美国不会跌落财政悬崖

Last Thursday saw the start of negotiations in Washington on a deficit-reduction agreement to be passed by year-end. If struck, a deal would avert the much-feared fiscal cliff – $500bn in annual tax increases and spending cuts, which is set to begin in four weeks. Despite the immediacy of this threat, there is widespread fear that the negotiations may fail, triggering this huge fiscal contraction and pushing the fragile US economy back into recession.

近来，华盛顿开始了一系列关于削减赤字的谈判，计划在年底之前达成协议。如果成功达成，协议将避免美国如许多人担忧的那样跌落“财政悬崖。如不采取任何行动，美国将在四周以后跌落“财政悬崖——每年5000亿美元的增税和减支。尽管风险迫在眉睫，但人们还是普遍担忧协商无果，从而引发大规模财政收缩，令脆弱的美国经济再次陷入衰退。

Fortunately this fear is misplaced because America will not go over the fiscal cliff and stay there. However bumpy the talks, a deficit agreement will probably emerge just before or a week or two after the year-end deadline. The agreement will reduce deficits without injuring economic growth. And it will boost consumer and business confidence.

幸运的是，这种担忧是多余的，因为美国不会就这样跌落悬崖、再也爬不起来。不论谈判遇到多少波折，协议很有可能赶在年底期限到来之前或年后一两周内达成。协议将在不损害经济增长的情况下降低赤字。同时，协议也将提振消费者和企业的信心。

Why this relative optimism? First, in the presidential election that just ended, taxes were debated every day. Not only did President Barack Obama win the election decisively but exit polls indicated 70 per cent support for his position on taxes, namely that high earners should pay more, but the middle class should not. In other words, the people have spoken on this issue and members of Congress cannot ignore that without jeopardising their own positions.

为什么会有这种相对乐观的判断呢？第一，在刚刚结束的总统大选中，每天的辩论都少不了税收问题。巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)不仅以绝对优势赢得了大选，投票后民调也显示，70%的人是因为奥巴马在税收上的立场而支持他的。奥巴马的立场就是，应该对高收入人群增税，而不应对中产阶层增税。换句话说，民众已经在这个问题上表达了自己的心声，国会不能忽视民意，否则就会危及自身。

Second, capital markets will rebel against stalemate and recession risk. They are the most powerful force on earth, repeatedly forcing global outcomes that normal political processes cannot. The October 2008 congressional vote on the troubled asset relief programme legislation is particularly instructive. At that time, Lehman Brothers had collapsed, credit markets were frozen and fear reigned. The Bush administration proposed Tarp, and the Senate voted to establish it. But the House voted No. Stock prices immediately fell 800 points and, within 48 hours, the House reversed its position. Why? Because constituents were terrified.

第二，资本市场也会反对政界冒险在这个问题上陷入僵局、导致经济衰退。资本市场是全世界最强大的力量，曾一再促使全球局势出现自己希望的转机，这些结果是正常的政治进程所无法实现的。2008年10月，国会通过有关问题资产救助计划的法案，那件事就足以说明这一点。那个时候，雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)已经破产，信贷市场已冻结，恐慌情绪蔓延。小布什政府提出“问题资产救助计划(TARP)，该计划在参议院获得通过，但在众议院遭到否决。计划被众议院否决后，股市应声下跌800点，48小时之内，众议院就重新进行了投票，通过了该计划。为什么？因为没人敢惊吓选民。

Markets are already preoccupied by the fiscal cliff. If negotiations appear stuck, share prices will fall as year end approaches. Then, if the deadline passes without agreement, they will probably plummet. Under pressure, as in 2008, Washington will probably produce a deficit agreement. At worst, Congress and the president would extend the middle income tax cuts on which they agree. There will be no direct blow to the economy.

“财政悬崖的阴影已经笼罩了市常如果谈判陷入僵局，股价将随年底的临近而下跌。如果截止日期过去、而协议依然未能达成，股价很可能暴跌。与2008年的情况类似，这种压力可能会迫使华盛顿达成减赤协议。至少，国会和总统可能会同意延长针对中等收入者的减税政策，在这一点上他们是一致的。因此，将不会出现对经济造成直接冲击的结果。

Third, the US business community is now pushing for an agreement. Since election day, Mr Obama has spent considerable, productive time with business leaders on this. Most of them will accept moderately higher tax rates, provided that spending cuts and the total savings package are big enough. This flexible approach from business weakens the anti-tax forces in Congress, who are the biggest obstacle to an agreement.

第三，美国商界如今也在敦促政界达成协议。自第二次当选总统以来，奥巴马就与商界领袖在这个问题上进行了大量颇有成效的探讨。大多数商界领袖都愿意接受适当的增税，只要减支幅度够大、开支节省方案规模够大。商界这种灵活的立场削弱了国会中反对增税的力量，这股力量正是达成协议的最大障碍。

A successful agreement would embody three principles; it will be large enough to stabilise the debt to gross domestic product ratio, meaning about $4.5tn in savings over 10 years; it will include a balance of spending cuts and revenue raising measures; and it will be divided into two phases because, with just four weeks left, there isn’t time to legislate the entire package.

一项成功的协议应体现三个原则：协议规模足够大，从而能够稳定债务占国内生产总值的比例，也就是说在十年内要削减4.5万亿美元的开支；协议要平衡削减开支和增加财政收入两方面的措施；协议将分成两个部分，因为只剩下四周时间，来不及就整个方案立法。

The negotiators already know the main elements of an agreement. Spending cuts should exceed the amount of new revenues. That should not be hard because $2tn of cuts are already agreed; $1.2tn in reduced discretionary spending was enacted last year and an additional $800bn will be realised by ending the Iraq and Afghanistan deployments. But it is also time to restrain entitlement spending, which has been soaring. Steps such as means testing Medicare, modernising cost of living adjustment formulas and others could save another $600bn. When the resultant interest savings are added in, total spending is reduced by $3.2tn over 10 years.

参与协商的人已经清楚协议中的要点。支出削减应该超过新增财政收入。这一点不难做到，因为有两万亿美元的减支已获各方同意。去年已经通过自主性减支1.2万亿美元，从伊拉克和阿富汗撤兵将节省8000亿美元开支。但现在还需要限制之前飙升的福利支出。采取通过资产测查确定哪些人可以享受“联邦医疗保险计划(Medicare)、更新生活成本调整公式(cost of living adjustment formula)等措施，可能还能节省6000亿美元开支。再加上由此节省的利息，10年内将减少支出3.2万亿美元。

It is also important to include a growth initiative. The 2010 payroll tax cut and bonus depreciation should be extended together with emergency unemployment insurance and other expiring provisions. These would cost $200bn annually, reducing the net spending cuts to $3tn.

协议中纳入积极增长也非常重要。2010年工资税优惠和奖金应税额折减，应该与紧急失业保险及其他即将到期的措施一起延期。延期的成本可能为每年2000亿美元，将净支出削减额减至3万亿美元。

That leaves at least $1.5tn of revenue increases to truly solve the debt problem. Two-thirds of that can be achieved by returning to the, slightly higher, Clinton-era tax rates on income and capital for high earners. Those rates coincided with an economic boom in the 1990s. Our income tax system is now less progressive than ever and a big majority favours such a move. Then, to reach the revenue target, the value of most tax deductions could be capped at about 20 per cent, removing the advantage high earners enjoy, where the value of deductions equals their higher rate of tax.

到这里，要真正解决债务问题，至少还要增加1.5万亿美元的财政收入。通过重新实行克林顿时期对高收入人群征收的较高的所得税率和资本税率，可以完成财政增收目标的三分之二。那一时期正好是上世纪九十年代的经济繁荣期。目前所得税累进性是美国历史上最差的时候，因此绝大多数人都赞成回归克林顿时期的做法。那么，为了完成财政收入目标，可以对大多数应税收益额减免设定20%的上限，这样就消除了高收入人群享有的优势，因为其享受的应税收益额减免与缴纳的较高税率相抵。

This overall package would fix the debt problem, support the economy and protect middle-income Americans while avoiding the fiscal cliff. It would also spur business investment and hiring and pave the way for eventual positive growth surprises. That’s why these negotiations must succeed.

这一揽子方案或将解决债务问题、支持经济、保护美国中等收入人群，并且避免美国跌落“财政悬崖。同时，这也将刺激企业扩大投资、招聘员工，从而推动经济增长最终取得骄人的成绩。因此，文章开头所述的谈判必须成功。

The writer, who served as US deputy Treasury secretary from 1993-94, founded and chairs Evercore Partners

本文作者是Evercore Partners创始人和董事长，曾于1993至1994年担任美国财政部副部长。