disclosing the loss figure. But its market share in China, where it sells most of its handsets, soared to 14.8% in the quarter through September from just 1.7% a year earlier. That's second only to Samsung's 16.7% and well ahead of Apple's 6.9%, according to Gartner, which predicts that Lenovo will become the No. 1 smartphone vendor in China by next year.

联想说，自己的智能手机业务目前并不盈利，但没有披露亏损数据。不过据研究机构Gartner的统计，联想占中国智能手机市场的份额已从去年第三季度的仅1.7%大幅增至今年第三季度的14.8%，仅次于三星电子16.7%的占比，大大领先于苹果的6.9%。中国是联想智能手机销量最大的市常Gartner预测联想将在明年底之前成为中国第一大智能手机生产商。

Lenovo Chief Executive Yang Yuanqing said during a conference call this month that the company hasn't been able to generate a profit in smartphones due in part to investment in marketing and sales channels. Mr. Yang said he expects the business to become profitable in China in two to three quarters.

联想首席执行长杨元庆在本月公司召开的电话会议上说，由于营销投入和销售渠道等原因，联想还未能在智能手机领域获利。杨元庆说，他预计未来两至三个季度后，该业务将在中国市场实现盈利。

Lenovo is also trying to expand its mobile business outside China - it now sells smartphones in India, Indonesia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Russia, and plans to enter other emerging markets.

此外，联想也在努力扩大其海外手机业务。该公司的智能手机目前在印度、印尼、越南、菲律宾和俄罗斯有售。联想还计划进军其它新兴市常

'We have a very long-term view on our smartphone business,' said Lenovo spokesman Jeff Shafer. Once the company can grab market share of more than 10%, the scale gives it more bargaining power in dealing with component suppliers and telecommunications carriers in the market, resulting in lower costs and consistent profits, he said. If the smartphone business in China becomes profitable, that profit could also help fund growth elsewhere, he added.

联想发言人谢弗(Jeff Shafer)说，我们在智能手机业务上的眼光极其长远。他说，一旦联想能够夺取10%以上的市场份额，在市场上与组件供应商和电信运营商打交道时就会有更大的议价权，进而可以降低成本并持续盈利。他还说，如果联想在中国的智能手机业务能够盈利，这笔利润还可能为联想在其他业务领域的增长提供资金。

Globally, Lenovo held a 3.7% share of the smartphone market in the quarter through September, up sharply from 0.37% a year earlier, thanks to its rapid growth in China, according to IDC. Apple and Samsung not only accounted for nearly half of world-wide smartphone shipments, but also 106% of the industry's profits due in part to losses at other competitors like Nokia Corp. and Research In Motion Ltd., according to Canadian brokerage firm Canaccord Genuity.

国际数据公司(IDC)的数据显示，由于联想在华智能手机业务迅猛增长，在截至9月底的一个季度，联想在全球智能手机市场中所占的份额为3.7%，较上年同期的0.37%大幅上升。据加拿大经纪公司Canaccord Genuity的数据，苹果和三星的智能手机发货量在全球总发货量中占了近一半，此外，部分由于诺基亚(Nokia Corp.)和Research In Motion Ltd.等其他竞争对手的亏损，苹果和三星的利润占了行业总利润的106%。

Still, some analysts are skeptical about whether such a strategy can be executed successfully world-wide.

尽管如此，令一些分析人士感到怀疑的是，联想的这样一种战略是否能够在全球成功实施。

'The strategy of initially seeking a large market share in terms of volume, and then trying to increase margins later, rarely works,' said Nicolas Baratte, CLSA's head of technology research for the Asia Pacific region. Intense price competition keeps margins thin because most smartphone vendors are unable to differentiate their products, he said.

里昂证券(CLSA)亚太地区科技产业研究部主管巴拉特(Nicolas Baratte)说，这种先是在销量上争取获得较大的市场份额、然后再努力提高利润率的战略很少成功。他说，激烈的价格竞争使利润率微薄，因为大部分智能手机厂家都难以使自己的产品与众不同。

In China, Lenovo's smartphone business may be better positioned than rivals due to brand recognition and wide distribution channels, but the company may face greater challenges abroad, other analysts said.

其他分析人士说，在中国，由于品牌认知度和广泛的分销渠道，联想的智能手机业务可能比竞争对手处于更有利的位置，但该公司可能在海外面临较大挑战。

Mr. Shafer said that Lenovo has been trying to strengthen its global branding and marketing over the past few years, and consumer recognition of its PCs in overseas markets will help differentiate its smartphones.

谢弗说，过去几年中，联想一直在努力加强全球品牌打造和营销工作，在海外市场中消费者对其个人电脑的认知度将有助于使其智能手机获得与众不同的地位。

Even if Lenovo's smartphone business becomes profitable in China, pressure on its margins won't ease, analysts say, noting that prices of low-end handsets are falling faster than expectations. Over the past year, the prices of entry-level smartphones in China have dropped by 40% to 50%, according to a CLSA report last week. More smartphones sold at about 1,000 yuan ($160) now come with higher technological specifications, such as larger screens, better cameras and more powerful processors. 'The scary implication here is that these phones do not differ greatly in terms of quality and performance' from higher-priced branded handsets, the report said.

分析人士说，即便联想的智能手机业务在中国实现盈利，其利润率面临的压力也不会减轻。他们指出，低端手机降价的速度比预期更快。据里昂证券上周发布的报告，过去一年里，中国入门级智能手机的价格累计跌了40%到50%。如今，更多价格在人民币1,000元左右的智能手机都具有更高的配置，比如更大的屏幕、更高像素的摄像头和更快的处理器。报告说，由此暗示出的一个令人担心的问题是，这类手机在质量和性能方面与价格更高的品牌手机相差并不大。

Some Lenovo smartphones in China sell for less than 1,000 yuan, while its high-end models are over 2,000 yuan, according to the company.

据该公司说，联想部分智能手机在中国的售价不到人民币1,000元，而联想高端手机售价在2,000元以上。

'We are very determined to offer many different products - a wide range of choice that covers everything, not just high-end or low-end (smartphones) but also in the middle,' said Milko van Duijl, Lenovo's president of Asia Pacific and Latin America in an interview with The Wall Street Journal last month.

联想亚太及拉美区总裁杜伊尔(Milko van Duijl)上个月接受《华尔街日报》采访时说，我们下定决心提供很多不同产品──包括形形色色的各类产品，不止是高端和低端智能手机，也有中档手机。

Lenovo, which acquired International Business Machines Corp.'s PC business in 2005, is now the world's second-largest PC vendor, according to IDC, and is expected to become No. 1 soon by overtaking Hewlett-Packard Co. Still, the potential growth in the overall market for traditional PCs is limited compared with smartphones and tablets.

联想2005年收购了国际商业机器公司(IBM)的个人电脑业务。国际数据公司的数据显示，联想目前是全球第二大个人电脑销售商，预计将很快超过惠普(Hewlett-Packard Co.)坐上头把交椅。不过，与智能手机和平板电脑相比，传统个人电脑市场的增长潜力有限。

Lenovo launched its first smartphone in 2010 and created a new business unit called the Mobile Internet Digital Home group last year to focus on developing smartphones and tablets. In May, the company announced plans to invest about $800 million on a new facility in China to develop and produce mobile products.

联想2010年推出首款智能手机，去年组建了一个新的业务部门──移动互联和数字家庭业务集团，专注于智能手机和平板电脑的开发。今年5月，该公司宣布将投资约8亿美元在中国新建一个移动产品开发生产中心。