Lex专栏：今年IPO市场表现欠佳

IPO bankers will not remember 2012 fondly. The market has been dismal: so far this year $119bn has been raised in 768 initial public offerings, down from $170bn in 1,225 IPOs in 2011. That has forced the bankers to crowd on to those flotations that have been available: the average number of bookrunners on global deals worth more than $500m is up from four to six. And the year’s largest and most glitzy IPO turned out to be a disaster. Facebook shares are still 30 per cent below their float price and Morgan Stanley has been fined $5m for its conduct during the IPO.

2012年应不会给操作首次公开发行(IPO)的银行家们留下太美好的回忆。这一年市场一直表现欠佳：迄今为止，今年共有768宗IPO，融资总额达1190亿美元，都不如去年。2011年共有1225宗IPO，融资总额达1700亿美元。这迫使银行家们蜂拥争夺有限的IPO机会：在全球融资规模高于5亿美元的IPO中，平均每一宗的账簿管理人数量从4家增至6家。今年规模最大、最具轰动效应的IPO则成了一场灾难。Facebook的股价至今仍比发行价低30%，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)则因其在此次IPO中的违规行为被罚款500万美元。

Still, consultants at Ernst and Young are undaunted. They expect a pick-up in IPO activity next year, arguing that rising share prices, low volatility in equity markets, and brighter economic prospects will spur a recovery in flotations, especially in the second half.

不过，安永(Ernst and Young)的顾问没有被今年的市况所吓倒。他们预期明年IPO数量会有所增加，理由是股价上涨、股市波动性降低以及经济前景更加光明，都将刺激企业积极寻求上市，尤其是在下半年。

But that would happen only if potential buyers were to have confidence in what is on offer, and evidence from 2012 is mixed. The top 20 IPOs of the year are up by an average of 6 per cent since they floated, and within that group there are slightly more up (11) than down. But that performance is beaten by the 18 per cent improvement in the MSCI World index during the year. Even stripping out the Facebook debacle, the index has beaten the IPOs. Why invest in a risky flotation if the index will do better?

但只有在潜在买家对上市企业有信心时，上述预期才会变成现实。而2012年的迹象则让人喜忧参半。今年IPO融资额最高的20家公司，自发行以来的股价平均涨幅达到6%。其中，股价上涨的公司（11家）略多于股价下跌的公司。但这一表现远逊于今年摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数(MSCI World index)18%的涨幅。即便不把Facebook股价的大跌计算在内，MSCI全球指数依然完胜IPO市常既然该指数表现更出色，那又何必投资于充满风险的IPO呢？

Only, perhaps, if the sellers provide a convincing reason to do so. What is notable about 2012’s IPOs is that those sellers that had the most pressing reasons to get the deal away provided their buyers with the most attractive prices. Shares in Direct Line, which Royal Bank of Scotland was required to sell by the EU, are up 12 per cent since its IPO in October. Shares in Santander Mexico, floated in order to provide its Spanish parent with capital, are up by a third since its IPO. And shares in the largest four private equity-backed flotations are up by an average of 9 per cent. If that is not light at the end of the tunnel for IPO bankers, it is perhaps a sign of how to get there.

除非卖家能提供令人信服的理由。2012年IPO的一个显著特点是，最迫切希望IPO的卖家，向买家提出了最具吸引力的价格。Direct Line自10月份IPO以来，股价上涨12%。该公司是苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)在欧盟(EU)的要求下出售的。桑坦德银行墨西哥分行(Santander Mexico)的股价自IPO以来上涨幅达到三分之一。该行上市旨在为其西班牙母公司筹集资金。四家IPO融资额最高的得过私人股权支持的公司，其股价平均涨幅达到9%。这对负责IPO业务的银行家们来说，即便算不上苦尽甘来，或许也是熬出头的迹象。

Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评，对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析