缅甸是金矿还是陷阱？

Private-equity firms are divided over whether Myanmar will be a source of huge profits, or just another place to endure losses.

缅甸是巨额利润的源头，亦或只是又一个让人亏钱的地方？在这个问题上，私募股权行业出现了分歧。

Some private-equity funds already are scrambling to raise cash to pour into the Southeast Asian nation, which has only just cracked open to Western investors after a secretive military junta stepped down in 2011. They see big opportunities in health care, real estate and other businesses that were starved of capital during five decades of military rule, while other Asian nations zoomed ahead. Yet many other firms, including big-name players such as KKR & Co. and Blackstone Group LP, are holding back.

部分私募股权投资基金已经在急急忙忙地筹集资金投入这个东南亚国家。2011年行事诡秘的军政府下台之后，缅甸刚刚向西方投资者开放。50年军事统治期间，在其他亚洲国家快速发展之际，缅甸的医疗、地产等行业极度缺乏资金，因此私募公司从中看到了巨大的机遇。但还有很多公司按兵不动，比如KKR & Co.和黑石集团(Blackstone Group LP)等知名品牌。

The clash of views has important implications for Myanmar, which struggled to raise money during the years of military control and still has limited options for tapping international finance, despite more than a year of reforms. Western governments have lifted most of the sanctions they imposed over the past two decades to punish Myanmar for alleged human-rights violations.

这种观点的碰撞对于缅甸有着重要的意义。缅甸在军政府统治期间筹资困难，而目前在改革了一年多之后，利用国外资金的渠道仍然有限。西方国家过去20年为惩罚所谓缅甸侵犯人权而施加的制裁措施，大部分已经取消。

But while multinational firms such as General Electric Co. GE -0.90% and PepsiCo Inc. PEP +0.16% are looking for opportunities in Myanmar, many have focused mainly on selling products here rather than investing capital to build factories or other assets. To make matters worse, local banks still don't have lending systems in place to finance many major corporate expansions.

但在通用电气(General Electric Co.)和百事(PepsiCo Inc.)等跨国公司到缅甸寻找机会之际，很多公司主要侧重于在缅甸销售产品，而不是投资建厂或投资于其他资产。更糟的是，当地银行仍然没有建立起为很多重要企业扩张活动提供资金的贷款体系。

Silk Road Finance, an investment firm that recently opened an office in Yangon, says it has raised $25 million so far from private investors. Cube Capital, an investment company with offices in London and Hong Kong and $1.3 billion under management, recently invested in two Myanmar property deals worth more than $20 million. The firm is looking to raise up to $200 million for deals in several emerging Asian markets, with about one-fourth of the funds targeting Myanmar.

投资公司Silk Road Finance最近在仰光开了一家办事处。该公司说，目前为止它已经从私人投资者手中筹集资金2,500万美元。在伦敦和香港都有办事机构、管理资产13亿美元的投资公司Cube Capital，最近投资了缅甸的两笔房地产生意，价值逾2,000万美元。该公司打算筹集最多2亿美元的资金用来投资亚洲的多个新兴市场，约四分之一的资金以缅甸为目标。

Others in the hunt include Leopard Capital, whose chairman is veteran emerging-markets fund manager Marc Faber, which is seeking to raise $150 million for two Myanmar-focused funds. Bagan Capital, with offices in Hong Kong and Myanmar, is also seeking to scoop up $75 million for Myanmar deals.

其他追逐机会的公司还包括资深新兴市场基金经理麦嘉华(Marc Faber)任董事长的Leopard Capital。该公司计划为两只以缅甸为主要投资对象的基金筹资1.5亿美元。在香港和缅甸都有办事处的Bagan Capital也打算为投资缅甸筹集7,500万美元。

Some investors, however, worry that the political and economic risks in Myanmar are still too big, and that asset prices are getting pushed beyond reasonable levels. Others figure any deals to be had will simply be too small.

但部分投资者担心缅甸的政治经济风险依然太大，并担心资产价格已被哄抬至不合理的水平。另一些投资者则认为，要投资的话，投资规模实在太校

And there are lingering questions about legal protections for foreign investors, and how the funds will be able to exit their investments even if they do well. Myanmar has no corporate bond market or stock exchange of note, and only a rudimentary banking system, limiting the ability of investors to cash out of their investments through the local markets.

对外国投资者的法律保护如何，以及即使投资业绩不错，基金公司能不能退出，这些都是投资者心中悬而未决的疑问。缅甸缺乏有一定分量的公司债券市场或股票市场，只有一个不成熟的银行系统，所以投资者很难通过当地市场将其投资套现。

'I assure you that all the projects now in Myanmar will fail,' said John Van Oost, founder and managing partner of Yishan Capital Partners, an investment firm with offices in Singapore and Indonesia that specializes in real estate. Land prices already are too inflated there, he said, and it isn't yet clear which local partners are reliable.

在新加坡和印度尼西亚设有办事机构、专注于房地产的投资公司Yishan Capital Partners的执行合伙人John Van Oost说，我向你保证，目前缅甸的所有项目都将倒闭。他说，缅甸地价已经太高，而且当地的哪些合作伙伴可靠也还不清楚。

'A lot of people are rushing into Myanmar. We don't think that market's ready,' said Ming Lu, regional leader for KKR in Southeast Asia.

KKR东南亚地区负责人路明说，很多人都在涌向缅甸，而我们认为这个市场还没有做好准备。

To be sure, business leaders, both foreign and local, widely expect Myanmar to become one of Asia's fastest-growing economies if overhauls continue. But a failure by companies to get capital from outside investors could delay economic growth. In turn, a sputtering economy could dash the hopes of Myanmar's 60 million people, many of whom are expecting to see benefits from recent changes.

诚然，缅甸国内外商界领袖都普遍预计，如果改革继续进行，缅甸将成为亚洲增长最快的经济体之一。但如果企业不能从境外投资者手中获得资金，经济增长就有可能遇到阻碍。而如果经济发展不顺利，则有可能浇灭缅甸6,000万人的希望。很多缅甸人都期待能够从最近的改革当中获益。

More skeptical private-equity players in Asia say they have learned from previous market openings─especially Vietnam in the 1990s─that first movers don't always make money, in part because changes rarely move as quickly as investors hope.

对此表示更加怀疑的亚洲私募投资者说，他们从过去某些国家开放市场（特别是90年代的越南）的过程中领教到，先行者未必挣钱。这在一定程度上是因为改革的进度很少像投资者希望的那样快。

Myanmar also has seen private-equity investments go sour before, during a brief economic opening in the 1990s. Still, more adventurous investors are betting that they will be able to secure relationships with the most reputable local entrepreneurs and lock up some of the best opportunities.

缅甸以前也出现过私募投资失败的案例。这些投资发生在90年代一场短暂的经济开放期间。但是，更有冒险精神的投资者觉得，他们将能够与当地最有声望的企业家建立关系，从而锁定一部分良机。

'It's the first in, the early mover, that benefits from the best deals and the best relationships,' said Kenneth Stevens, a managing partner at Leopard Capital.

Leopard Capital执行合伙人史蒂文斯(Kenneth Stevens)说，受益于最佳交易、最佳关系的，是第一批进入的人，也就是先行者。