风暴之后

It is easy to find bankers sighing about Chinese technology, media and telecoms deals these days. Since July, when the US Securities and Exchange Commission began an investigation into New Oriental Education and Technology Group, a New York-listed company that runs language schools in China, investors have been reluctant to touch Chinese TMT initial public offerings – a traditional driver of deals in the sector.

最近，人们容易见到银行家们对中国TMT（电信、媒体和科技）企业交易案唉声叹气。今年7月，美国证交会(SEC)启动对纽约上市公司新东方教育科技集团(New Oriental Education and Technology Group，下称新东方，该公司在中国经营语言培训学校)的调查。自那以后，投资者一直对中国TMT企业的首次公开发行(IPO)敬而远之。在过去，TMT领域的交易案主要为IPO。

The US regulator looked into whether the company should be allowed to include profits earned by the variable interest entity, or VIE, that operates the English schools. Far from being a single company’s problem, the probe poisoned an entire sector since most of China’s internet companies use VIEs. These include large, established players that have been listed in the US for many years such as Sina, the web portal company that also runs China’s largest Twitter equivalent.

美国证交会调查希望查明一个问题：新东方将通过“可变利益实体(VIE)赚得的利润计入自身财务报表是否违法。新东方采用VIE结构在中国经营语言学校。这次调查伤害了整个TMT行业，因为采用VIE结构绝非一家企业的特例，而是大多数中国互联网企业的普遍做法。这些企业包括一些在美上市多年的大型成熟企业，比如新浪(Sina)。新浪是一家门户网站，旗下的新浪微博也是中国版Twitter中经营得最大的。

Since Beijing does not allow foreign investors to control ownership in the industry, these companies are organised around VIEs – firms that use contracts to grant an offshore holding company the right to control their business but do not give the offshore investors an actual stake.

因为中国政府规定TMT行业禁止外资控股，所以上述企业都采用了VIE架构。VIE是指这样的公司，允许一家离岸上市公司通过协议控制本公司的业务，但并不授予离岸投资者实际的股份。

Last month, New Oriental shares recovered some ground after the company announced that the SEC had approved various accounting changes it made in response to the investigation.

上月，新东方股价有所回升，此前该公司宣布，它针对调查所做的一些会计变更已获得美国证交会批准。

However, the scare has almost completely halted the flow of new Chinese IPOs. China-related equity capital market deal value was down to $4.173bn as of November 19 from $9.726bn for the same period last year, according to Dealogic.

然而，经过这场惊吓，中国企业已几乎完全停止赴海外IPO。Dealogic数据显示，截至今年11月19日，与中国有关的权益资本市场交易案金额已从去年同期的97.26亿美元降至41.73亿美元。

Only three firms from China have gone public in the US this year. Vipshop, the ecommerce business, and Acquity, a digital marketing company, rose above their IPO prices but little has followed since April. YY, a social media platform company that raised $81.9m in November – the first Chinese US IPO in seven months – prompted some cautious optimism. YY priced on the low end of its range but the shares closed 7.7 per cent up on the first day of trading. However, bankers say more is needed to restore confidence.

今年以来，只有三家中国企业在美国成功上市。电子商务公司唯品会(Vipshop.com) 和数字营销公司Acquity的股价已回升至其IPO价格之上，但自今年4月以来鲜有上涨。社交媒体平台公司欢聚时代(YY)今年11月份上市融资8190万美元，成为7个月以来首家在美IPO的中国企业，令市场在保持谨慎的同时也变得比较乐观。欢聚时代的发行价接近其定价区间底端，但上市当天股价收涨7.7%。然而，银行家们表示，还要付出更多努力才能恢复市场信心。

“The pendulum has swung too far, but although ... shock over the New Oriental case has subsided, it will take much more to get IPOs – the traditional main driver of deals in the TMT sector – going again, says one Hong Kong banker. “First, the scepticism over governance and regulatory issues needs to wash off. Then we need to see advertising recover, which has been a bit sluggish ... And eventually, we need to start seeing deals that work – most deals of the past two years are now trading below their IPO price.

“局势已经变化了太多，尽管...新东方调查事件引发的震荡已经平息，但要想让中国企业恢复大批赴美IPO还有许多工作要做。IPO过去一直是TMT领域交易案的主要来源。一位香港银行家表示，“首先，必须打消市场对于治理和监管问题的疑虑。其次，我们需要看到广告业恢复活力，这个行业近来不太景气...最后，我们需要看到一些成功的交易案产生——过去两年里上市交易的大部分股票，如今股价都低于当初的IPO价格。

Observers believe that the next meaningful Chinese technology IPO could well come from Alibaba Group, the company that runs China’s largest ecommerce empire and was responsible for a big chunk of deal volume this year with the taking-private of Alibaba.com, the originally Hong Kong-listed subsidiary that operates the company’s business-to-business online marketplace.

观察人士相信，下一个重量级中国科技企业IPO案例很可能来自阿里巴巴集团(Alibaba Group)。该集团经营着中国最大的电子商务帝国，其将阿里巴巴(Alibaba.com)私有化的那笔交易在今年的交易案总额中占据很大比重。阿里巴巴原本是阿里巴巴集团在香港上市的子公司，负责集团的企业对企业(B2B)在线销售市场业务。

“I would expect the Alibaba Group IPO to happen in mid-2013, says the head of technology banking for Greater China at a US bank. China’s largest online retailer, 360buy, plans a US listing, but is unlikely to beat Alibaba to its move.

一家美国银行的大中华区科技银行业主管表示：“我预计阿里巴巴集团将在2013年中期实现IPO。中国最大的在线零售商京东(360buy)正在计划赴美上市，但该公司的上市时间不大可能抢在阿里巴巴前面。

And yet, the ecommerce sector has already kept deals flowing. Alibaba raised $7.6bn in debt and equity in September in what the company said was the largest-yet private financing for a Chinese pre-IPO company from a group of Chinese and international investors. The funds are being used to help the group unwind its complicated relationship with Yahoo, the US internet company that was once one of its largest shareholders. Meanwhile 360buy is also in the middle of another round of fundraising.

不过，电子商务业的交易案一直不断。今年9月，阿里巴巴通过出售股权和债权融资76亿美元，并称这创下了中国企业在IPO之前向国内外投资者私募融资的最大金额。这些资金将用于帮助阿里巴巴理清与美国互联网企业雅虎(Yahoo)之间的复杂关系。雅虎曾是阿里巴巴的大股东之一。与此同时，京东目前也在进行另一轮融资。

“The intense competition among Chinese ecommerce companies for market share, which requires a lot of cash, is another trend driving China TMT deals, says Brian Gu, head of China corporate finance and M and A at JPMorgan.

摩根大通(JPMorgan)中国区企业融资与并购(M and A)主管顾宏地(Brian Gu)表示：“中国电商企业之间为争抢市场份额展开了激烈的竞争，需要巨额的资金支持，这是推动中国TMT企业积极进行交易的另一个趋势。

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On the mergers and acquisitions front, domestic deal value has surged to $28.57bn this year to date, from $14.2bn for the same period in 2011, according to Dealogic, as consolidation in sectors such as software services and outsourcing is under way. But outbound deals have slowed to $1.52bn from $1.96bn last year in a sign that Chinese companies “going out is still focused mainly on industries such as energy and resources.

Dealogic数据显示，随着软件服务与外包等行业开始整合，今年迄今国内并购领域的交易额已从去年同期的142亿美元，激增至285.7亿美元。但是，对外并购交易额已从去年的19.6亿美元降至今年的15.2亿美元，表明中国企业的“走出去活动仍然主要集中在能源和资源等领域。

Some bankers believe leading Chinese internet firms such as Tencent, which owns the world’s largest instant-messaging service by users, and Baidu, which runs China’s largest online search engine, will start making bigger acquisitions abroad as they try to penetrate foreign markets.

一些银行家相信，随着腾讯(Tencent)和百度(Baidu)等中国主要互联网企业试图进军海外市场，这些企业将开始在海外开展更大规模的收购活动。腾讯旗下有全球使用人数最多的即时通讯工具，百度则是中国最大的在线搜索引擎。

“You already have major companies that have dominated their market in China and find it difficult to further increase their market share, says one technology banker.

一位从事高科技行业业务的银行家表示：“我们发现，一些大企业已在中国市场占据了主导地位，但它们在中国国内的市场份额很难进一步扩大。

“We are going to see acquisitions of knowhow in developed countries, and of market share in developing countries with large populations.

“未来会有一些企业为了获取技术而在发达国家展开收购，以及为了扩大市场份额而在人口众多的发展中国家发起收购。

But none of these potential deals is likely to reach the size of several billions of dollars. “The TMT sector is unlikely to be the source of a huge amount of outbound M and A, says Mr Gu.

但这些潜在交易均难以达到数十亿美元的规模。顾宏地说：“TMT行业不太可能开展大规模海外并购。

China’s Lenovo, the world’s second-largest PC company, which acquired a stake in Japanese company NEC’s PC business last year and announced a deal for Brazilian electronics maker Digibras in September, is expected to produce more deals – most likely a bid for a commercial PC target to boost its market share in Europe.

全球第二大个人电脑公司、中国企业联想(Lenovo)曾在去年收购日本电气(NEC)个人电脑业务部分股份，并在今年9月宣布与巴西电子产品制造商Digibras达成一笔交易。预计联想还将开展更多交易，其中最有可能的是对一家商用个人电脑公司发起收购，以提高其在欧洲的市场份额。

Another potential source of big outbound deals could be telecoms and telecoms equipment, but this has become more complicated since a US congressional panel called for the exclusion of Chinese networking gear companies from the US market. “All these assets in the industry, like Motorola, BlackBerry or 3Com, may become available to other bidders but they will remain off limits for Huawei, says one banker.

电信与电信设备业是另一个可能发生大规模海外并购交易的行业，但自从美国国会一个专门委员会呼吁将中国网络设备公司排除出美国市场之后，情况变得复杂了。一位银行家说：“该行业的所有公司，如摩托罗拉(Motorola)、黑莓(BlackBerry)或3Com，其资产都可能被其他竞购者收购，但华为仍将被排除在外。

A public listing allowing Huawei Technologies to lay its shareholder structure out in the open, thus countering suspicions that it might be controlled by the Chinese government or military, is not seen as an option. “Huawei has no plans to go public, says Scott Sykes, company spokesman, trying to lay to rest persistent rumours.

如果华为技术有限公司(Huawei Technologies)上市，它将公开披露股权结构，消除人们对该公司可能受到中国政府或军方控制的怀疑。但上市目前不在公司的考虑范围之内。各种谣言不绝于耳，为了平息谣言，华为发言人斯科特·赛克斯(Scott Sykes)说：“华为没有上市计划。

Bankers who have looked at the company say its complex shareholding history and management’s unwillingness to unravel it in detail makes an IPO practically impossible.

了解过华为情况的银行家们表示，公司股权变化历史复杂，管理层也不愿详细说明这些情况，因此IPO基本上不可能。

“In addition, the strong political suspicions the company faces in a market as vital as the US mean this would be a very hard sell to investors, says a technology head of a western bank.

一家西方银行的技术业务主管表示：“此外，在一个像美国这样的关键市场中遭遇政治方面的强烈质疑，意味着IPO可能很难吸引投资者。

The one area that is full of promise, however, is taking-private TMT deals. Jason Jiang, chairman of outdoor advertiser Focus Media, offered in August together with Carlyle and a number of other private equity firms to buy out the company’s US-listed holding in what is set to become China’s largest-yet leveraged buyout deal.

然而，TMT私有化交易却前景一片大好。今年8月，户外广告商分众传媒(Focus Media)董事长江南春(Jason Jiang)与凯雷(Carlyle)等多家私人股权公司共同发起对分众传媒在美上市股票的回购，预计这将成为中国迄今为止规模最大的一笔杠杆收购。

“There are more such take-private deals to come, says Mr Gu. “The easy pickings may be over, but you can still draw up a decent list of candidates for such deals, including billion-plus market cap companies.

“未来还将出现更多此类私有化交易，顾宏地说，“容易做的交易可能已经没有了，但可能进行私有化交易的候选企业名单仍然不短，其中包括一些市值逾十亿美元的企业。