分析：台湾走向募兵制

Hsu Ruei-buo is one of the last Taiwanese men to be drafted to serve a year in the military and the college student looks forward to it, although he does not think his country needs him.

许睿博(音译）是台湾最后一批被征入伍的新兵中的一员。这名大学生对即将开始的一年期强制兵役十分期待，尽管他认为国家并不需要自己。

“To be honest, he says, “if there is really a war between China and Taiwan, it is barely possible for us to win.

许睿博说：“说句实话，如果中国和台湾真的打起来，我们几乎不可能打赢。

In January, Taiwan will stop drafting young men into active duty as it moves to a professional military designed to be “stronger, smaller, smarter, in the words of one retired officer. Taiwan will need to convince men such as Mr Hsu that they are needed as the country builds a force which strategists say will be better able to deter China, whose 2.3m-strong army is more than 10 times as large and whose growing defence budget is more than 14 times that of Taiwan.

明年1月起，台湾将停止征召年轻男性进入现役部队，开始转向募兵制，希望通过募兵制建立一支“更强、更精简、更整齐（如一位退役军官所说）的职业化军队。从那以后，台湾将需要说服像许睿博这样的年轻人相信，国家需要他们来组建一支将更有力地遏制中国的军队（如一些战略家所说）——尽管中国的现役总兵力逾230万人，是台湾的十倍以上，中国的国防预算也是台湾的14倍以上，并且还在逐年追加。

Tensions between Taiwan and China have long been seen as the most likely trigger of conflict between Washington and Beijing, as China claims the self-governed island as part of its sovereign territory. Cross-strait tensions have eased under Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou, who has advocated closer ties to the mainland and signed bilateral trade and investment deals. Yet China continues to invest heavily in its military forces, including missile batteries stationed on the coast facing Taiwan.

中国声称对目前处于自治状态的台湾岛拥有主权，台海两岸的紧张关系长期以来被视为最有可能引发中美冲突的因素。在台湾总统马英九(Ma Ying-jeou)任内，两岸的紧张关系有所缓解。马英九一直主张拉近台湾与大陆的关系，并签署了一系列双边贸易与投资协定。然而，中国仍持续加大对其军事力量的投入，包括对部署于台湾岛对岸海岸线上的炮台进行投入。

Taiwan’s move on military service will be a major cultural and strategic shift. The change comes with challenges, such as finding the budget to pay enough to make the military an attractive option, former officials and analysts say.

台湾兵役制度改革将成为文化及战略上的一次重大转变。一些前官员及分析人士认为，这一转变仍面临许多挑战，例如如何凑到足够的预算来支付兵饷，从而吸引年轻人从军。

The plan envisions an eventual professional army of about 215,000 soldiers, fewer than the 270,000 now in the force but better trained and serving tours of at least four years. Starting next year, men born after 1994 will still have to do four months of training but not the full year that conscripts now serve.

按照这一计划的设想，最终的职业化军队兵力将为约21.5万人，比目前的27万人要少，不过，士兵们将更加训练有素，他们的服役期限也将不少于四年。从明年开始，1994年以后出生的男性不再需要像现在的应征入伍者一样服役一整年，但他们仍必须参加为期四个月的“军事征训。

Current and former soldiers say the end of the draft will change Taiwanese society, as men will no longer, share the camaraderie that Mr Hsu says has long been “one good common topic to bond over.

现役和退役士兵们表示，强制征兵制的终结将改变台湾社会，因为男人们之间将不再有战友情谊可以分享。许睿博说，长期以来，这种战友情谊是人们联络情感一个“非常好的常用话题。

Strategically, the change means Taiwan can focus on training elite and longer- serving troops such as pilots and naval crews who use the nation’s high-tech weapons systems, says Parris Chang, an opposition leader and former deputy head of Taiwan’s national security council.

台湾一位反对党领导人、前国家安全会议副秘书长张旭成(Parris Chang)表示，从战略上说，这一改变意味着台湾能专注于训练精英化并能长期服役的士兵——比如使用台湾高科技武器系统的空军飞行员或海军士兵。

“In practice, however, says Arthur Ding, an academic specialising in military affairs, “I’m not so confident.

然而，研究军事事务的学者丁树范(Arthur Ding)表示：“事实上，我对这一点不是很有信心。

A big concern, say Mr Ding and Mr Chang, is that Taiwan is not fully prepared for the cost of transition. While military spending in countries such as China, Japan and South Korea has risen sharply, Taiwan’s has fallen slightly, at $10bn last year compared with $10.8bn in 2008.

丁树范和张旭成都认为，一个很大的问题是，台湾对改变兵役制度所需成本准备不足。在中日韩等国家大幅提高了军费开支的同时，台湾的军费开支却略有下降，去年仅为100亿美元，低于2008年的108亿美元。

Because volunteers are paid higher salaries than conscripts, spending on personnel has risen. Even without the financial pressure that will come with professionalising the military, personnel costs ac-counted for 49 per cent of the 2012 defence budget and that figure is expected to grow. The numbers have prompted US officials to warn that the rising cost of salaries could cut into allocation of funding for training and force readiness, says a report by the non-partisan US congressional research service.

因为支付给志愿兵的薪水要比支付比义务兵的更高，兵饷开支已经增加。即便不考虑军队职业化将会带来的财政压力，兵饷成本在2012年国防预算中已占到49%，这一比例预计还会增加。美国国会无党派研究机构的一份报告指出，以上数字令美国一些官员发出警告称，不断增长的兵饷成本可能挤占训练和军备准备的资金配额。

Another question is whether Taiwanese want to volunteer. Last year, the military recruited slightly more than 4,300 soldiers, just half its target, according to research by Taiwan’s legislature.

另一个问题是台湾人是否愿意志愿从军。台湾立法机关的研究发现，去年军队募兵人数刚过4300，只完成募兵计划的一半。

“There will be some people who want to learn?.?.?.how to shoot, and, of course, because there’s some really good benefits.?.?.?some people who are under some bad situation economically would probably choose to be in it, says one conscript.

一名义务兵说：“有些人真的会想学习……如何射击，另外，当然了，因为志愿兵的福利真的非常不错……有些经济状况比较糟糕的人可能会选择当志愿兵。

The historic tensions that divided families who have been in Taiwan for centuries and those who arrived in the 1940s after fleeing war on the Chinese mainland have faded. Yet economic inequality between the country’s north and south remains pronounced.

在台湾，有祖祖辈辈生活在台湾的本省人，也有上世纪40年代为逃避战乱从大陆迁来的外省人。本省人和外省人之间的关系在历史上曾经非常紧张，但如今，这种紧张关系已逐渐消失。不过，台湾北部与南部经济发展的不均衡仍然非常明显。

Shared army service helped pave over some of those divides, says former conscript Wu Jing-jie, now a graduate student. He says conscription brought to-gether people who would rarely meet as civilians. “A man eight years younger than me and he never went to high school, he was my best friend in the army, says Mr Wu. He adds that the younger generation, who do not have to serve, “get something good and they lose another thing better at the same time.

曾经当过义务兵、现在在读研究生的吴敬杰（音译）表示，共同的服兵役经历有助于部分消除这种差异。他说，原本几乎不可能会相遇的人，可能会因一起服兵役而成为战友。“我服兵役时，最好的朋友是一个比我小八岁、从来没上过高中的人。吴敬杰补充说，不必服兵役的年轻一代“有得有失，失去的多于得到的。