保障全球粮食供应安全亟待行动

Is it because the warning bells ring so loudly that no one seems to hear them? What with elections and the euro crisis, there are plenty of distractions.

是不是因为警钟太响，反而没有人能够听到？人们被各种选举和欧元危机分散了太多的精力。

But there will be 200,000 more mouths to feed around the world tomorrow – literally. To meet demand, we will need to produce the same amount of food in the next 40 years as we did in the past 8,000. But global wheat production is expected to fall more than 5 per cent this year, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) says.

平均来看，世界每天增加20万人口需要养活。为了满足这个需求，未来40年我们需要生产与过去8000年等量的粮食。但联合国粮农组织(FAO)表示，今年全球小麦产量预计将下降5%。

The challenges of food security – of providing a lot more, with a lot less – are complex, immense, frightening and urgent. They are urgent because our task is not only planning for 2050, when we will need to feed an extra 2bn people. We also have to act for today, when 870m people will go to sleep hungry.

在更少的土地上生产更多的粮食，这一粮食安全面临的挑战非常复杂、严重、可怕而又紧急。之所以说它是一个紧急的问题，是因为我们不仅要为2050年规划（届时全球将会增加20亿张嘴巴），同时还需要今天就行动，因为现在就有8.7亿人吃不饱。

There has been a 20 per cent drop in wheat yields in the US this year. The EU harvest is down by 6m tonnes – in Russia and Ukraine it will be reduced by more than 35m. The FAO predicts global wheat supply in 2012-13 will fall to 661m tons. Consumption stands at 688m tons.

美国今年小麦产量下降了20%，欧盟收成也减少了600万吨，俄罗斯和乌克兰的产量下降将超过3500万吨。联合国粮农组织预计，2012-13年，全球小麦供应将下降到6.61亿吨，但消费需求却维持在6.88亿吨。

Pressure on the world’s resources is intensifying. Increased competition for these resources has been compounded by the effects of severe weather conditions. Since 2000, food prices have more than doubled because of soaring demand, with desertification, floods and drought adding significant volatility to the trend of food price inflation. To make matters worse, it is countries with already high rates of malnutrition that tend to be worst hit. People in Chad, Ethiopia and Angola spend up to 60 per cent of their weekly budget on food – much of it imported. The most vulnerable are hit the hardest by price rises.

世界资源压力在不断增加。恶劣的天气情况使得针对这些资源的竞争更加复杂化。2000年以来，由于需求迅猛增加，粮食价格翻了一倍以上。荒漠化、洪水、干旱使得粮食价格趋势更加不稳定。更糟糕的是，营养不良比率已经非常高的国家可能会受到最大的冲击。乍得、埃塞俄比亚、安哥拉每周有60%的预算用于粮食，并且大部分粮食都是进口的。最脆弱的国家受到价格增长的冲击最大。

How do we address this? There probably is no perfect answer but I passionately believe there are some very clear actions we should all be taking. The following three, drawn from my experience as the chairman of the B20 Taskforce on Food Security, which provided recommendations for the G20 in Mexico this year, should sit at the top of our collective to-do list.

我们应该如何解决这个问题呢？或许并没有十全十美的答案，但我坚信确实有一些明确的措施需要我们去落实。以下三点就是从我担任“商业20国集团会议(B20)粮食安全专责小组主席的经历中总结出来的，该小组为今年在墨西哥举办的20国集团(G20)峰会提出了一些建议。这三点应该是我们集体行动列表中的重中之重。

First, we should eliminate the use of unsustainable biofuels. Most first generation biofuels are neither environmentally efficient nor cost effective ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the demand they place on land is destabilising world food supply and increasing prices. I was encouraged to hear the European Commission say in October that it plans to limit land conversion for biofuels, but it is a small step.

首先，我们应该停止使用不可持续的生物燃料。从降低温室气体排放的角度看，大部分第一代生物燃料的环境效率和成本效率都很低，并且它们对土地的需求让世界粮食供应不稳定，也推高了粮食价格。10月份欧盟委员会(European Commission)表示，将限制生物燃料的土地使用，我感到很欣慰，但这只是一小步。

Second, we need increased investment in those parts of Africa and Latin America where the last remaining serious agricultural expansion potential lies, or wherever current yields are threatened. Governments and businesses need to direct investment towards strengthening whole value chains and improving support for smallholder farmers, particularly women. In the developing world, they make up 43 per cent of farmers – rising to 50 per cent in eastern Asia and 80 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa – but they have less access to the land, water rights, finance and education that could increase productivity. Aiding smallholder farmers is one of the most efficient ways of alleviating poverty, which makes it even more critical.

第二，我们需要对非洲和拉丁美洲任何尚存农业开发潜力的地区增加投资，也需要对目前粮食产量遭到威胁的地区增加投资。政府和企业的投资重点应放在加强整个价值链，以及强化对小农、特别是妇女的支持上。发展中国家小农占农民人数的43%，在东亚国家这一比例为50%，而在撒哈拉沙漠以南的非洲地区，这一比例则高达80%，但他们所拥有的土地、水资源、资金和教育等能够提高产量的资源却较少。帮助小农是缓解贫困的最有效方式之一，因此这尤为关键。

Third, developing country governments need to create long-term partnerships with the private sector, donors and civil society, to stimulate investment in commercial agriculture. The Copenhagen Consensus concluded that an investment in fighting malnutrition would benefit people more than any other type of investment – with a return of $30 for every $1 invested. And the World Bank found that an investment in nutrition can translate to a 2-3 per cent increase in a nation’s GDP each year, breaking the cycle of poverty that traps families and nations.

第三，发展中国家政府需要与私人领域、资助者和民间团体建立长期的合作关系，从而刺激对商业性农业的投资。“哥本哈根共识(Copenhagen Consensus)得出结论认为，在应对营养不良方面的投资是最能让民众受益的投资，平均每1美元的投资就有30美元的回报。世界银行(World Bank)研究发现，在营养方面的投资每年可以为一个国家带来2%到3%的GDP增长，打破困扰家庭和国家的贫困怪圈。

It is only by working together that we can achieve this, and there are good examples of projects to be found. But we need more of them, fast.

只有通过共同努力才能达到这个目标，现在也有很多好的项目。但我们需要更多这样的项目，并且是越快越好。

Little progress will be made unless we combine the brainpower, energy, commitment and expertise of businesses, governments and NGOs and work in partnership towards these three major ambitions.

只有我们朝着这三个主要目标，将企业、政府、非政府组织的智力、精力、奉献精神和专业知识结合起来，并协力合作，才能取得明显的进步。

This will need collective international leadership. Future G8 and G20 presidencies must keep agriculture centre stage. Business and political leaders must continue to drive initiatives, such as the World Economic Forum New Vision for Agriculture. The UN High Level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Goals – of which I am a member – also gives us a unique opportunity to cement meaningful international targets to support agricultural development.

这需要集体的国际领导力。八国集团(G8)和20国集团的未来领导人必须将农业摆在核心位置。企业和政治领导人必须继续推动各种动议，比如“世界经济论坛农业新视野(World Economic Forum New Vision for Agriculture)。关于2015年以后发展目标问题的联合国高级别小组（我是小组成员之一），也为我们提供了一个独特的机会，去落实一些具有实质意义的支持农业发展的国际目标。

But, above all, securing the future of agricultural development needs individual commitment and action on the ground. All of us, individuals, companies, policy makers and consumers, have a responsibility to act together, and the time to act is now.

但首先，保障未来农业发展，需要务实的个人奉献和行动。我们所有人，不管是个人、企业、政策制定者，还是消费者，都有职责一起行动，而现在就是行动的时刻。

The writer is chief executive of Unilever

本文作者是联合利华(Unilever)首席执行官。