传统玩具受到冷落

Step aside Barbie. The hottest gift for children this Christmas is not going to be a doll or a toy truck. It is a tablet.

靠边站，芭比(Barbie)。今年圣诞节最受孩子们欢迎的礼物将不是娃娃或玩具卡车，而是平板电脑。

Whether a new Kindle Fire, or a hand-me-down iPad, analysts predict 2012 will be the year children as young as three will unwrap tablets at trendsetting rates. And that has toymakers scrambling to stay relevant.

分析师们预测，就连3岁大的孩子也将收到平板电脑作为礼物——不论是一台崭新的Kindle Fire、还是一台半新的iPad——从2012年开始，这将成为一种趋势。这种趋势令玩具制造商纷纷采取紧急措施，避免被淘汰的命运。

“The top two guys, Mattel and Hasbro, they are terrified, said Sean McGowan, managing director of equity research at Needham and Company, an investment banking firm.

投行Needham and Company的董事总经理肖恩·麦高恩(Sean McGowan)表示：“最大的两家，美泰(Mattel)和孩之宝(Hasbro)，他们都吓坏了。

Toy companies have seen the trend coming, but have struggled to adapt.

玩具公司已经看到了未来的趋势，但还没有找到应对的良方。

At Mattel, the largest toymaker by revenues, the top-selling product this year is a plastic mobile phone case, said a person familiar with the company’s sales, raising concern about the fate of Barbie dolls and Hot Wheels cars.

美泰是全球最大的玩具制造商（以营收计）。熟悉该公司销售情况的人士表示，美泰今年销量最高的产品是塑料手机壳。这令人不能不担忧芭比娃娃和风火轮(Hot Wheels)玩具车的命运。

Some analysts are lowering forecasts for fourth-quarter toy sales, estimated at $1.41bn for Hasbro and $2.29bn for Mattel, after sales in the first three quarters of the year declined compared with the year before.

由于今年头三季度的销售额都出现同比下跌，一些分析师正调低对今年第四季度玩具销售额的预测数字。他们预测，孩之宝第四季度销售额将为14.1亿美元，美泰将为22.9亿美元。

The main danger for toy and board game makers is not just that their physical products are being displaced, but that the amount of time children are spending with technology devices has rocketed.

玩具和桌游制造商面临的主要危机不仅是其实物产品被取代，还包括孩子们花在高科技设备上的时间大幅增加。

Now that parents are likely to upgrade their own devices to the new Apple iPad mini or other gadgets released for Christmas, many will be more than willing to pass their old one on to their children.

如今，父母们可能会在圣诞之际将自己的设备升级为新的苹果(Apple) iPad mini或其他为圣诞而推出的产品。许多父母会很乐意将自己淘汰下来的旧设备送给孩子。

“Everyone I know who has a kid under 10 has a tablet in the house. And that tablet is the babysitter, said Dylan Collins, an investor in Fight My Monster, an online gaming company. Up against tech groups that make such engaging entertainment, toymakers cannot compete, Mr McGowan said.

在线游戏公司Fight My Monster投资人迪伦·科林斯(Dylan Collins)说：“我认识的人里面，所有家里有10岁以下孩子的都有一台平板电脑。平板电脑也是他们的保姆。麦高恩说，高科技公司制造的游戏如此吸引人，玩具制造商是无法与之竞争的。

Mattel almost went bankrupt in the 1980s from its attempt to move into video games, he said. Hasbro, maker of board games such as Monopoly and Scrabble, has been outpaced on several fronts by Zynga, the social gaming company built on Facebook.

科林斯说，美泰上世纪80年代试图进军视频游戏，结果几乎破产。地产大亨(Monopoly)、拼字游戏Scrabble等桌游的制造商孩之宝，则在多个方面被构建于Facebook的社交游戏公司Zynga赶超。

“Clearly, young people have an aptitude for and expectation with digital platforms that we need to recognise, said John Frascotti, chief marketing officer for Hasbro.

孩之宝首席营销官约翰·弗拉斯科蒂(John Frascotti)说：“显然，年轻人对数字平台有一种自然的亲近和向往，这是我们必须承认的。