国际英语资讯:News Analysis: Business, consumer confidence improves in Italy, but economy remains moribund

ROME, Aug. 6 -- The outlook for Italy's economy is improving, according to a survey of companies and consumers. But economists say economic indicators do not give much of a clue as to why their optimism is on the rise.

Data released Monday by Italy's National Statistics Institute showed that both business and consumer confidence ticked higher in July. It is the first time both indicators improved during the same month in more than a year, and is a welcome dose of good news for an economy that has seen broadly flat growth for the past five economic quarters.

Surveys of business and consumer confidence are considered leading indicators, meaning they can start showing changes in the economy -- whether positive or negative -- before they are revealed by other economic indicators.

The new data "suggested the Italian economy will improve marginally in the coming months," the institute said in the bulletin released Monday.

That could be good news for the government of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, which will have to start negotiations on the country's 2020 budget in September. If improved confidence from businesses and consumers translates into an uptick in economic growth, it could make it easier for the government to keep the budget deficit within limits prescribed by the European Commission.

But economists said it is too early to start making assumptions based on the increased optimism.

"These business and consumer confidence figures surprised me when they first came out, but they still don't do anything to make me want to change my mind regarding the country's economic prospects," Lucio Poma, a professor of applied economics at the University of Ferrara, told Xinhua.

Poma said that economic growth is predicted to remain slow through the end of the year, and that most of the most important macroeconomic indicators tell a similar story.

"If business and consumer confidence are the main reasons to be more optimistic about the economy then I will wait a few months to see if the trend started in July continues," he noted.

The only positive indicator besides business and consumer confidence involved the country's unemployment figures, which have stubbornly remained above 10 percent in recent months. But the latest figures, for June, showed the figure dipped to 9.7 percent, its lowest level in seven years.

But according to Giampaolo Galli, an economist and vice director of the Italian Observatory of Public Accounts, even that figure is less optimistic than it appears at first glance.

"The economy added enough new jobs to drop the unemployment figures by 0.5 percent," Galli said in an interview. "But the only demographic group to see its situation improve were workers aged 50 or above. Every other age group saw the employment situation worsen for them."

Like Poma, Galli said there was too little information to determine whether improving confidence in the economy was the start of a trend.

"Business or consumer confidence on their own don't mean much," Galli said, adding "Let's wait and see if that starts to make a difference with economic growth."