蒙古国政局不稳 拖累新发债券行情

Mongolia is flush with fresh cash from a massive international bond sale, but political turmoil in the capital is threatening to overshadow the achievement.

蒙古国从一场大规模的国际债券发行中获得了大量资金，但首都乌兰巴托动荡的政治局势却可能令这一成果黯然失色。

News that a minority party in Mongolia's parliament's governing coalition could leave the government sent the bonds sharply lower on their first day of trading Wednesday.

有消息称蒙古国议会执政联盟中的少数党可能退出政府，受此消息拖累，周三上述债券在交易首日即大幅下跌。

The Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party, a minority member of the governing coalition, told local media on Tuesday that it is asking its members to withdraw from the government, possibly imperiling the ruling majority.

蒙古人民革命党(Mongolian People's Revolutionary Party)是执政联盟中的一个小党。该党周二对蒙古国当地媒体说，它将要求其成员退出政府，此举可能危及执政联盟的议会多数党地位。

The party is protesting the imprisonment of a former president of Mongolia following a conviction on corruption charges that his supports say is politically motivated. Former President, Enkhbayar Nambar is appealing his conviction and four-year prison sentence; the case is to be heard by the country's supreme court on Friday, according to a presidential confidant.

该党此举是为了抗议一位前蒙古国总统因腐败指控而被判入狱。前总统恩赫巴亚尔(Enkhbayar Nambar)的支持者说，指控是出于政治目的。恩赫巴亚尔被判处四年有期徒刑，他目前正在上诉。据他的一位密友说，此案周五将由蒙古国最高法院进行审理。

Chuluunbat Ochirbat, the country's deputy minister for economic development and a member of the party threatening defection, played down the situation Tuesday, saying 'negotiations are going on' with other coalition members.

蒙古国商务部副部长、蒙古人民革命党成员丘伦巴特(Chuluunbat Ochirbat)周二淡化处理了这个问题，说正在与执政联盟中的其他成员进行协商。

'It would be a stupid decision' to allow such political instability, 'especially after the global bond just issued,' he said.

他说，若任由这样的政治不稳定局面发生，将是愚蠢的决定，特别是在全球市场上刚刚发债之后。

The landlocked, resource-rich country sold $1.5 billion of five-year and 10-year bonds last week, the equivalent of about one-fifth the nation's annual economic output. The government received the money from the sale Wednesday.

蒙古国属内陆国家，蕴藏有丰富的资源。该国上周发行了15亿美元的五年期和10年期债券，约相当于该国年度经济产出的五分之一。周三，政府获得了此次发债筹集到的资金。

The five-year bonds, which were sold with an interest rate of 4.125%, traded for a yield of 4.68% Wednesday, a substantial sign of weakness, according to an investment banker familiar with the deal. Yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices. The 10-year bonds, sold to yield 5.125%, yielded 5.62% on Wednesday.

据一位了解这宗交易的投资银行家说，五年期债券的利率为4.125%，周三的收益率为4.68%，明显地显示出行情的低迷。债券的收益率与价格反向而动。10年期债券的利率为5.125%，周三的收益率为5.62%。

The bond sale had been a bit of good news after a number of economic hits to the country, until recently one of the hottest frontier markets.

在蒙古国经历了多重经济打击后，此次发债可算是一个好消息。直到不久前，该国一直是最受热捧的前沿市场之一。

High inflation, profligate government spending, uncertainty surrounding June parliamentary elections, and passage of a controversial foreign investment law last April have caused foreign investment to slow substantially.

但高通胀、盲目的政府支出、围绕今年6月议会选举的不确定性，以及去年4月通过的一项引发争议的外国投资法，这些都造成外国投资增速大幅放缓。

Mongolia has a population of just 2.8 million in a land mass four times the size of Germany. A former Communist satellite of the Soviet Union, it has had a parliamentary democracy since the 1990s and pursued a free-market economic policy. Discoveries of vast deposits of copper and coal in recent years, and the country's proximity to China, have made it one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

蒙古国人口只有280万，而面积却是德国的四倍。该国曾是苏联的共产主义盟友之一，上世纪90年代以来一直实行议会民主制，并推行自由市场经济政策。近年来，该国探明了大量铜和煤炭储量，加上该国与中国接壤，这些都使其成为全球增长最快的经济体之一。

Mr. Chuluunbat, the deputy minister for economic development and a former head of the central bank, said Tuesday that the government wants foreigners to put in $2-$3 for every dollar that Mongolia provides to develop railways and other infrastructure to exploit the Central Asian country's vast mineral resources.

蒙古商务部副部长、前央行行长丘伦巴特周二说，为开发铁路等基础设施、以便开发国内丰富的矿产资源，政府希望外国投资者和蒙古按2:1到3:1的比例投资。

But it isn't clear if the plan is feasible, given uncertainty among some investors about investing in Mongolia.

但考虑到部分投资者对于投资蒙古的不确定心理，不清楚这个方案是否可行。

Calls by some government officials to renegotiate an investment agreement with mining giant Rio Tinto RIO.LN +3.05%PLC over the massive Oyu Tolgoi copper and gold mine also have created uncertainty.

部分政府官员要求与矿业巨头力拓(Rio Tinto)重新谈判一项有关大型铜、金矿山奥尤陶勒盖(Oyu Tolgoi)的投资协议，这也带来了不确定性。

Mr. Chuluunbat said the foreign investment law is slated to be revised after an outcry from the business community. He said draft amendments to the law have been submitted to the Cabinet for review before going to Parliament.

丘伦巴特说，蒙古的外商投资法在激起商界的强烈反对后，将被重新修订。他说，该法的修正案草案已经提交内阁审议，然后将提交给国会。

The amendments would ease the threshold for key projects to need parliamentary approval, from the current $75 million to around $850 million. Parliamentary approval of the amendments, however, isn't a given in Mongolia's rough-and-tumble democracy.

修正案将把需要国会批准的重要投资项目的认定下限从目前的投资金额7,500万美元提高到8.5亿美元左右。但在蒙古乱哄哄的民主体制中，并不能保证修正案会得到国会批准。

Mr. Chuluunbat said Mongolia will look to issue more international debt in six to 12 months, after 'demonstrating that we are serious enough to handle the injections into the Mongolian economy, that the money is used for commercial projects and not for social handouts.'

丘伦巴特说，六个月到12个月之后，蒙古将继续谋求发行国际债券。他说，届时事实将会证明，我们对于注入蒙古经济的资金的处理是足够认真的，这些资金用在了商业项目中，没有拿去发放社会福利。

Mr. Chuluunbat said the government also plans to use proceeds from the recent bond to finance a secondary residential mortgage market in Mongolia, similar to the one provided by Fannie Mae FNMA 0.00%and Freddie Mac FMCC 0.00%in the U.S., with the government buying mortgages as bundled securities from private-sector banks.

丘伦巴特说，政府还打算利用最近发行债券的资金去支持蒙古一个二级住宅按揭市场，它类似于美国房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)提供的按揭市常具体办法是政府从私营银行手中收购证券化的按揭贷款。

That would drive interest rates lower while enabling banks to offer longer-duration mortgages, he said. Most mortgage loans in Mongolia currently are for five to seven years. Nonperforming loans in the country's domestic banks are low and interest rates are high--above 15%--so the mortgage purchases would be 'a very good business for the government,' he added.

他说，这将压低利率并使银行能够发放更长期限的按揭贷款。目前蒙古大部分按揭贷款都是五年期到七年期。他说，蒙古银行业不良贷款率较低，利率较高（超过15%），所以购买按揭贷款对政府来说将是一笔非常不错的生意。

On the economic front, Mr. Chuulunbaat predicted Mongolia's GDP growth would be 'not lower than 20%' in 2013, while inflation would be below 10%. The economy expanded 17% in 2011 before slowing to around 12% this year, according to an International Monetary Fund forecast, while inflation is running at 15%.

在经济方面，丘伦巴特预计蒙古2013年GDP增长率“不低于20%，同时通胀率将低于10%。蒙古经济2011年增长了17%，据国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)预测，今年的经济增长率将放缓至12%。目前蒙古的通胀率为15%。

Mr. Chuulunbaat said the local currency's exchange rate with the dollar would remain stable, with fluctuations of 7% or less in either direction over the next year.

丘伦巴特说，本币兑换美元的汇率将保持稳定，明年的涨跌幅度不会超过7%。

The local currency, known as the tugrik, is freely convertible, though the central bank intervenes to stabilize its level. The IMF noted the central bank has spent around $800 million stabilizing the tugrik since 2011.

蒙古货币图格里克可自由兑换，不过央行为稳定汇率会出手干预。国际货币基金组织说，为稳定图格里克汇率，2011年以来蒙古央行已经投入了8亿美元左右。