2020年希腊何去何从？

Anybody locked in a room for long enough with Jean-Claude Juncker will eventually capitulate. If Angela Merkel is the euro’s banker, the prime minister of Luxembourg is its enforcer. The famously relentless Mr Juncker has triumphed once again. Greece’s international creditors have finally agreed measures to reduce its debt ratio to 124 per cent of gross domestic product by 2020 and to provide more financing. Time has been bought, cans have been kicked, as usual. Once again, though, the deal has not removed the possibility of a Greek exit from the eurozone.

任何人与让-克劳德·容克(Jean-Claude Juncker)锁在一间屋子里，只要时间够长，都会向他投降。如果说安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)是欧元的银行家，那么这位卢森堡首相就是实施者了。以百折不挠著称的容克再次获胜。希腊的国际债权人终于同意通过采取一系列措施，使希腊债务与国内生产总值(GDP)的比例到2020年降至124%，并为该国提供更多融资。如同以往一样，这次又争取到了时间，换得了喘息之机。但是，这次协议还是不能排除希腊退出欧元区的可能性。

Forget the strings attached to the resumption of the bailout. The important thing is that if the debt ratio target is to be met, it will require a phenomenal economic turnround. Unfortunately, economic growth is the one thing that neither Mr Juncker nor anyone else – least of all the Greek government – has been able to deliver. Deutsche Bank estimates that the Greek economy in 2014 will be a fifth smaller than was envisaged by the International Monetary Fund in May 2010, when Athens got its first rescue package.

忘记恢复纾困所附带的条款吧。重要的是，要实现上述债务比率目标，经济必须出现明显好转。不幸的是，不管是容克还是其他任何人——遑论希腊政府——都难以推动经济增长。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)估计，到2014年希腊经济规模将比2010年5月国际货币基金组织(IMF)所预估的小五分之一，那时希腊刚刚获得第一次救助。

The inevitability of this week’s agreement is priced in – the Greek 10-year bond yield has fallen by about a third since August. Greek bank shares fell 10 per cent yesterday, however. That sector may be the biggest casualty of the train wreck. Its enforced restructuring to create three main banking groups – which should be a positive signal to investors – has instead become an indicator of increased convertibility risk: nobody wants to buy Greek assets as long as an exit from the euro is even remotely possible.

市场早就对达成本次协议的必然性做出了反应。自8月以来，希腊10年期债券收益率跌了约三分之一。昨天希腊银行股板块跌了10%。银行业可能是最大的受害者。希腊银行业被迫重组，形成了三大银行集团，这对投资者而言应该是个利好，但从中也折射出兑换性风险(convertibility risk)升高：只要希腊还有一丝退出欧元区的可能性，就没有人愿意购买希腊资产。

Arguably, the deal represents the moment at which its eurozone partners went so far down the road with Greece that it will be easier to keep going than to turn back. Even that, however, does not reduce the likelihood that creditors will have to write off more – perhaps all – of their Greek debt. Even if the 124 per cent debt ratio is achieved, only a country with a growing economy can possibly claim to be solvent at that level. Greece, alas, is very far from solvency at any level.

这次协议表明，欧元区内的伙伴们已经与希腊携手走的太远了，与其回头，不如继续走下去更加容易。然而，即便如此，债权人不得不减记更多、乃至全部希腊债务的可能性也不会因此有所降低。即便达到了124%的债务比率又如何，只有一个经济持续增长的国家才能在这种负债水平下保持偿付能力。不幸的是，不管处在什么负债水平，希腊都远没达到具备偿付能力的地步。