美联储官员对QE3期限产生分歧

Officials at the US Federal Reserve are split on whether to keep buying assets until the end of 2013, according to the minutes of their December meeting.

美联储(US Federal Reserve)12月份会议的纪要显示，该机构官员对于要不要将购买资产的措施延续到2013年底存在分歧。

The minutes show the new front line for debate on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee and give the first indication of how big the Fed’s third round of quantitative easing – so-called QE3 – may be in total.

会议纪要显示了负责制定汇率的联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Open Market Committee, FOMC)新的辩论前沿，并首次发出美联储第三轮量化宽松(QE3)可能总体规模的信号。

If the Fed keeps buying at the current pace of $85bn a month for the rest of 2013, it would accumulate another $1tn in long-term assets.

如果美联储在2013年的剩余时间里继续按每月850亿美元的速度购买资产，它将积累额外的1万亿美元长期资产。

Under the QE3 programme, launched last September, the Fed is buying long-dated Treasury and mortgage-backed securities to drive down long-term interest rates and stimulate the sluggish economic recovery.

按照去年9月启动的QE3计划，美联储正在购买美国长期国债和抵押贷款支持证券，以压低长期利率，刺激乏力的经济复苏。

According to the minutes, a “few of the 12 voting FOMC members want to keep buying assets until the end of 2013. They are backed by a “few more who want “considerable accommodation but did not set a date. But “several other members want “to slow or to stop purchases well before the end of 2013 and one member opposes them altogether.

会议纪要表明，12名拥有投票权的FOMC成员中，有“几个人希望将购买资产的措施延续至2013年底。还有“几个人对此给予支持，他们希望进行“大幅宽松，但没有确定具体日期。不过，还有“数名成员希望“在2013年底之前放慢或停止购买，还有一名成员全盘反对资产购买。

In standard Fed language, a few means two or three, while several might be four or five. That suggests the committee is evenly split. New voting members will rotate on to the FOMC in 2013 but they are unlikely to change its behaviour much.

在美联储的标准语言中，“几个人等于2到3人，而“数名也许是4到5人。这似乎表明委员会分歧的双方势均力敌。2013年，新一批投票成员将轮换进入FOMC，但他们不太可能改变FOMC的行为方式。

At its December meeting the Fed said it expected to keep rates low until unemployment falls below 6.5 per cent, as long as inflation is expected to stay below 2.5 per cent. It said it would continue QE3 until there was a substantial improvement in the labour market.

美联储曾在12月份的会议上表示，只要预期的通胀率低于2.5%，它便希望将利率保持低位，直到失业率降至6.5%以下。美联储称，将继续实施QE3，直到劳动力市场出现明显好转。

The Fed has not defined what a “substantial improvement would look like, but it forecasts unemployment to be between 7.4 and 7.7 per cent at the end of 2013, suggesting that might be enough to bring QE3 to a halt. The unemployment rate is 7.7 per cent today.

美联储并未界定“明显好转究竟是什么样的局面，但该机构预计2013年底失业率将在7.4%至7.7%之间，似乎表明那可能足以结束QE3。目前美国失业率为7.7%。

The minutes suggest that there was little opposition to introducing the 6.5 per cent unemployment threshold for raising interest rates.

会议纪要表明，把提高利率的失业率门槛设定在6.5%，没有遭遇什么反对意见。

A “few participants in the meeting wanted to use words to describe the condition for raising interest rates, because they thought that would work just as well as numbers, without the risk of being mistaken for new Fed targets.

有“几个与会者希望用词语来描述提高利率的条件，他们认为词语能够起到与数字一样的作用，且不会被误认为美联储的新目标。

But a “number of other participants thought that could be solved by an explanation at chairman Ben Bernanke’s press conference and “most were in favour of the change overall.

但其他“多名与会者认为，这一问题可通过本·伯南克(Ben Bernanke)主席的资讯发布会得到解释，总体来看，“多数人赞同做出改变。