WASHINGTON, May 29 -- The U.S.-initiated tariff conflict with China will substantially diminish investment and undermine productivity growth if staying in place for longer, experts from a Washington-based think tank have said.
Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), said at a press briefing on Tuesday that if the United States goes full out on the tariffs, the direct impact would be overall increases in inflation, with low income households hit harder than others.
Despite an expected drag on growth, Posen, drawing on works by his colleagues, said the impact of additional tariffs could be partially offset by fiscal or monetary measures in both countries, so the direct effects are "meaningful but not huge."
However, in the medium term, the effects on investment and productivity growth are "substantial," he said.
"Removing the attractiveness of foreign direct investment not just in supply chains but in branded goods and in business services ... is significant," Posen said.
In the long run, Posen said, "you can end up with a very substantial disruption to the most productive parts of the U.S. economy for a couple of years."
Nicholas Lardy, a senior fellow at the think tank, said he does not see a significant impact on China's GDP growth this year.
Lardy, who has written several books on the Chinese economy, said it would probably be "not so smart" for companies to massively move supply chains away from China, because it would be difficult to find a place that could "absorb that big an increase."
In addition to economic impact, Posen said the United States, by imposing tariffs, has sent a "disruptive" message to China and other countries, which could "divide the world" on important issues.
The group of experts, who visited China earlier this month, are also concerned about increased frictions on the investment and high tech fronts.
"The broader tech conflict is much more harmful on the engine of the U.S. economy," Posen said, noting that the U.S. administration's "broad export control regime" would likely impede cross border technology flows.
Such frictions may also make it harder for the United States and China to close a deal, as the depth of mistrust is growing, said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow at the PIIE.
"Clearly we are much further away from a deal than we were at the end of April," he said, yet adding that he does not think "the door is shut."
下半年大学英语六级考试阅读考试训练三
十步教你提高英语四六级阅读速度
英语六级考试冲刺阅读精选二
英语六级考试冲刺阅读精选十二
写作技巧:掌握评卷得分要点
大学英语四六级阅读训练(四)
英语六级考试冲刺阅读精选三
“PPT原理”破解大学英语六级阅读理解
英语六级考试冲刺阅读精选十六
大学英语四六级阅读训练(二)
大学英语四六级阅读训练(三)
阅读资料:苹果前CEO乔布斯去世
支招:大学英语六级考试阅读理解的三大境界
英语六级考试阅读速成宝典:如何猜词
六级阅读:给你逃离“舒适区”的六个理由
迅速提高英语四六级阅读能力的绝招
12月英语六级听力冲刺:难点解析
英语六级阅读备考常见六大问题
12月英语四六级考试阅读专项练习(29)
下半年大学英语六级考试阅读考试训练四
四六级考前30天常见18大困惑全解密
英语六级考试冲刺阅读精选十一
英语六级考试冲刺阅读精选十
英语六级考试冲刺阅读精选十七
英语六级考试冲刺阅读精选六
英语六级阅读理解题冲刺辅导
英语六级考试阅读
大学英语六级阅读中的填空题型
12月英语CET6快速阅读锦囊妙计
冲刺技巧:大学英语六级阅读中的填空题型
不限 |
英语教案 |
英语课件 |
英语试题 |
不限 |
不限 |
上册 |
下册 |
不限 |