让2013成为危机转折点

It was a short week for markets. Monday awaited the fiscal cliff showdown in Washington; Tuesday was lost to the new year holiday. The three days left gave traders plenty of time to put on a fireworks display of market moves.

本周对市场来说是短暂的一周。周一在等待华盛顿就财政悬崖问题摊牌的过程中度过，周二是新年假期。剩下的三天里，交易员们有大量时间来一场烟火表演，让市场呈现令人眼光缭乱的走势。

In the first hours of 2013, Washington split the difference on the $600bn-a-year fiscal tightening that would have come without a deal. They went a third of the way down the cliff, eliminated another third, and postponed the last for reconsideration in March. Across the board, markets reacted to the deal hammered out on Capitol Hill with big bounces: stocks, bonds and commodities tacked strongly from Wednesday to Friday.

2013年的头几个小时，华盛顿方面就每年6000亿美元的财政紧缩问题达成了妥协——假如没有达成协议，紧缩措施就会生效。他们走下了三分之一的“悬崖，消除了三分之一，将剩余的三分之一推迟到3月份再考虑。国会敲定协议后，市场全线大幅反弹：股票、债券和大宗商品价格从周三到周五强劲攀升。

Equity markets jumped after the mini-deal was announced: since the start of the year, stocks are up by more than 2 per cent in all the big markets. This undid the flagging sentiment from the end of 2012. These swings, however, are merely the last twitch on a longer upward slope. Equities have been rising since November.

“迷你协议宣布之后，股市大涨：自进入2013年以来，所有主要市场的股票价格都上涨2%以上。2012年底的低迷气氛一扫而空。不过，这只是一波上涨行情最新的一次跳涨。这波上涨行情始于去年11月份。

This suggests a rally based on growth optimism and business confidence. So do America’s manufacturing expansion and robust if not pulse-quickening jobs numbers. The world’s largest economy added 155,000 jobs in December, continuing a trend from earlier months. While not an impressive number, it means that neither superstorm Sandy nor fiscal cliff nervousness made things worse.

这种情况表明，本轮反弹得益于市场对经济增长的乐观情绪以及商业信心。另外，美国制造业扩张、就业数据即使没到令人振奋的程度，也称得上表现强劲，都对市场提供了支撑。作为世界最大经济体，美国去年12月新增就业岗位15.5万个，延续了几个月以来的好势头。尽管这个数字并不是特别出色，但这意味着，不管是桑迪飓风(Sandy)，还是财政悬崖问题造成的紧张情绪，都没有导致形势恶化。

Investors’ waning fear of sluggish growth would explain a steep slide in haven assets, too. The sovereign bonds of the US, UK, and core eurozone states such as Germany have cheapened fast in the past week. A more disheartening interpretation is that this reflects inflation fears as well as growth hopes. That is logical: the fiscal cliff mini-deal demonstrated US politicians’ preference for postponing hard choices on public finances. If a grand bargain on tax rises and spending cuts is unlikely, the default expectation must be that US public debt will be kept manageable by higher inflation. An American inflation spell would spill over to the rest of the world.

投资者对经济增长乏力的担忧逐渐减轻，可能也解释了避险资产价格的急剧下跌。美国、英国以及德国等欧元区核心国家的主权债券价格过去一周以来大幅下跌。关于这种情况，一个更悲观的解读是，这既反映了市场对经济增长抱有希望，也反映出人们对通胀的担忧。这种解读是合乎逻辑的：关于财政悬崖的迷你协议表明，美国政界倾向于尽量推迟就公共财政问题做出艰难抉择。如果就增税和减支达成全面妥协的可能性几乎不存在，那么人们自然就会预期，只有提高通胀率，美国的公共债务才能免于失控，而美国的通胀压力可能向世界其它地方溢出。

Thus gold, that fine gauge of inflation allergy, rose quickly at the turn of the year. As if on cue, the Federal Reserve’s delayed minutes came in more hawkish than many expected, and gold quickly sank below where it started.

因此，对通胀最敏感的黄金价格开年后迅速上涨。果然，美联储(Fed)推迟发布的会议记录显示，联储官员在通胀问题上的立场比许多人预料的更加强硬。金价随后迅速跌到新年起始水位之下。

The good news is that if inflation fears abated, renewed confidence about potential growth seemed not to. Stocks kept their gains. Money left haven bonds but it supported peripheral Europe. Italy and Spain’s 10-year benchmark yields fell by about 20 basis points in three days; Greece and Portugal’s by more than 50. If this upbeat start to the year continues, 2013 could be a turning point in the crisis. But a transatlantic tendency to make a hash of economic policy makes that too daring a hope.

好消息是，如果说人们对通胀的担忧有所减轻，但对增长前景重燃的信心似乎并未减弱。股市没有回吐涨幅。资金撤离了避险债券，但为欧元区外围国家的债券提供了支撑。意大利和西班牙基准的十年期国债收益率三天内下跌约20个基点，希腊和葡萄牙的这一收益率下跌逾50个基点。如果今年开年这种乐观的势头保持下去，2013年将成为危机的转折点。然而，大西洋两岸各国往往把经济政策搞得一团糟，因此，这种希望很可能是奢望。