泰国反政府集会凸显总理英拉面临的挑战

An antigovernment rally in Bangkok fizzled under tropical downpours Saturday, but the stench of tear gas wafting through the streets was a jarring reminder of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's struggle to escape the shadow of one of Asia's most divisive politicians: her older brother Thaksin Shinawatra, ousted as prime minister in a 2006 coup.

上周六泰国首都曼谷的一场反政府集会因为热带暴雨而以失败告终。但曼谷主要街道弥漫的刺鼻催泪瓦斯味道则在地提醒人们：泰国现任总理英拉·钦那瓦(Yingluck Shinawatra)难以走出亚洲一位最受争议政治人物的阴影，此人就是她的哥哥他信·钦那瓦(Thaksin Shinawatra)。在2006年的一场政变中，时任泰国总理的他信被推翻。

Thai police had predicted that tens of thousands of people would take to the streets to protest what the demonstrators say is the continuing influence of Mr. Thaksin, a day ahead of the start of a no-confidence debate in the country's Parliament. With Ms. Yingluck expected to win the no-confidence motion easily, thanks to her party's holding nearly 300 of the lower house's 500 seats, attention focused on Saturday's protest.

泰国警方此前曾预言，数万人将走上街头抗议他们所说的“他信的持续影响。集会在泰国议会就一项不信任案举行辩论前一天进行。由于英拉领导的政党在议会下院500个席位中占有近300个议席，英拉预计将能轻松赢得这场不信任案辩论。外界关注的焦点因此放到了上周六的抗议活动上。

In one incident early Saturday, riot police lobbed tear gas into a crowd of demonstrators attempting to bypass designated entry points and push through police lines into a large plaza where thousands of other protesters had gathered. Police said they had detained 138 people, 137 of whom have since been released, while health officials said 61 people were injured in the clashes.

在上周六早些时候的一场对峙中，防暴警察向试图绕过指定入口并突破警戒线进入一个大型广场的示威人群发射了催泪瓦斯。数千名抗议者此之前已经聚集在这个广场上。警方表示，他们已经拘留了138人，其中137人随后被释放。而卫生部门官员说，61人在冲突中受伤。

Ms. Yingluck stoked widespread concern about a fresh period of turmoil in one of Southeast Asia's linchpin economies by calling the rally a national-security issue and invoking security laws to enable the army to help maintain law and order.

英拉称这场反政府集会事关国家安全，并称泰国的国家安全法规使得军队能够出面帮助维持法律和秩序。英拉此言让外界普遍担心泰国这个东南亚的重要经济体可能进入一个新的动荡期。

Afternoon rain-bursts were thought to have kept down attendance at the rally. Participants, estimated to number up to 15,000, were easily outmaneuvered by police, prompting protest organizer Boonlert Kaewprasit, a retired general, to cancel the demonstration and apologize to his followers for the low turnout.

上周六下午的一场暴雨被认为是造成集会出席人数减少的原因。在双方的对峙中警方轻松取得了优势。这导致集会组织者、退役将军汶勒(Boonlert Kaewprasit)取消了抗议活动，并就参加人数较低向他的追随者道歉。据估计最多有1.5万人参加了这场集会。

'Gen. Boonlert is gone. For me it is over,' he told reporters, adding that he was worried, too, for the safety of demonstrators.

汶勒对记者说，汶勒将军不在了，在我看来他已经不复存在。他还说自己为抗议者的安全感到担忧。

In many ways, Saturday's protest, while smaller than expected, was a throwback to a series of demonstrations that began in 2005, analysts say. Back then, hordes of royalist demonstrators amassed in Bangkok to protest Mr. Thaksin and his brash, almost presidential style of government. Next year came the coup and two years after that more protests by royalists─who this time seized control of Bangkok's two international airports, helping bring down another pro-Thaksin administration. In 2010, with a military-backed government in place, clashes between Thaksin supporters and security forces in Bangkok claimed more than 90 lives.

分析人士说，从很多方面看，上周六的抗议活动尽管规模小于预期，但却和始于2005年的一系列抗议活动类似。当时，成群的保皇派示威者聚集在曼谷，以抗议他信和他领导的傲慢的、几乎带有总统作风的政府。2006年发生了政变，两年后保皇派成员发起了更多抗议活动。这一次他们控制了曼谷的两个国际机场，帮助推翻了另一个亲他信政府。2010年一个军方支持的政府执掌泰国政权时，他信的支持者和安全部队在曼谷爆发的多场冲突导致90多人身亡。

When Ms. Yingluck was elected in a landslide in July 2011, there began a rapprochement between the populist Thaksin camp and Thailand's conservative military and civil service, helped along this year by the country's relatively strong economic performance.

2011年7月英拉高票当选泰国总理后，秉持民粹主义理念的他信阵营和泰国保守的军方及文职政府之间的关系开始改善，今年以来泰国相对强劲的经济表现也有助于双方关系的改善。

In recent months Ms. Yingluck, 45 years old, has also taken on a stronger presence on the regional and world stage. Last weekend, U.S. President Barack Obama, on a visit to Bangkok, congratulated her for her election win and praised her restoring some stability to Thailand's troubled democracy. A few days later, Ms. Yingluck hosted Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in a further indication of Thailand's regional significance as Beijing and Washington vie for influence in Southeast Asia.

近几个月来，现年45岁的英拉越来越频发地出现在地区和国际舞台上。上周末，美国总统奥巴马(Barack Obama)在访问曼谷时祝贺英拉竞选成功，并称赞她在一定程度上令泰国陷入困境的民主恢复了稳定。几天后，英拉又接待了中国总理温家宝。时值中美争夺在东南亚的影响力之际，这进一步凸显了泰国在这一地区的重要性。

'Mr. Obama's all-American call for democratic strengthening in Thailand plays right into Ms. Yingluck's hands,' Andrew Walker at the Australian National University wrote in a commentary earlier this week. 'It draws attention to the stability of Ms. Yingluck's government and it adds to her domestic and international legitimacy.'

澳大利亚国立大学(Australian National University)的沃克(Andrew Walker)本周早些时候在一篇评论文章中写道，奥巴马呼吁泰国加强民主的这种纯美式做法恰好给英拉帮了个忙。这让外界的注意力集中到英拉政府的稳定性上来，并增加了英拉在国内和国际上的合法性。

Saturday's demonstration, though, shows how difficult it is for Ms. Yingluck to escape claims that Mr. Thaksin is the country's de facto leader, running the country from his self-imposed exile in Dubai. Ms. Yingluck acknowledges that she is in regularly contact with her brother─but asserts that she makes government decisions and she runs Thailand's weekly cabinet meetings.

上周六的抗议活动表明，英拉想要回避“他信是泰国实际领导者的说法有多么的困难。这种说法认为，自我放逐的他信在迪拜遥控着泰国。英拉承认她定期同他信联系，但她声称政府决策都是她做出的，泰国每周的内阁会议是她在主持。