花旗抵押贷款到底价值几何？

Once again, Citigroup is showing why investors have lingering doubts over the value banks place on their assets.

花旗集团(Citigroup)再次显示出，为何投资者就银行对其资产的估值有着挥之不去的疑虑。

Citi is looking to shed about $171 billion in crisis-era assets it still holds, equal to about 9% of its balance sheet. Of these, about $95 billion are North American mortgages. The problem: Citi and markets have very different views of what these mortgages are worth.

花旗希望剥离金融危机时代遗留、现仍持有的约1,710亿美元资产，规模相当于该集团资产负债表的9%，其中约950亿美元是北美地区的抵押贷款。现在的问题是，花旗与市场就这些抵押贷款价值几何看法迥异。

Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference last week, Citi finance chief John Gerspach encapsulated the dilemma. Because the mortgages are loans, not securities, they are held at face value with a loan-loss reserve created against them. In this case, it is about $8.5 billion.

花旗首席财务长戈斯帕奇(John Gerspach)上周在高盛金融服务业大会(Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference)上发言时简要概述了这个困境。因为抵押贷款属于贷款范畴，不是证券，所以以面值持有，且还预留了贷款损失准备金以防万一。花旗的贷款损失准备金约为85亿美元。

Mr. Gerspach said the bank remains 'very comfortable with the level of reserves we have allocated to these mortgages.' Yet, he added that if the bank were to try to sell a sizable portion of them, it would require 'a substantial write-down' in their value.

戈斯帕奇说，花旗对于该行分配给这些抵押贷款的准备金水平仍十分满意。不过他也说，如果花旗试图出售相当比例的抵押贷款，那么这些贷款的估值须大幅减记。

That is part of what is preventing large-scale sales. Yet the assets weigh on Citi's stock, which trades at just 60% of book value.

这是花旗为防止大规模资产出售而采取的行动的一部分，但这些资产会对花旗股票产生不利影响。花旗股票目前的交易价格仅为账面净值的60%。

Citi isn't alone in such value conundrums. In its most recent financial stability report, for example, the Bank of England questioned whether U.K. bank assets were overvalued because reserves for loan losses weren't adequate. Doubts about that, it added, were likely in part responsible for big U.K. banks trading at about three-quarters of book value.

花旗并非唯一一个面临资产估值问题的银行。举例来说，英国央行(Bank of England)就在最新发布的金融稳定报告中提出质疑，英国的银行资产是否因贷款损失准备金不足而被高估。英国央行还说，有关这方面的疑虑可能也是英国大型银行股票交易价格约为其账面净值四分之三的原因之一。

For Citi's investors, though, the issue is particularly vexing. Not only are they eager to see the bank shed the assets, which tie up capital and depress return. But the bank also doesn't have the greatest track record when it comes to valuing some assets.

不过对于花旗的投资者而言，这个问题尤其令人烦恼。这不仅仅是因为他们急于看到花旗剥离那些束缚资本且压低回报的资产，而且因为在评估部分资产方面，花旗以往的表现并不出众。

During the financial crisis, it insisted its problems were due to liquidity issues in the market, not looming losses in some of its holdings. Yet it was ultimately forced to take about $52 billion in bailout money.

金融危机期间，花旗坚持认为其问题源于市场流动性，而非该银行持有的部分资产出现了迫在眉睫的损失。不过，花旗最终还是被迫接受了约520亿美元的救助资金。

Until recently, Citi valued a brokerage joint venture with Morgan Stanley MS +1.37% at more than $20 billion. Then, in the third quarter it agreed to a value that was about $10 billion less, taking a $4.9 billion pretax loss in the process.

直到前不久，花旗还认为它与摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)成立的一家经纪合资公司的估值超过200亿美元。今年第三季度，花旗承认该公司估值应该降低大约100亿美元，同时接受了在此过程中49亿美元的税前损失。

Granted, the problem Citi faces with these assets, in what it calls Citi Holdings, also relates to their sheer size. Mr. Gerspach noted that the lower market prices the mortgages would likely fetch would be 'driven by the cost of financing, a liquidity discount…, and a buyer's desired equity returns.'

当然，这些资产（即“花旗控股部门）给花旗带来的问题还与其绝对规模有关。戈斯帕奇指出，这些抵押贷款可能面临较低的市场价，而该市场价将受到融资成本、流动性折价……和买方期望的股本回报率等因素推动。

And the bank can hold on to the mortgages, as it has been doing, and hope that the market eventually comes its way or that the loans pay down.

花旗也可以像过去那样继续持有这些抵押贷款，寄希望于市场最终承认自己的看法或这些贷款终被偿还。

There is a cost for waiting, though. In a recent report, Goldman analyst Richard Ramsden estimated that spinning off the mortgage assets could in theory boost Citi's returns by three percentage points.

但等待是有成本的。高盛分析师拉姆斯丹(Richard Ramsden)在近期一份报告里估计，剥离抵押贷款资产从理论上来说或许可以让花旗的资产回报率提高三个百分点。

So these assets are an albatross around Citi's neck. And investors eyeing Citi likely are marking down their value below what the bank carries them at. That feeds into the bank's valuation discount.

因此，这些资产是套在花旗头上的“紧箍咒。关注花旗的投资者眼下可能认为这些资产的估值低于花旗给出的估值，而这造成花旗的实际估值较低。

Granted, the market may be wrong about the assets' value and Citi, right. But as banks have learned the past few years, the market has the last word on such matters.

当然，市场对于花旗资产的估值可能是错的，花旗的估值也可能是对的。但正如银行在过去几年所了解到的，市场对于这类事情有着最后的决定权。