投资东南亚股市须谨慎

China and India are Southeast Asia’s big fat neighbours. They always steal the limelight when it comes to investing in Asia. The capitalisation of the MSCI Southeast Asia index, which includes many of Asia’s other fast-growing economies, is just 2 per cent of that of the global index. But it has outperformed its global peer by a resounding three times over the past three years. What’s not to like?

中国和印度是东南亚国家的两大邻国。在投资于亚洲的话题上，这两个国家始终最引人注意。包括亚洲其他快速发展经济体在内的摩根士丹利资本国际东南亚指数(MSCI Southeast Asia index)的市值仅为其全球指数的2%，但该指数过去三年的表现，比全球指数高出3倍，令人瞩目，怎能令人不满意？

Past performance is, of course, not an indicator of the future. Southeast Asian equities now look expensive. Macquarie estimates that profit margins are starting to peak. Moreover, individual countries have their own particular challenges that investors should bear in mind for 2013. Consider the Philippines. Its benchmark index trades on 18 times forward earnings, the highest in a decade. Yet the country’s economy may stall from here. Strong domestic demand and a low base will probably push up inflation next year, for example, which would argue for a reversal of Manila’s relatively loose monetary policy. As for Indonesia, weak prices for soft commodities are pressuring its current account and accentuating the risks of currency instability and capital outflows. The Jakarta market has underperformed; that could well continue in 2013.

过去的成绩肯定不等于未来。东南亚各国股票目前已经显得比较昂贵。麦格理(Macquarie)估计，利润率开始达到峰值。此外，各国都面临自己特有的挑战，投资者在2013年投资时应注意这一点。以菲律宾为例，该国基准指数的预期市盈率达到18倍，为10年来的最高水平。然而菲律宾的经济发展可能就此止步。例如，由于内需强劲和基数较低，明年的通胀水平可能上升，这将让人们有理由要求马尼拉方面逆转相对宽松的货币政策。就印尼而言，由于软性大宗商品价格低迷，该国经常账户承压，加剧了汇率不稳定和资本外流的风险。印尼股市表现不佳，2013年很可能同样如此。

Malaysia was the largest market in Asia after Hong Kong for initial public offerings in 2012. Felda, a palm plantation, raised $3bn in a listing in June; even so, cornerstone investors took the largest chunk. Its economy is also facing a fall in soft commodity prices. And Malaysian consumer debt remains the highest in the region at more than three quarters of economic output. So economic growth is sensitive to any future rate rises. Thailand is suffering from falling exports and a consumption story boosted onlyby temporary subsidies.

2012年，马来西亚成为亚洲第二大IPO市场，仅次于香港。棕榈树种植商Felda今年6月上市筹资30亿美元；即便如此，“基石投资者(cornerstone investors)仍占据最大的份额。马来西亚经济同样面临软性大宗商品价格下降的影响。马来西亚消费者债务与经济产出的比例超过四分之三，依然是该地区的最高水平。因此该国未来任何的利率上升都将影响其经济增长。泰国正面临出口日益下降和消费仅由临时补贴推动的问题。

Singapore looks cheap, but its openness to foreign investment makes it vulnerable to the global economy, where there is still little to get excited about. It would be wise to tread warily.

新加坡的股票看起来很便宜，但由于该国对外国资本开放，它很容易受到全球经济的影响，而全球经济仍没有任何惊喜可言。谨慎行事将是明智的做法。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析