忘掉财政悬崖

Every time I see a banner headline predicting the US is about to hurl itself over a fiscal cliff, I am more certain in my conviction: China may soon be the world’s largest economy, but now is the time to buy America.

每当我看到预言美国即将跌落“财政悬崖的通栏标题时，我就十分确信：中国或许不久就会成为世界最大经济体，但现在正是投资美国的时候。

The power struggle about the deficit between Barack Obama and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives could well end badly. A deal requires Republicans to admit that their no-tax-rises-ever pledge cannot survive the latest electoral defeat. Mr Obama must accept that it will take more than squeezing the rich to repair the nation’s finances.

巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)和共和党把持的众议院之间在赤字问题上的角力，很可能带来糟糕的结局。如果要达成协议，共和党必须承认，最近的选举失败表明，他们的“永久不增税承诺是行不通的。奥巴马则必须承认，要修复国家财政，仅让富人掏腰包是不够的。

That said, the risks and consequences of failure have been overdone. Even if negotiations do collapse, sequestration does not mean that the economy will be crushed by $600bn of instant tax increases and spending cuts. The impact would be felt through 2013. The short-term blow to confidence might be severe but what is threatened resembles more a slope than a cliff. If deadlock were to persist, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the US economy could shrink by 0.5 per cent next year – scarcely good news but, by European standards anyway, well short of catastrophe.

可话说回来，失败的风险和后果被夸大了。即使谈判破裂，自动生效的6000亿美元增税和支出削减也并不意味着经济将被击垮。其影响将在2013年全年逐渐感受到。短期来看，信心可能会受到巨大冲击，但这种威胁更像是一个“滑坡，而不是“悬崖。国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)预测，如果僵局无法打破，美国经济明年可能会收缩0.5%，尽管不是什么好消息，但按照欧洲标准，这远远算不上是一场灾难。

In any event, the odds must favour at least a partial deal. The other day Paul Ryan’s office was asked whether the vice-presidential candidate still felt bound by the lobbyist Grover Norquist’s infamous taxpayer protection pledge. The carefully formulated reply was that the Tea Party favourite owed allegiance to the constitution and to the voters of Wisconsin. This sounds like progress.

无论如何，最大的可能性是各方至少会达成部分协议。前几天，保罗·瑞恩(Paul Ryan)的办公室被问及，这位副总统候选人是否依然忠于游说家格罗夫·诺奎斯特(Grover Norquist)的“纳税人保护誓言。措辞谨慎的答复是，这位广受茶党欢迎的人效忠宪法和威斯康辛州的选民。这听起来似乎是一种进步。

Mr Obama holds the advantage. Without a deal, all of George W. Bush’s tax cuts will expire, leaving Republicans with the opprobrium for attacking middle class living standards. On the other hand, the president has his own incentive to strike a bargain. Restoring America is his big second-term ambition. For that he needs a budget deal.

奥巴马处于优势的地位，如果无法达成协议，乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)的所有减税措施都将失效，使得共和党背负降低中产阶级生活标准的骂名。另一方面，总统也有达成妥协的激励。恢复美国元气是其第二任期的雄心，因此他需要一项预算协议。

Looking ahead, as long as the US does not follow Europe in the self-defeating game of competitive austerity, the fiscal gap can be closed over time through a less than draconian mix of tax increases and spending cuts alongside sustained growth. The US economy has already shown a vibrancy that European governments would die for.

展望未来，只要美国不像欧洲那样投入竞相紧缩的自毁游戏，财政缺口可以通过结合较为缓和的增税和削减支出，加上可持续的经济增长来逐渐弥合。美国经济已经展现出欧洲各国政府可望不可即的活力。

The big reason for optimism is structural rather than cyclical. Short-term storms have obscured longer-term trends. These are on America’s side. There is no need to take my word for it. Ask the Chinese.

对美国乐观的主要原因是结构性，而不是周期性的。短期的风暴模糊了长期的趋势，而后者有利于美国。没必要听我的“一面之词，不妨去问中国人。

A year or so ago, the Beijing-based Chinese Institute for Contemporary International Relations made a detailed assessment of the various components of US power. The CICIR serves China’s intelligence agencies and has a reputation for unvarnished analysis. It found many more entries on the positive than on the negative side of the US balance sheet.

大约一年前，北京中国现代国际关系研究院(CICIR)对美国实力的各种构成进行了一项细致的评估。CICIR为中国的情报机构服务，以实事求是的分析而著称。该机构发现，美国的“资产负债表上，积极因素要比消极因素多得多。

Some of these strengths speak for themselves. America’s military reach will be unrivalled for decades. It has a stable political system. The country’s demographic profile is significantly better than that of any potential rival. Washington sits at the centre of the world’s most powerful alliance system. Its intelligence capabilities are unmatched. The US has huge advantages in technological prowess and intellectual resources. Around the world it exerts a strong cultural draw. It has a global outlook.

一些优势是显而易见的。几十年内，美国的军事实力都将是无可企及的。美国拥有稳定的政治体制。这个国家的人口结构特征远远好于任何潜在的竞争对手。华盛顿是世界最强大联盟体系的核心，其情报能力也是无人能及的。在技术力量和智力资源上，美国有着巨大的优势。美国文化渗透到世界各个角落。它有着全球视野。

The Chinese identified some counterpoints: an underperforming economy, rising public debt and deficits, social polarisation and political gridlock in Washington. What’s striking, though, is the qualitative nature of the pluses and minuses. The advantages are mostly permanent. The security afforded by geography is not something the US can lose. The same can be said for abundant natural resources and relative resilience against climate change. Compare this with the identified weaknesses. With a measure of political resolve, they are all more or less tractable.

中国现代国际关系研究院也找到了美国的一些弱点：经济欠佳，公共债务和赤字不断增加，社会两极分化，华盛顿陷于政治僵局。然而，令人印象深刻的是这些优势和弱点的性质。优势大部分是永久的。地理位置赋予美国的安全是不会丢失的。丰富的自然资源和对抗气候变化的相对弹性也是如此。将这些优势与找到的弱点相比，只要有一定的政治决心，这些弱点基本上都是可控的。

The implications of the exploitation of unconventional oil and gas reserves has been underestimated. Most obviously, shale oil and gas will reduce dependency on Middle East petrocarbons. Over time that will encourage a scaling back in the US commitment to the region’s security, freeing up economic and military resources for Mr Obama’s pivot to Asia. Countries such as China that are heavily dependent on imported energy will be much more vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.

美国对非传统石油和天然气的开采的影响也一直被低估。最明显的是，页岩油和页岩气将减轻美国对中东的依赖。假以时日，那将促使美国减少对该地区安全的承诺，使美国腾出经济和军事资源，推进奥巴马的转向亚洲战略。中国等严重依赖进口能源的国家在地缘政治冲击中将变得更加脆弱。

The big gain, though, comes in the form of the competitive stimulus promised by abundant cheap gas. The age of offshoring is likely to give way to the era of onshoring. The US growth rate will rise and the current account deficit will shrink.

然而，开采非传统油气资源的最大效益是，取之不尽的廉价天然气有望提振美国的经济竞争力。离岸外包的时代可能被本国生产时代取代。美国的经济增长率将提高，经常账目赤字将缩减。

Europeans are already complaining that cheap US gas is encouraging a flight of energy intensive businesses across the Atlantic. How can, say, Europe’s chemicals producers – buying expensive Russian gas – compete with US rivals guaranteed access to cut-price feedstock.

欧洲人已经在抱怨，廉价的美国天然气正在促使能源密集型的企业向大西洋彼岸转移。购买俄罗斯天然气的欧洲化工企业，怎么能够与坐拥廉价原料的美国企业竞争呢？

The US has challenges aplenty. Large chunks of its infrastructure lie somewhere between creaking and collapse. Political funding rules and gerrymandering have corrupted Washington politics. Spending on health is on an unsustainable trajectory. There are others. But everyone has problems. China faces the immense task of adapting an authoritarian political structure to the demands of a rising middle class. Europe is mired in the euro mess.

当然美国也有诸多的挑战。美国的很多基础设施处于年久失修状态，随时可能瘫痪。政治献金规则和不公正地划分选区，侵蚀了华盛顿的政治。医疗支出正处于不可持续的轨道。还有其它挑战，但各国都有自己的问题。中国面对的艰巨任务是，调整威权的政治架构，使其迎合不断壮大的中产阶层的诉求。欧洲则深陷欧元泥潭。

What’s true is that the US can no longer presume to order the world in the manner it imagined after the end of the cold war. The rise of the rest leaves no room for a hegemon. I am not sure that should be of any great concern. A self-sufficient US may well be more comfortable playing the role of a selective superpower. As I said, it’s time to buy America.

没错，美国无法像它在冷战结束后想象的那样主导世界。其他力量的崛起使得霸权没有生存空间。我不确定这是否值得担忧。自给自足的美国，或许更适合成为一个选择性的超级大国。正如我开头所说的，现在是投资美国的时候。