查韦斯癌症复发 委内瑞拉前景未明

Venezuela is embarking on a period of deep political uncertainty after President Hugo Chávez announced over the weekend that his cancer had returned and for the first time named a successor, suggesting that his disease could be terminal and his 14-year-grip on power coming to an end.

委内瑞拉正开始陷入一段充满政治不确定性的时期。此前该国总统查韦斯(Hugo Chávez)在周末期间宣布他的癌症复发，并首次宣布了一位继任者，这表明他的病可能已经到了晚期，而他14年的大权独揽也即将告终。

Mr. Chávez, in a televised address late on Saturday, said he was returning to Cuba for emergency surgery in the coming days after malignant cells had reappeared in the same pelvic region where the socialist leader has been operated on at least twice and received multiple rounds of anticancer treatment since June 2011.

查韦斯上周六晚间发表电视讲话说，未来几天他即将返回古巴接受紧急手术，原因是此前患癌的盆腔区域再次发现恶性肿瘤细胞。2011年6月以来，查韦斯已经因盆腔肿瘤而接受了至少两次手术以及多轮抗癌治疗。

He also publicly talked about the end of his rule for the first time, saying that if 'something were to occur to him,' his supporters should back Vice President Nicolas Maduro, a former bus driver and union leader who many observers say has emerged as the most capable administrator and politician of Mr. Chávez's inner circle.

他还首次公开谈论了自己的统治终结的情况，说如果自己出事，他的支持者应该支持副总统马杜罗(Nicolas Maduro)。马杜罗曾经是一名公交司机，担任过工会领袖，很多观察人士说他已成为查韦斯核心集团中最有能力的官员和政治家。

'Thankfully, this revolution doesn't just depend on one person,' Mr. Chávez said, kissing a crucifix during his emotional 30-minute address from the Miraflores presidential palace while surrounded by grim-faced aides.

查韦斯说，万幸的是，革命不仅仅是靠一个人。他在总统府发表了情绪激动的讲话，历时30分钟，期间不断亲吻一个十字架，周围是板着脸的助手。

The surprise announcement throws into doubt the future of Latin America's most prominent leader of the past 14 years and his self-styled Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela, the country with the world's largest oil reserves. The former tank commander has been the region's most outspoken critic of Washington and capitalism for years, inspiring other populist governments in places like Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina and Nicaragua.

这一出人意料的消息一经宣布，这位过去14年最出名的拉丁美洲领导人及其自称的委内瑞拉“玻利瓦尔革命(Bolivarian Revolutio)的未来前景马上被疑云笼罩。委内瑞拉是世界石油储量最大的国家。多年来，曾当过坦克指挥官的查韦斯一直是拉美最直言不讳地批评美国政府和资本主义的人士，他鼓舞了玻利维亚、厄瓜多尔、阿根廷和尼加拉瓜的其他民粹主义政府。

'It's clearly the beginning of the end politically and medically for Chávez,' said Riordan Roett, the head of Latin American studies at Baltimore's Johns Hopkins University.

美国约翰霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University)的拉丁美洲研究负责人罗伊特(Riordan Roett)说，在政治上和医学上，这显然是查韦斯走向终结之始。

Mr. Chávez, 58 years old, has never disclosed what kind of cancer he has, nor his prognosis. But experts said repeated surgeries don't augur well.

58岁的查韦斯从未透露他所患的是何种癌症以及预后情况。但专家们说，反复手术表明情况不妙。

'There's no cancer where going back for a third surgery is a good thing. There aren't very many for which you'd keep going back again and again because it usually doesn't help,' said J. Randolph Hecht, a gastroenterologist with UCLA's Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center, who isn't involved in Mr. Chávez's treatment. 'It's all very telling.'

加州大学洛杉矶分校琼森综合癌症中心(UCLA’s Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center)的胃肠病学家赫克特(J. Randolph Hecht)说，无论是哪种癌症，回去做第三次手术都不是好事情，没有多少癌症是你会一再回去做手术的，因为通常这没什么用，查韦斯现在的情况很能说明问题。赫克特没有参与查韦斯的治疗。

If Mr. Chávez is unable to continue in office or dies, Venezuela's constitution requires new elections to be called within a month. Mr. Chávez, who in October won re-election for a new six-year term, is due to be sworn in on Jan. 10.

如果查韦斯无法继续执政或去世，根据委内瑞拉宪法，应该在一个月内举行新的大眩查韦斯今年10月当选连任，任期为六年，定于1月10日宣誓就职。

The death of Mr. Chávez, the heir to Fidel Castro's revolutionary mantle in the region, would be a major blow to leftist governments in Latin America, many of which have benefited from shipments of cut-rate oil from Venezuela. Particularly vulnerable is Communist Cuba, which depends on Venezuela for billions of dollars a year in virtually free oil.

查韦斯是卡斯特罗(Fidel Castro)在拉美地区的革命衣钵传人。查韦斯如果去世，将是对拉美左派政府的重大打击，其中许多都受益于委内瑞拉的低价原油。共产党执政的古巴尤其会受到影响，古巴每年从委内瑞拉获得价值数十亿美元的几乎免费的石油。

If Mr. Chávez dies or steps down in coming months, it would likely set the stage for an election showdown between Mr. Maduro and Henrique Capriles, the opposition governor who lost to Mr. Chávez in October.

未来几个月如果查韦斯去世或下台，将可能导致马杜罗和反对派州长卡普里莱斯(Henrique Capriles)在大选中对决。卡普里莱斯在今年10月的选举中败给了查韦斯。

Mr. Capriles, however, first must face voters this Sunday in regional elections, where he is a narrow favorite to win re-election in his home state of Miranda against one of Mr. Chávez' closest associates, former Vice President Elias Jaua.

不过卡普里莱斯首先必须在本周日的地区性选举中面对选民。他在自己所在的米兰达州竞选连任，对阵查韦斯最亲密的助手之一、前副总统哈瓦(Elias Jaua)。卡普里莱斯拥有微弱优势。

While Mr. Capriles lost the October vote against Mr. Chávez by 10 percentage points, it was the opposition's best showing since Mr. Chávez won his first presidential vote in 1998. And the governor would be expected to fare better against any of Mr. Chávez's allies, all of whom are less personally popular than the president, who has cultivated a direct, almost spiritual connection with the poor.

虽然卡普里莱斯在10月份输给了查韦斯，得票率落后10个百分点，但这已经是反对党自1998年查韦斯第一次赢得总统选举以来的最佳表现。预计卡普里莱斯的选情将超过查韦斯的任何一位盟友，因为他们受欢迎的程度都赶不上查韦斯本人。查韦斯与委内瑞拉穷人之间已经形成了一种直接的、几乎是精神上的联系。

'Chávez has been a force of nature in Latin American politics, I doubt very much whether Maduro can maintain that Bolivarian charm and charisma,' said Mr. Roett.

罗伊特说，查韦斯在拉美政坛有着强大的人格魅力，我非常怀疑马杜罗能否保持他那种玻利瓦尔式的魅力和气质。

Alberto Ramos, an economist at Goldman Sachs, GS -0.54% said, 'We remain of the view that there could very well be no Chavismo without Chávez─no other senior figure has yet to show the capacity to replicate the president's charisma and unique connection with voters.'

高盛(Goldman SachsGS+0.38%)的经济学家拉莫斯(Alberto Ramos)说，我们仍然认为，没有查韦斯，很可能就没有查韦斯主义──还没有其他哪位高层人物证明他能够复制查韦斯的气质以及与选民的独特联系。

In naming a successor, Mr. Chávez lowered the chances of political chaos in case he were to die suddenly. But the possibility of a difficult and violent political transition remains high, analysts said.

通过指定继承人，查韦斯降低了他突然死去的情况下出现政治混乱的可能性。但分析人士说，委内瑞拉仍然很有可能经历一段艰难而不乏暴力的政治过渡期。

'Were President Chávez forced to leave the political scene due to health reasons, the Chavismo movement could eventually weaken, leading to a possibly noisy, and not necessarily short, political transition in Venezuela,' Mr. Ramos said.

拉莫斯说，如果查韦斯因为健康原因而被迫离开政坛，那么查韦斯主义可能最终将遭遇削弱，委内瑞拉可能因此出现一段充满混乱、且不一定短暂的政治过渡期。

Muddying the waters further is an economy that is poised for a major slowdown next year. This year, increased government spending ahead of the elections caused the economy to grow at about 5%.

乱上加乱的是，委内瑞拉经济很有可能在明年经历重大减速。今年政府在选前增加投资，带来了5%左右的经济增长。

But the spending spree has come at a cost: The gap between what Venezuela's government spends and collects in revenue is expected to close the year at about 20% of annual economic output, compared with just 5% four years ago.

但这种大规模的投资是有代价的：预计到今年年末，委内瑞拉政府的支出和收入缺口将达到年度经济产出的20%左右。四年前这个比例才5%。

Most economists have been expecting the government to carry out a major devaluation of the bolívar currency, a move that would narrow the fiscal gap by making the country's dollar oil income go much further in local currency terms. But it would also likely spark inflation due to higher import prices and hurt economic growth.

大多数经济学家一直预计政府将让本币玻利瓦尔大幅贬值，此举将使委内瑞拉的美元石油收入在换算成本币之后大大增加，从而减少财政缺口。但这样做会提高进口价格，有可能引发通货膨胀，从而损害经济增长。

The cash-strapped government has been decreasing the number of dollars it makes available through its complex currency control mechanisms, leading to a scarcity of greenbacks and a rapid depreciation of the bolívar. Dollars currently fetch more than 15 bolívars on the black market compared with the official rate of 4.3 per dollar.

捉襟见肘的委内瑞拉政府一直在减少其复杂汇率管制机制中的美元供给，这导致美元稀缺、玻利瓦尔迅速贬值。相比1美元兑换4.3玻利瓦尔的官方汇率，目前黑市上1美元可以兑换15玻利瓦尔以上。

Analysts say the government is unlikely to take a major step like devaluing the currency any time soon without Mr. Chávez's guidance, and also because officials wouldn't want to handicap the Venezuelan leader's likely successor in case new elections are called. Failing to take action will only allow the economic strains to grow.

分析人士说，由于没有查韦斯的指导，也因为官员们不希望在有可能举行新的总统选举的情况下束缚马杜拉的手脚，政府不太可能在短时间内采取贬值本币之类的重大措施。不采取行动只会放任经济压力越来越大。

If Mr. Chávez resigns before dying, he could help campaign for Mr. Maduro and play the role of 'enforcer' of unity within his political movement, which is composed of many different and many times antagonistic factions, said Moises Naim, a senior associate at Washington's Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

美国卡内基国际和平基金会(Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)高级研究员纳伊姆(Moises Naim)说，如果查韦斯死前辞职，他有可能起到给马杜拉助选的作用，并在他的政党内扮演维护团结的“强制者角色。查韦斯的政党包括很多不同的派别，它们经常相互敌视。

It was a theme Mr. Chávez stressed repeatedly on Saturday night. 'Unity! Unity! Unity!,' he said at several points of his speech.

这是查韦斯上周六夜间反复强调的一个主题。他在演讲期间数次说道：“团结！团结！团结！

Venezuelan state television on Sunday showed crowds of red-clad Chávez supporters gathering in plazas around the country chanting for the president's health to improve. One group from the western state of Apure were shown holding hands up in the air during a mass prayer gathering for the leader.

委内瑞拉国家电视台周日播出的画面上，身穿红衣的查韦斯支持者聚集在全国各地的广场，呼喊口呼祝愿查韦斯身体好转。电视画面显示，西部阿普雷州的一个团体举起双手，集体为查韦斯祈福。

In his speech, the president sounded as if he were already campaigning for Mr. Maduro, a congenial former bus driver who became a union leader, congressman, foreign minister, and most recently, vice president.

查韦斯的演讲听起来已经像是在为马杜罗助眩为人和蔼的马杜罗当过公交车司机、工会领袖、国会议员、外交部长，最近的职位是副总统。

'It's my firm opinion, as clear as the full moon, irrevocable, absolute, total─that in this scenario where new elections would be held according to the constitution─that you all pick Nicolas Maduro as president. And I ask this of you from the heart.'

查韦斯说：这是我的坚定看法，像满月一样清楚、不可更改、绝对、完全──在宪法要求举行新选举的情况之下，你们全都会选举马杜罗为总统。我发自内心地向你们请求。